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Latest Articles
How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?
June 30, 2025
Class 56: The Best Model!
June 26, 2025
Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification
June 25, 2025
England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women
June 24, 2025
On The Probability Of God
June 23, 2025
Class 55: Models Vs Reality
June 19, 2025
AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output
June 18, 2025
The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition
June 17, 2025
The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example
June 16, 2025
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Posted inStatistics

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Posted by By Briggs June 30, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 56: The Best Model!

Posted by By Briggs June 26, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inCulture Fun

I suppose this is the highest praise journalists can now hope for

At least they're admitting it. Complete story here, sent in by reader Katie.
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: What Happens After Copenhagen?

Today's post is over at Pajamas Media. Some more predictions about what happens after Copenhagen ends. Example: a money deal will be reached. Recall that these are predictions, not desires.…
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Posted inFun

Several inches of global warming fell in Taiwan

It's about 10oC, with the mercury still dropping here in Taipei. In the mountains to the south, it is and has been snowing. The cold air is forecast to remain…
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Posted inFun

Wolf Blitzer interviews Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill

Repost Who could have guessed that a confessed mass murder and terrorist would have broken the law once more? It is reported that Mohmed al-Megrahi has jumped bail, thus embarrassing…
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part V, The real Grand Finale

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Much of what we discussed---but not all---is in this picture. Right click and open it in…
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part IV

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V How much patience do you have left? On and on and on about the fundamentals, and…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajama’s Media: Global warming accelerating once again

Surf on over to Pajamas Media for today's update. "I'm from the U.N. and I'm here to help."
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part III

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V We still have work to do. This is not simple stuff, and if we try and…
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  1. hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025

    I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…

  2. hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025

    > It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…

  3. Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.

  4. spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

  5. JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025

    How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

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