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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Posted by By Briggs April 27, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy

Are All Governments Destined For Failure?

Here's an experiment you can try at home. Gather a set of children's building blocks and form them into a square, flat on the floor. The square can be of…
Read More
Posted inCulture

Six-year-old Boy Holds Class Hostage, Uses Finger For Gun

The scene was tense Wednesday, 3 March, when Mason Jammer, a student at Jefferson Elementary in Ionia, Michigan held his kindergarten class hostage by fashioning his finger into the shape…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part I

Would you check the results of a model with another model? Before you answer, be sure you know what the question is. A model---whether it is physical, statistical, mathematical, or…
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Posted inCulture Fun

Use of Deadly Force Authorized Against Renegade Sea Lions

The deadliest force known to man---The Law of Unintended Consequences---has struck again. This time it has led to the deliberate slaughter of sea lions by armed agents of the U.S.…
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New Study Says iPhones Addictive: More Bad Statistics

(Note: I do not have an iPhone, nor "smart" phone of any kind.) Addiction is a strong word. It means, as the authors of the study are content to allow…
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  1. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  2. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  4. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

  5. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…

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