No End In Sight
Last week the big news was the juicing of death counts, which came as no surprise to us. What might have been missed was the section of real importance: guessing when the panic would end (go and re-read that section).
Not when the virus would end, mind you. The virus will never end. It will be with us forever. Like all our other viral pals, it will diminish in biological importance, but it won’t vanish.
We have to stress the biological, because coronadoom ceased being biologically consequential some time ago. Strangely, though, it has only grown in political importance—in inverse proportion to its deadliness.
Take masks for the well, which are no better than placebos. That’s what THE science says. Governments, who publicly proclaim they are romantically abed with science, spurn it in fact. Science-loving governments made not wearing a mask a crime.
I warned us about this months ago, and I recall many dismissed the warnings, saying how masks were a small burden. Small or large, there is no justifiable reason for the well to wear them. Which might be why governments have grown increasingly strident and shrill in their calls for people to strap them on—as the virus fades.
Arrests are taking place for masklessness.
The state of Victoria in Australia has already reached the We-Are-Just-Following-Orders stage of a police state. We’ve seen videos of “police” breaking down doors for the “crime” of posting on Facebook a plea not to go to protests. The “police” bravely dragged a pregnant woman off to the dungeons. For “incitement”, i.e. posting to Facebook.
Another woman who tried to hide from the “police” got six months prison. Not a few people pointed out these same “police” took a knee to the BLM terrorists.
The eternally sorrowful ruler of New Zealand jails people indefinitely now, if they refuse to be tested.
England is testing to-be mandatory wristbands to track citizens and ensure they do not go outside more than their allotted time. Like the scene in Naked Gun, people must now hug through plastic sheets.
We in the States are more advanced and now have plastic porta-cubicles for teachers.
What does any of this have to do with the waning of a routine virus outbreak?
Does it matter to these governments that the evidence piles up that lockdowns killed?
These, my dear friends, are rhetorical questions. The evidence our rulers are interested in is why some of us aren’t behaving. It has become clear our rulers have grow weary of us and won’t accept our antics as longer.
Have you noticed that at each relaxation of restrictions, shocking “news” comes along at just the right moment to assure governments their states of “emergency” are warranted? Remember when deaths had dropped to background levels, and the media discovered “new” “cases”, i.e. positive tests? Re-panic! Et cetera.
Now as the deaths from the “second wave” are waning, and hospitalizations are decreasing, the IHME rushed out new predictions THAT WE HAVEN’T SEEN THE WORST YET!
If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000. This would be 210,000 more deaths than our reference scenario. 3/14 pic.twitter.com/n4ED5mBRo4
— Ali H. Mokdad (@AliHMokdad) September 4, 2020
He means 620,000 in the USA.
How good are their models?
The red line is the IHME projected Sweden deaths assuming no immunity to COVID-19
The black line is what was actually observed in Sweden
My suspicion is the difference is due to prior T-cell immunity to COVID-19 from other coronaviruses
(Chart adapted from one by @HaraldofW) pic.twitter.com/YFxZFHj0VU
— James Todaro, MD (@JamesTodaroMD) September 6, 2020
Here’s another rhetorical question for you: does it matter their models stink?
My real fear, which I hope you will not dismiss lightly, is that this fall’s flu and its complications will be used to juice coronadoom numbers to keep the panic going. They have used, often, “suspected deaths” to juice coronadoom before. Why wouldn’t they do it again?
If the Oligarchs/BLM/Antifa wins or steals the election, I say this prediction is certain. If Trump wins, I believe it will happen only where Democrats rule and have become desperate.
Governments and oligarchs don’t want to let go of the tremendous new powers and riches they have gained in this man-made panic. Most people are still frightened. The only thing that will change all of this is if we see something new, something big, some “shock” to the system.
What might that be?
Winner, Dumbest Panic Reaction
STOP SAYING “CASES” DAMMIT!
I am begging you not to use the enemy’s language. Stop saying “cases”. Correct people who do.
A positive test is not a case. A case is an active symptomatic illness in a person needing or seeking treatment. A case is not a person who just has the bug and has, say, only the sniffles. Most people who get this don’t develop anything like a serious illness. Many never even knew they had it!
Again, some positive tests are false. Most genuine positives tests not are not symptomatic. (Here is one example.)
Positive tests do not necessarily mean active infections. I told us months ago the test was likely picking up past infections. This has since been verified (and it was always likely). Also as we guessed a long time ago, using evidence from other similar infections, the best current guess of the infection fatality rate is about 0.3%. We used similar numbers to show pictures of the number of people likely already infected.
Propagandists and governments are using these false “cases” to cause unnecessary panic. When you hear somebody say “cases”, tell them, “You mean positive tests. How many of them required hospitalization? How many deaths were caused by the virus? How many died with it?”
Stop saying cases!
Also stop saying deaths. Say “attributed deaths”, or “deaths with but not necessarily by.” Poor use of language has exacerbated this crisis beyond all measure. Do not contribute to it.
Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (CDC has two official sources that have differences). The media reports are always greater than CDC numbers.
The daily tests:
My fear last week, because of government incentives to get testing, testing would increase. It has. This leads to propagandists trumpeting, falsely, “new” “cases”, which caused people to panic, which causes more tests, which et cetera forever.
If you are not ill, do not get tested! How bad can the bug be if you don’t even know you have it.
Official CDC attributed deaths:
The testing is not leading to greater attributed deaths, because many getting tests have no symptoms (possibly anymore).
Finally, the official CDC all-cause weekly deaths. Last three week black dots; takes up to 8 weeks to get a full count, but most in 3.
Dashed line is the all cause minus official attributed coronadoom. The dashed line, with its bumps, is more proof government “solutions” and general panic kill.
Again, what frightens me is that next month the regular flu season begins. Flu deaths will be down a bit, I predict, given this bug and other things have killed a lot of people who might otherwise have died this year from flu. This is conditioned on this year’s flu bug being “routine”, of which I have no information. It’s just a guess.
Another screwy thing is the smoothness of the death counts. We have years of this stuff and its always choppy. No longer. Could be a function of “heightened awareness” of death reporting. Or who knows what. You’ll pardon me for no longer wholly trusting in the government.
The Awful Bloody Truth
These death numbers ultimately mean nothing. Not to any government officials or people in love with panic. For instance, NYC is still locked down. No indoor dining and whatnot, only promises to discuss the idea next year. Here is the state of the crisis in the whole state (go to the Google and type “location coronavirus deaths” and do this yourself).
I beg you will stare at this and assimilate its wisdom. There has been no crisis since about the first of June, some three months. Yet more people in NYC are wearing masks than ever before (maybe 95%). The panic is stronger than when deaths were at their peak in early April (mask use was maybe 10-15% then). There is zero hint that attributed deaths are increasing.
Evidence, therefore, as I said above, is utterly irrelevant to the state of the panic.
So much for “listening to science”.
Or maybe people are waiting for the miracle of a vaccine—which of course eliminated flu deaths the world over some, what, thirty years ago. Right? Right? Vaccines are created by experts with many degrees. What could go wrong? UN says new polio outbreak in Sudan caused by oral vaccine.
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In Minnesota there have been over a million people tested, in a state with 5.7 million people. That’s over 1 in 6 people tested. Yet our news outlets assure us that we are at risk because there still has not been enough testing.
Innumeracy has to be to blame for a lot of the panic. Even if you take the news agencies at their word many of the things that they say still aren’t worrying. For example, recently it was hammered again and again and again that the Sturgis motorcycle rally infected tons of people and doomed us all. But according to WCCO, only 76 people were infected by the rally across all of South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming. Meanwhile we are warned of 600+ new “cases” every single day in Minnesota alone (and less than 10 deaths each day). That makes Sturgis a drop in the bucket and very unlikely to have killed anyone, even if you take the news at their word in terms of numbers. But their big message is PANIC, PANIC, PANIC and people believe that. The numbers are just window dressing.
Don’t worry on the vaccine. Kamala has made it abundantly clear that no self-respecting Democrat will EVER take a vaccine made during a Trump administration. Now we are free from the vaccine threat and for that, I do thank the dimwit. The same rule will absolutely apply should the Dems be in power–all Republicans can refuse vaccines. Remember, it’s all about politics.
I firmly believe much of the crazy is FROM locking people in their homes. Dem states will explode when they let people out. Violence will be through the roof. Todays’s riots will look like a tiny disagreement compared to the pent-up rage release when the population is finally freed. You simply cannot suddenly lock down a population. Every successful dictator will tell you that. Or you have to kill half the population first….
Oh, if you add up all the numbers for “cases that could have been saved” by whatever insane idea the person speaking is backing (masks, tests, etc), as I stated before, we are going to have the dead rising because there are more cases that would be saved than actually died. As for testing, you know that scratch test for TB? For years, I had to have a chest Xray any time I was required to have a test because I always react to them. After about 20 years, the medical community finally admitted some people always react and stopped making those people have the tests. Testing, as I said at the beginning of this whole Covid thing, IS A HUGE MISTAKE. When I’m right, I’m right.
If you look at the numbers for Texas:
it may be that the lockdowns were effective in one way. They delayed the virus deaths into the summer, when Texans camp in their houses to get out of the heat. But the shape of the curve, rolling up to 150% of normal dying & then decaying back to the background level is the same as everyplace but NYC.
If you go here:
& click export you can download & see for yourself.
Texas is years behind in posting the state numbers for an independent check. So if CDC is lying I dunno.
Mass delusion means never having to say you’re alone.
Gather ’round and get comfortable with tyranny…
After posting on Facebook (yeah, I know) that masks are useless, some frightened Karen replied that she couldn’t understand why anyone wouldn’t want to wear a mask. She said that complaining about being required to wear one is a “first world problem” and that (get this) it is a “privilege” to wear a mask!
I don’t know; maybe she was trolling. It’s hard to tell these days, but I think she was serious. I shake my head.
PaulH: You are assuming rational thought, any thought, with Karens. Toss that idea. They are emoting fools who cannot be assimilated into an advanced society. The best one can hope for is dropping them in North Korea where “resistance is futile” and everyone is alike.
I note that colleges are making money right and left off Covid. The college find some stupid parent to pay $100,000 for their kid to go to college where he/she/it must:
Wear a mask
No gatherings of any kind
or you’re kicked out and they keep the tuition.
I’m torn on this one. I really don’t mind stupid, irresponsible parents from losing $100,000 but the fact that any parent is stupid enough to think their kid will follow those rules….The stupid, it burns. We couldn’t keep out underage drinking, sex parties, knocked-up coeds, frat hazings…..Yet these idiot parents think their kid will follow some of the stupidest rules ever issued. Besides, if you’re not going to party, can’t go out without a mask, etc GO REMOTE. There is NO REASON WHATSOEVER to have classes, other than to take tuition money when the students break the rules you KNEW they were going to break. It’s really a legalized con game which stupid parents willingly participate in.
Rudolph – less than 10 deaths each day
Remember That UofMN “study” from mid-May?
EVERY scenario had deaths at least 100/day by this time period for Minnesota
The BEST scenario averaged about 100+ deaths/day for 150-200 days
\If you have more than 1500 deaths by the end of the year, I’ll be surprised
In locked down Victoria, Australia the flu largely disappeared this winter, 4700 cases Ytd, compared to 53000 in same period last year though last year was unusually bad. A function in part at least of all the social isolation I suppose
“We in the States are more advanced and now have plastic porta-cubicles for teachers.”
Those cunty faces. That school must have been hell even before the covid panic.
Somebody in the thread pointed to this article : https://www.rt.com/op-ed/500000-covid19-math-mistake-panic/
Isn’t it possible for the data from Sweden’s experience to be used to develop new, more accurate models? I doubt that will happen, that would be far too rational and logical in our current age.
Since normal fly season is coming, I expect them to triple down on the normal push for everyone to get vaccinated.
Indeed I had forgotten that. I knew that the model was far off, but didn’t remember the specific numbers to remember how far off it was.
You really have to archive everything yourself to remember. The IHME has been off about almost everything, but they do not give easy access to their old models and as such unless you write down things like the fact that they thought that 50%+ of all hopsital beds across all states would be used by COVID-19 patients (which never happened) you would not know how inaccurate they are.
The numbers to remember right now are:
> 600,000 deaths by January 1 if there are no more lockdowns.
> 400,000 deaths by January 1 if there are lockdowns but we do not adopt 95% mask usage.
> 280,000 deaths by January 1 if there are lockdowns and 95% mask usage.
These are the most likely projections, but the smallest number they report from their confidence intervals is 255k.
Since it is almost certain that 95% mask usage will be obtained nowhere in the nation and that most places will not lockdown to the extent required by the IHME model (where most people literally do nothing but stay in their homes and occasionally get groceries) we can say the following:
If there are less than 600,000 deaths, the models are inaccurate.
If there are less than 400,000 deaths, the models are woefully inaccurate.
If there are less than 280,000 deaths the models are so inaccurate to not even be a good joke.
If there are less than 250,000 deaths the models are so inaccurate that everyone involved in making them should be exiled.
I predict that with extreme juicing of the numbers we might get to 300,000. But even that would be difficult; it would require a number of people dying in the next 3 months more than the previous 3 and a half months when the death counts are currently much lower than what happened in the middle of the previous time period.
I suppose another number to remember is 1.8 million. That’s the number of people the IHME expects to get get infected per day at January 1 with no more lockdowns. Generally the IHME projected infections have been about 3 times the “confirmed” infections in the historical data, so if their predictions are accurate and there are no lockdowns we should see about 600,000 new confirmed positive tests by the end of the year. Of course that requires that testing increase enough to actually be able to find so many positive results, but no problem there: the IHME predicts that there will be at least 1.1 million tests per day by the end of the year.
I really want to see them extend their models until June 1, 2021. With the way that they model the infections as exponentially increasing in the absence of lockdowns, we would quickly reach the point where literally every single person in America has not only been infected, but has a confirmed positive test. Would their model show a further increase from that point?
I especially remember that the UofMN “study assumed parameters” reset the infection rate back to IR-0 as if the population hadn’t yet encountered the bug yet (and they chose one of the higher guesstimates of the IR from the WHO or China (same thing?)
I felt bad for the young woman who crunched the numbers (probably did it well), but didn’t have the experience or nerve to question the values she was given.
A word here: Hope-Simpson seasonality. In the South, particularly east of mid-Texas, there are 3 seasons: Wet, summer and dry ;). People are indoors (and the sun is lowest in the sky) during the colder part of wet season. Then they go out as it gets warmer. When summer comes and the sun is highest in the sky they go indoors to get out of the strong mid-day sun and the heat of the afternoon. When dry season comes, we go outside again, so there are two parts to respiratory system virus seasons here. For coronaviruses, they’re summer “cold” (the syndrome) viruses, among others here. For border states, that will overlap with Mexico’s virus season; so a significant part of their numbers were people coming in with them to work and/or get treatment for the more serious cases that they couldn’t get back in Mexico.
Just checked the IHME projections for Sweden
They list three categories
Projections (things remain the same): they report a number more than twice Sweden’s current death
Masks (95%): 1,000 more than today
[Mandate] easing: 4X the current death number
Can any one point out the mandate in question?
Sweden’s OVERALL deaths are also reportedly down
I only remember the UofMN study projected 25 to 50 thousand depending on scenarios (with a somehow best case? ~18000?) [maybe if y’all THE GOVERNMENT were extra vigilant] … I just eyeballed the graphs provided and daily best case seemed to fall between 100 to 200 per day
More dead people from months ago have been turning up for testing!
Who wants to bet those same dead people will also be voting in November?
Also Tom Woods has a great talk here:
In a sea of stupidity, here’s an inspiring example from Spain of common people on the street standing up to the mask-cops. Everyone should emulate this!
The police may not have a racism problem, but they do have a statism problem.
“In Spain, cops try to detain a woman for not wearing her mask. A dozen people throw off their masks and wrestle the lady from their grasps.
This is what it’s going to take to quell this nonsense.”
OK – I admit that I’m the dumbest person on this thread – perhaps someone will help me with this – when I do the search recommend by Dr B namely (go to the Google and type “location coronavirus deaths”) I don’t get the plots he has – in fact I don’t get any plots but links to things like http://www.nytimes.com › interactive › coronavirus-us-cases
What am I missing ? Thanks in advance for whoever is kind enough to smart me up. 🙂
Briggs should have put location in brackets or something – it’s a placeholder for the actual location you’re looking for as in the example – new york
One of the big problems in the US, in addition to the whole thing becoming politicized around the election, is that Covid is now a very Big Business. I saw the are report the other day that the amount of testing being done in the US now is generating $1billion in revenue per week for test producers (and that amount will be dwarfed by the “vaccine” when that rolls out). And then there are the ubiquitous ads for fancy designer masks, turning what was pitched as a temporary public health measure into a cutesy – and apparently now permanent – fashion accessory (much like some women in Muslim countries treat veils, burkas, and chadors). “Submission” is indeed they key concept in all this. And where did all these companies pushing designer masks, portable teacher pods, etc. all come from suddenly?. All very fishy.
And now we have reports of further Gates vaccine debacles in Africa (when just last week news reports were praising him to the skies for having supposedly ended Polio in Africa!), yet these same scum are being promoted in the media as our would-be saviors from the supposedly grave existential threat of Covid. Sickening.
The world just gets worse and more intolerable every single day.
Jeffrey: I tried the NYT and CDC links too. Found the CDC spreadsheets not very user-friendly and the NYT paywalled.
By the by
Wikipedia AND the New York Times are listed as the Source so unsurprising it’d take you there
Briggs’ “snip” cuts off NYT
john b() – thanks for clarifying – that was simple – once you had explained it to me 🙂 – as Sherlock Holmes told Dr Watson – everything is simple – once it has been explained to you 🙂
As far as I can tell (since they don’t seem to have made a preprint explaining the new model yet) “mandates” in the new model simply mean “something that when active instantaneously decrease mobility by some large amount and keep it low while they are active”. Generally they seem to change mobility by about 60 percentage points (whatever the hell that means) which then causes downward changes to infections and later deaths. Of course no mandate in the world realistically works like this, and assuming that such things would happen in Sweden as part of the “current projection” makes no sense whatsoever.
This is what our host calls the deadly sin of reification. They create a crude version of what a “mandate” means in their model (necessary because their model simultaneously deals with every single region in the entire world in the same way). They decide it simply means a sudden decrease in “mobility” (which is itself a reification). They then pretend that this decrease in mobility simply is what mandates mean, everywhere across the world.
Rudolph: Obviously you have not been reading the MSM–Sturgis was a SUPERSPREADER EVENT!!!!
The actual numbers are not given, just percentages of increase (NPR says 260 as of 9/02 while the articles linked to don’t seem to know how many attendees or cases). There is a link to the study, which by one of the groups that claimed rioting is quite safe as far as Covid goes. It is not peer reviewed. Note the use of “cases” meaning TESTS, not actual sick persons. One death reported. The guy had pre-existing conditions and knew full well the risk he was taking. Not that libs ever care–no one is allowed to make their own choices.
I do wonder how much time went into creating 250,000 cases connected to the 260 or whatever people who were at Sturgis. And superspreader? Should we expect South Dakota to become the next New York? Wait, not enough nursing homes…..
I was surprised to find out this was now a superspreader event. Should have guessed the MSM would never let a chance to lie and terrify go to waste.
I looked at IHME back in May timeframe and didn’t believe them then
In fact the UofMN modelers bragged that they didn’t take the IMHE approach
Now it seems like IMHE has jumped the shark and taken the UofMN approach
(or a variation there of)
I liked the joke about Holmes and Watson camping
Looking around, I found this page that actually lists some of the old UofMN projections. Let’s see how they stacked up.
Reality followed “Scenario 5” most closely, with an end of the lockdown at May 18th and “increased social distancing” afterwards. This predicts 1,441 dead by the end of May. Actual dead were 1,039. Peak ICU demand was 3,397. From the term “peak” I’m guessing that this means people in the hospital at the same time. Cumulative ICU demand today is 1,903. Peak usage was 263, on May 30th (one month before the predicted peak). Mortality by the end of the pandemic is predicted to be 29,030 which we can’t judge yet, but seems pretty damned unlikely (current mortality is 1,862, so with the same rate of death on average as we’ve had up to this point the pandemic would have to continue over 15 times the current length).
Mortality in the “do nothing” scenario was 42,032(!) by the end of May.
Note too that these projections were from models updated midway through may, so being that far off on May mortality really has no excuse.
Why the media obsession with motorcycle or Trump rallies as alleged “super-spreader” events, but not one word about BLM/Anitfa rallies, riots., etc. being “super-spreaders”?
Of course, we know why…the mass media only “reports” what suits the Narrative.
I looked at the study about the Sturgis event. This is how the “over 250,000 cases” was reached:
We are further able to document national spread due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally,
although that spread also appears to have been successfully mitigated by states with strict
infection mitigation policies. In counties with the largest relative inflow to the event, the per
1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally
Events. Multiplying the percent case increases for the high, moderate-high and moderate inflow
30 counties by each county’s respective pre-rally cumulative COVID-19 cases and aggregating,
yields a total of 263,708 additional cases in these locations due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.
Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South Dakota estimated by synthetic control
(3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000)
brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19
in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020.
So you are wrong. “Cases” does not even mean “tests” here. Nowhere in the study was it ever verified that even a single person with COVID-19 had visited the Sturgis rally. It’s estimations all the way down.
So in need of this gem afterall:
Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson decide to go on a camping trip. After dinner and a bottle of wine, they lay down for the night, and go to sleep.
Some hours later, Holmes awoke and nudged his faithful friend.
“Watson, look up at the sky and tell me what you see.”
Watson replied, “I see millions of stars.”
“What does that tell you?”
Watson pondered for a minute.
“Astronomically, it tells me that there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets.”
“Astrologically, I observe that Saturn is in Leo.”
“Horologically, I deduce that the time is approximately a quarter past three.”
“Theologically, I can see that God is all powerful and that we are small and insignificant.”
“Meteorologically, I suspect that we will have a beautiful day tomorrow.”
“What does it tell you, Holmes?”
Holmes was silent for a minute, then spoke: “Watson, you idiot. Someone has stolen our tent!”
If you start looking through IHME projections outside of the US they get absurd, even moreso than the US projections.
For example, the projections for Japan predict over 120,000 deaths between now and January 1. That’s about 1 in 1,000 people from the country dead. Currently there are about 1.2k deaths attributed to the disease. (And of course, 120,000 is the “current projection.” The “mandates easing” model leads to over 280,000 people dead by the end of the year).
Even the global projection is pretty ridiculous, which shows how widespread the problem is. About 1 to 3 million more people dead by the end of the year, for a year end death total between 2 and 4 million. In the ballpark of 1 in 2000 people dead just by the end of the year.
My real fear, which I hope you will not dismiss lightly, is that this fall’s flu and its complications will be used to juice coronadoom numbers to keep the panic going.
Absolutely what they’re going to do. On steroids. The insane abuse of power is going to rocket up.
Factor into the equation — there WILL be an actual second round of the CovidDoom. And they fully intend to do their very best to prevent actually effective treatment options like hydroxy.
Get your zinc, D, C, and Fever Tree Indian Tonic now! Make sure you’re getting recommended levels of C and Zinc and start getting 5000 IU of D NOW. Make sure you know how much extra D and zinc you can take daily, given your health profile, if you become ill. Stock your pantry and freezer now. Stay confessed. Get the sacraments will we have em.
Me, in store, to young male cash register clerk — “how much longer do you think they’ll make us wear masks?”
Clerk: “A year, maybe eighteen months.”
Me: You’d wear a mask for eighteen months?”
Clerk: Yes, I like wearing a mask.”
They like wearing masks; it’s the zombie apocalypse, we’re doomed.
A plan to end the dempanic: cruise missile attack on the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, George Soros, Harvard, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, all the Federal Reserve Banks, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera…
Rudolph: Completely modeled. It figures.
I read this story once before. Where was it?
Oh, yeah, a book, a minor book of no importance or lasting significance.
It was called Atlas Shrugged.
Dean: Terrifying and sickening. “I like wearing a mask.” Perhaps he thinks it’s just a lark, no different from donning a mask on Halloween? They are trying to make it appear that way, what with all the designer fashion masks being promoted now to make it look like fun fashion accessory instead of the temporary health measure it was initially sold as.
We are doomed. Humanity is dead.
Amusing Story out of Africa. – Where’s the Simpsons Mr. Burns ‘Indestructible’ clip when you need it?
“Some expected the African continent to be affected most heavily by the virus, but that wasn’t the case. South Africa stands out when it comes to the number of total cases, with nearly 631,000 infections. But fewer than 15,000 people have died of COVID-19. These figures are puzzling scientists looking to understand how the virus behaves and how it can be beaten.
The hypothesis that poverty should have a significant impact on the spread of the virus doesn’t stand when it comes to the entire African continent. Developing countries like Brazil and India showed that the virus couldn’t be contained once it reached densely populated, but poor, neighborhoods.
Experts expected the same thing to happen in Africa, but it didn’t. If anything, Africa is doing better than any other continent, both when it comes to cases and casualties. As BBC News explains, even if those numbers are significantly underreported, Africa still has it much better than other continents right now.
“I thought we were heading towards a disaster, a complete meltdown,” Professor Shabir Madhi told BBC News. The UK’s top virologist echoed what others must have thought about the African coronavirus outbreak. But South Africa’s death rate is almost seven times lower than in the UK.
Some researchers have shown that other human coronaviruses that cause common colds can elicit an immune response that could provide protection against COVID-19. South African researchers went to work on that idea, attempting to analyze five-year-old blood samples that were conserved from a flu vaccine trial in Soweto. The plan was to look for any evidence that would explain why the African continent is faring much better against the illness than others. Those samples were compromised by technical issues that put a stop to the research.
But the idea stands. The same crowded neighborhoods that would lead to the quick spread of other coronaviruses may have protected the population from SARS-CoV-2.
“It’s a hypothesis. Some level of pre-existing cross-protective immunity … might explain why the epidemic didn’t unfold [the way it did in other parts of the world],” Mahdi said. “The protection might be much more intense in highly populated areas, in African settings. It might explain why the majority [on the continent] have asymptomatic or mild infections.”
“I can’t think of anything else that would explain the numbers of completely asymptomatic people we’re seeing. The numbers are completely unbelievable,” he said.”
Are here it is, this is essentially why the Africans are spared from Sars-Cov-2, or so they think…
Johnno: I also read somewhere a few weeks ago that general HCQ use is more common in Africa than most places because of malaria, so that could also explain being less susceptible to Covid. I can’t recall now where I saw that report or verify how accurate the claim is that HCQ is more or less a common everyday drug in many parts of Africa. But given what we now know of the benefits of HCQ + Zinc in fighting Coronovirus, it sounds plausible.
Matt – great article and compendium of human insanity. However please do post a reference of where you are getting those death charts. I find them in several pages but not as neatly as you have them. And I do not use google so please provide the source reference.
The charts show up at the top of the Google search results page directly when you search for ” coronavirus deaths”. Google credits Wikipedia with the numbers for the charts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases
Sorry, the search is meant to be “[location] coronavirus deaths”. Brackets got eaten in my previous comment.
Even those Google charts are misleading in some cases. I found out yesterday, for example, that officials in Lincoln County Kentucky were baffled last week when the governor announced 8 new alleged Covid deaths in their county as part of his daily totals, since there had been no deaths in the county that day. Turns out reporting delays had caused some deaths which actually occurred in June to only just now be reported.
The governor just blithely announced them as part of the “new deaths” total without giving any context, thus contributing to the idea that we are seeing a “spike ” in the state (just as he gives new “cases”, i.e. positive tests, each day with no context…never says how many are asymptomatic, how many seriously ill, how many hospitalized, how many actual deaths right now rather than simply catching up in reporting delays from months ago, etc. A total fiasco and a sick joke. Yet we’re supposed to trust this pissant legacy boy elected because of his father’s name knows his ass from a hole in the ground when he tells us how to “keep safe” by wearing a face muzzle.
I came across this on Adrian Vermeule’s Twitter the other day and figured people here would enjoy it:https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/09/sterilize-eyelids-soap-nostrils/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main
The article is by a woman in the grip of the most extreme Covid paranoia I’ve come across yet, headlined: “My extreme anti-covid routines: Sterilizing my eyelids and soaping my nostrils” (and those might be the least crazy of her routines!)
Simultaneously hilarious and deeply disturbing (though part of me also suspects it may be a satire – could anyone seriously be this paranoid about a virus with such a low death rate? And she says she’s married – how can her husband possibly put up with this?). The media and politicians in this country have contributed mightily to the growth of serious mental illness. WaPo would have done better to decline to print and instead refer her to a psychiatrist.
Dennis: I believe you’re absolutely right. Widespread use of HCQ for Malaria in Africa is most likely why they have been doing better. I recall reading that story awhile back too.
GILEAD’s reach likely can’t be taken seriously if they’re trying to restrict common malaria medicine in Africa like they can elsewhere.
I was onto them “c amping” without a tent after the first line.
Since they were close enough for one to nudge the other! You’d’ve thought they would have had their sleeping bags wider apart if there was no tent.
They must wear dainty shoes…
We don’t go on camping trips in the UK for adventure, like they do in America…
The only risk is getting freezing cold or soaking wet or both, for no evident reason. Makes one grateful for what you’ve got, I suppose. I’m happy with the thought experiment. Camping in Dundee was cold enough.
Minus five in the ice hotel was not as cold. We ended up in the Landrover. If you’ve got the space and the choice, only a silly perso carries on with the tent.