Thanks to all the people who responded to yesterday’s post. It’s been a busy few days, and getting busier, so I’ll be slow in answering emails and requests.
It’s been said several times already, but it’s such a hilarious joke that it bears retelling. We went from four years of the media, the left, the Big Con, and the neoconmen insisting Russia, mysteriously and in an occult way as yet unidentified, tampered with the 2016 vote and stole the election from Hillary. And now these same opportunists are insisting, just as stridently, that tampering with Presidential elections is impossible and that only the conspiracy minded could believe it.
This is the same group of people, incidentally, forever lecturing us on how intelligent they are.
Anyway, yesterday’s demonstration that three separate counties removed about 10,000 votes from Trump Wednesday evening, and the late Friday addition of about 27,000 votes for Biden, after a point at which it was plain about this many would be needed to push Biden ahead, is in my mind the best indication something untoward happened in PA. At the very least, the removal of Trump’s votes needs to be answered.
Today I’ll show you some other data that shows how difficult it can be to spot anomalies. A reminder, we’re looking only at county-level voting data additions that occurred after election day through Saturday night.
Now we know huge additions were made to Biden on Wednesday morning. These additions, we are told, contain a large dose of coronadoom-panic inspired mail-in ballots. But I don’t have the breakdown of which are mail-on and which “native” or other votes.
Again, throughout the days after the election, votes were added to both candidate totals at various times. You’d expect that sometimes the additions would favor Trump, sometimes Biden. The split wouldn’t be 50-50, of course, but would reflect the true underlying vote.
Here’s a picture showing the indexed, low to high, vote additions for each time they happened: there were over 200 of these additions. For instance, at one point (the right-most line) about 45,000 votes were added for Biden; and at the same time about 16,500 for Trump. Those cases where Biden got more votes than Trump are blue. When Trump got more the lines are red.
Trump did come out ahead in the vote additions sometimes, but every single one of the competitions was trivial. They were on the order of 1 vote for Trump, 0 for Biden, or 20 for Trump and 7 for Biden. On the other hand, Biden votes additions were almost always large compared to Trump’s. There aren’t any large times where Biden’s were the only votes added, though. Meaning no caches of Biden-only votes.
Still, the huge early additions to Biden are curious.
We do know where the additions come from and when. Here are the Biden-Trump additions as they occurred, for six counties which for other reasons appear suspicious. Chester and Cumberland had predominately registered Republicans, but where Biden supposedly beat Obama (in either term) in vote totals by 20-40%! The county names appear the peak of the differences.
That peak for Philly on the 6th is the one that pushed Biden ahead, and the one noted yesterday. You can see in these large counties only one time where more Trump than Biden votes were added, and a trivial amount.
In other words, as might be expected in a machine town saturated in a history of vote tampering, investigators should concentrate the mail-on ballot investigation on Philly.
In order to really discover something about the mail-in ballots, we need to examine each one, and compare them to in-person ballots. The distribution of patterns of votes need to be compared. For instance, a large number of supposed mail-ins are only marked for President and none of the other races would be almost definitive proof of cheating, especially considering real people who mailed ballots in had all the time in the world to consider their choices. Thus it was necessary and good to separate these late-addition ballots from the regular ones.
Much is being made of Benford’s Law. I critiqued it yesterday. One thing that must be remembered is that expecting small to moderate datasets to fit a Benford curve exactly is wrong. The smaller the sample, the larger the variance, and the more it is likely the data will diverge from the Benford curve, even with no cheating.
Here it is for all the vote additions for both candidates, for the leading digit of those vote additions.
Trump had 217 non-0 vote additions and Biden 216. Biden’s “1” sticks out more than theory supposes, but so does Trump’s. Biden’s “6” stick Trump’s “7” sticks up more. But you mustn’t think that this means somebody was giving more votes to Trump. Leading 7s can come about by, say, somebody seeing a total of 100 and subtracting 30 to get 70.
A sample size of 217 is just not that large, and this analysis by itself is inconclusive. Higher counts can be looked at, say over 1,000 or whatever, or for only certain counties, but this further shrinks the sample size.
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