All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee. Sorry I’m slow answering emails.
Friends, I am swamped at the moment with this material, and with writing assignments related to it. I only have time to do a brief update on the models themselves, plus a few related comments.
If you’re in a hurry, skip to the end for a discussion on the political predictions: when will the lock downs end? The numbers of reported cases and deaths are only part, and probably only a small part, of that.
Do Lock Downs Work?
I’ll soon have more on this. You already know my answer: meh.
Here from one source are the reported curves (I can’t find China or Taiwan deaths, but maybe this tool only does cases for them).
See Sweden in the middle there? They didn’t have a lock down. Yet they survived and are coming out of it. Italy did, and survived and are coming out of it. Taiwan did not, and did best, and are pretty much out of it. 6 deaths; see a picture of cases here.
“How many deaths did you say for Taiwan, and without a lockdown?”
Six. Population 24 million.
Sure, they had mandatory quarantines of a handful of suspected cases and people arriving from dodgy countries, like England. But schools never closed, businesses didn’t close. Masks, the same news source said, became mandatory on public transportation a week back. Travel’s way down, too, reports say.
Behavior matters, of course. As do a host of other things, like composition of the population. Yet it appears a herd immunity strategy is doing just as well as full on PANIC! strategy we adopted. How many people lost their jobs, their businesses, their livelihoods, their homes, even their lives? And it’s not over. France just extended Yellow Vest Sequestration until 11 May.
The shape the curve for most countries is the same functional form, as we predicted it would be from day one (well, with warnings about looking at localities and not whole countries, etc.).
Like I said, I’ll have more on this soon, more quantitatively—especially about the models that got us into this mess. And I’ve said about flu, week after week, even in its worst years it comes and it goes with no active measures taken (see last week’s update). The same forces responsible for these trends must be at play with COVID-19. How did we forget that?
Meanwhile, here’s a thread saying the same thing:
New study out of Israel: COVID-19 timeline has 0 impact re lockdown or no lockdown.
"This is happening both in countries that have closed down & in those not closed … every country no matter its response. Decline & rise occur in same timeline." https://t.co/iEh30kPLTZ
— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) April 13, 2020
“This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore. In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears.”
Our Global Model
I cannot stress highly enough that these simple models are for reports of cases and deaths, and not actual cases and deaths.
One big problem with medical data, as I have warned from the beginning, is that it’s a mess. We have reports from all over the world, done in dozens of different ways, all more and less accurate, and are trying to make sense of a
As always, the data is current as of 8 PM EST Monday night.
Here are the global totals:
New reported case total: 2.3 million. New reported death total: 167,000. Last week the model said “Just under 2 million reported cases, and about 131 thousand reported deaths.” An increase in both, which will become clear in the dailies.
Daily reported cases:
If you recall the mini-update, it was posted on the day the reported cases spiked down, and I warned not to believe this would stick. Turns out the very next day it blasted off like the federal deficit. Then sunk low. Why? Reporting heterogeneity. Not every municipality, county, region, state, country, or whatever, reports on the same rigorous 24/7 schedule. The world doesn’t run on the model’s schedule.
The extreme spikiness upward accounts for the increase in totals.
Anyway, if you take this into account, and suppose our reported-cases model is some kind of guess of actual measured cases, then it’s still clear this is on the way out.
Daily reported deaths:
Same spikes, for same reasons, from same countries reporting cumulative multi-day totals. This is not interesting in itself, unless you really want to understand how bureaucracies work.
What is interesting is the reported deaths peak lag behind reported cases, as we’d expect if the model has some basis in reality. The spike also caused the model to slightly shift northwards.
It’s hard to see, but you’ll recall the deaths in particular have an up-down up-down up-down manner. The latest was an up, but a small one. Meaning don’t read too much into the spikes.
We don’t need the acceleration plots. We are clearing post (second) peak.
Lastly, here’s the total report deaths divided by the total reported cases:
There is no way that more than 6% of those who are reported to test positive are dying from this. And it would astonish me if even a fraction of that are dying with coronavirus.
There might be a hint this flattening, a flatness which necessarily must happen. Eventually, there will no more reported cases or deaths (or in such low numbers not to make a difference). At that point the curve is flat.
Oh, for fun, here’s the percent global population of reported cases and deaths:
At the end, 0.03% reported cases—probably will rise with increased testing. And 0.002% reported deaths—won’t rise as much.
Brings us in line with low end estimates of Swine “What me, panic?” Flu.
USA! USA! USA!
Totals for US:
Just under 700 thousand reported cases (likely will rise with new testing). And about 33 thousand reported deaths—both with and from combined. Last week the model said “Total reported cases: 510,000. Total reported deaths: 18,500.”
The doubling comes in the boost we saw in the mini-update coming from the dying-with re-emphasis. We can see that in the dailies.
Daily reported cases:
Even with the increased testing and scrutiny, we’re on the way down.
Daily reported deaths:
Again, even with the re-emphasis, we’re on the downslope. The re-emphasis happened right after that would-be peak a little more than a week back. That caused the model to see double.
To get to the 100 to 250 thousand, as Fauci and the other experts promised based on their models, this thing is going to have to jump up like a spider in a stove. Or it could be their models stank and should never have been heeded.
When Can We Smile Again?
Since this is a reporting-process model, and reports drive political decisions, we again want to use our model to predict the end of the panic.
These numbers—forget the model—are available to every politician. They see them. They must at least suspect they can’t keep up the turmoil, fear, and paranoia for too much longer.
The fear works. Probably not readers here, but a great deal of the public was, and still is, frightened out of their wits. One anecdote among many, but one citizen said lifting the lock down “I want to go back but only if we will be safe.”
When did we get the idea the government could keep us from getting sick?
Skip that: now look at the model. At what point do our elites realize they have to call it off? This model is only one piece of evidence among many others you can use to judge. For example, the model says by 1 May or so, few to no more daily reported deaths.
Assume the model is correct. As in assume it is correct. 1 May, few to no new reported deaths. That does not mean politicians can’t threaten new ones. Why, here’s a banker—known experts in viral outbreaks—saying we have to such it up 18 more months. Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns.
Without an effective therapy or a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, the U.S. economy could face 18 months of rolling shutdowns as the outbreak recedes and flares up again, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said.
“We’re looking around the world. As they relax the economic controls, the virus flares back up again,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Kashkari is a voter in 2020 on the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Eighteen months is best-case for a virus. More likely it’s a couple of year away. But who knows. Notice this Kash’n’carry is threatening “flare ups”. Stay afraid!
Kash’n’carry is pushing prime grade AAA bonded bullshit, but that does not mean it won’t sell and he (they) can’t get away with it.
On the other hand, the WSJ is reporting: States Move to Coordinate on Reopening Plans: Trump says federal government—not governors—will make the final call on sending Americans back to work and reopening closed businesses.
Elites are taking a hit in all this, too. Though it won’t kill them, as it will the poor, who are lining up for food. A small hole in their finances they can stomach, especially if it’s relative holes. But a gaping pit, like Hollywood is facing? How long will they stand it?
I don’t have answers for these questions. I’m hoping you do.
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