William M. Briggs

Replacements for Representation: Bayes From the Ground Up

A primary justification for Bayesian probability is De Finetti's representation theorem, which is stated like this. You are to observe a sequence of 0s and 1s, "failures" and "successes" if…

Philosophy Statistics

Finitism, Physics, Cellular Automata: The Universe as Logic

In no way is this article meant to be complete. It is more in the way of musings---a crude introduction---so that we can see where to go. Is the universe…

Philosophy Statistics

Postmodernism and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Since I am, by nature, a compassionate individual, I had been thinking of how we might Sokal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). It is for their…

Statistics

Feigned Surprises of the Week: Journolist and Our New Tax

Said the main-stream journalist on Journolist, "If they of the right wing don't behave and treat our Golden Boy properly, we'll call them racists. It matters not whom we pick…

Fun Statistics

A Bust—I mean must—Read; Or, An Evolution in Bra Sizes

"Excuse me, miss. Would you care to participate in science?" Sometimes being a statistician is enviable. In a flash of scientific brilliance, Australian statisticians have just completed a massive study…

Fun Statistics

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

Part II of the Two-Envelope problem was not too friendly, so here's something that is. Via HotAir, I came across the site Marginal Revolution, in which was featured a graph…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Johnno on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026
This is your brain on the Theory of Evolution. Atheists should be restricted from any and all influential positions within…
John M on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026
My old brain still wants to read the acronym as the name Al (lower case L). That's why I like…
Brian (bulaoren) on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026
Can there be an "Artificial Intelligence" that does not contain "Artifacts"?
km on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 3, 2026
What happens if you choose not to participate?
Briggs on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026
Gareth, And thanks for the comment.

William M. Briggs

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Replacements for Representation: Bayes From the Ground Up

Finitism, Physics, Cellular Automata: The Universe as Logic

Postmodernism and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Feigned Surprises of the Week: Journolist and Our New Tax

A Bust—I mean must—Read; Or, An Evolution in Bra Sizes

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification