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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series
January 29, 2026
Who Still Listens To AM Radio?
January 28, 2026
Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins
January 27, 2026
What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory
January 26, 2026
What A Winter
January 20, 2026
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
January 19, 2026
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
January 15, 2026
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
January 14, 2026
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
January 13, 2026
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
January 12, 2026
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
January 8, 2026
The Consent Fallacy
January 7, 2026
On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
January 6, 2026
Register Your Predictions For 2026!
January 5, 2026
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2026
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
December 31, 2025
Why The Drake Equation Fails
December 30, 2025
Posted inStatistics

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Posted by By Briggs February 9, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Posted by By Briggs February 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inFun Statistics

Scam Targets Anti-Apartheid Environmentalists Concerned About Climate Change

The headline boomed "CLIMATE CHANGE AWARENESS FUND ($900.000.00)". Even better, it was sent from the Nelson Mandela Foundation (nmf.unfccc12@att.net). Subject: Climate Change Awareness Fund. The opening line is a teaser,…
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Posted inStatistics

Certain Oral Activities Linked To Intercourse Onset, New Research Suggests

I am thinking of changing the name of this blog to "New Research Suggests", for these three words begin most press releases announcing dubious "scientific" results. Whoever first thought of…
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Posted inCulture

A Depressing Day, With Some Hope

The election is over and, in large measure, the populace once more voted to continue voting itself funds taken from "other" people. Oh, sure, in some areas like Florida, the…
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Posted inStatistics

Alcohol More Harmful Than Heroin Or Cocaine?

Belly up to the bar, boys. Have a snort! Reach into that pile of needles and raise them high. I'd like to propose a toast to Professors David Nutt [sic],…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

How Much Math Do We Really Need?

That title was lifted from a Washington Post essay by G.V. Ramanathan, a professor emeritus of mathematics, statistics and computer science at the University of Illinois at Chicago. For my…
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Posted inPhilosophy

High Priests Of (Climate) Science

"And thy response shall be: 'Nothing hear our prayer'," said the high priest of the Church of Science. "Nothing hear our prayer," intoned the congregation. "For we shall be a…
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Posted inStatistics

Being Against Climate Change Legislation Is Just Like Being For Slavery

Or so implies Andrew J. Hoffman, current sitter in the cushy Holcim chair at the University of Michigan, and writer of the peer-reviewed (I'm guessing) article "Climate change as a…
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Posted inStatistics

Influential Forecasts

If I tell you that the price of a stock is going to increase and you believe me enough to rush out and buy that stock, the price of that…
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  1. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026

    C-Marie, I knew you could.

  2. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026

    Andrew, No, they're just bad model predictions. See the "hallucination" article I referenced.

  3. Andrew P Partington on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Gödel’s incompleteness theorem proves that no apparently complete logical system can rule out the paradox (“this sentence is not true”)…

  4. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  5. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

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