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Because most have no familiarity with medical statistics, they are unable to put the coronavirus into perspective. The media and government has been shockingly remiss in providing this education, too, having more interest in panicked presentation of numbers and rushing headlong into the next “solution”.
We showed in The Price of Panic that lockdowns do not work and cause great harm. The WHO agrees. In a 2019 report, quoted often here and in the book, they recommend not locking down during a pandemic, especially when it becomes clear what the various mortality rates are. These are presented below.
Lockdowns cost lives, they do not save them.
The public, media, and government alike seem to have adopted a zero-tolerance policy on COVID deaths, or even “cases”. The scare quotes are necessary because what you hear called “cases” are largely not. They are mostly merely infections, the majority of which are past, mild, asymptomatic, and false—i.e., not real. There are also many repeats on the same individuals reported as “new”. A case is an individual seeking and requiring treatment, which most people infected with this bug do not.
We will never reach zero COVID deaths. We have never reached zero flu and pneumonia deaths. And never will. We have had a flu vaccine for half a century, but deaths have not ceased.
There are many reasons why you hear about “surges” in “cases”, and even hospitalizations, some of which are discussed below. But one is because deaths peak each and every winter, because we all go inside and spread bugs among ourselves. People have forgotten there is such a thing as “cold and flu season.” Our seasonal voluntary lockdowns spread bugs.
How is it, then, that the government “solution” to stop disease is the very thing they used to know caused it?
Lockdown 1.0 did not stop the bug from spreading. Summer did. Just as summer stops the flu and other viruses from doing most of their damage. (There are some twists to this because of timing of how the coronavirus bug started late and migrated throughout the country. But it now appears to fit the normal seasonal pattern.)
We never panic about flu, yet we do about the coronavirus. Hospitals are routinely “overrun” every year because of flu, yet none remember press headlines about this—and there have been plenty. It’s not the press didn’t try to juice a panic before, it’s that their efforts failed, because we are so used to flu.
Below you will see the Perspective Plot, which contrasts COVID deaths with flu and pneumonia and all other deaths. Here, some official CDC numbers (source links below), the calendar year sum of flu and pneumonia deaths: 2020 is partial through week 38, after which CDC stopped reporting these numbers separately (no COVID included).
FLU & PNEUMONIA DEATHS 2014, 193,755 2015, 193,539 2016, 181,918 2017, 188,286 2018, 191,689 2019, 174,810 2020, 217,557
Shall we lockdown in perpetuity to avoid these deaths? This question is arch, because it is self-lockdowns responsible for most of them. For comparison, as of this date (Monday night), CDC says there were 228,444 deaths with or from COVID (they say “involving”). There is a concern that some of this number are better classed as flu or pneumonia, though, as discussed below.
In any case, because of massive increases in testing of people who have no symptoms, we are registering low-grade and even non-existent infections, which the media are calling “cases”. People hear “case” and they think a person near death and lucky to escape it. This is not so.
We must rid ourselves of the false idea that we can reach zero COVID deaths. This coronavirus is, as the name says, a coronavirus, which are common (and usually cause colds). It’s not going to go away.
But it will fade into the background—-as soon as we stop giving in to fear.
Hot wine review: I have a lump in my throat and I can’t stop thinking about it.
There are many more, but this is long enough already.
Website of similar name: price of panic.
This is the number of daily tests. The date of the media’s (COVID Tracking Project) peak attributed deaths is noted: attributed deaths have been steadily declining since then (they will never go to 0).
I don’t know how to convey to you how crazy these levels are. They are in no way aligned with the actual COVID illnesses. Indeed, they are the opposite. It is this ridiculous level of testing that drives media-led panic.
The test is becoming increasingly routine. Many have it multiple times because of official requirements: each positive is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.
If you are not ill, you should not be getting tested. Yet many, many, many are. All these tests lead to reports of “surging” “cases”, which is not so. It is not so.
Here’s the proof of all this. If testing was at all related to actual deaths, a plot of number of tests per number of deaths should be somewhat flat, all things considered. Here’s what the plot looks like in reality:
Last two weeks not included because of CDC late reporting (otherwise it’s 30,000 tests per death at the end!). There is early variability in March because deaths and testing was low. After that, testing no longer had any relationship to number of deaths. Testing is purely its own phenomenon, utterly disconnected from any medical reality.
It is testing that is driving the “surging” “raging” “cases”. Not the disease. I beg you will pass this information on.
The coronadoom test has a high false positive rate: estimates vary, but it is large, perhaps 4%, sometimes much, much higher. Math exercise: given a 1-5% prevalence rate, with this false positive rate, how many false positive tests will be reported in 1.7 million tests? Every single day? If you know the math, please do this. Be sitting down when you do.
Here are CDC the weekly attributed coronavirus deaths:
These are attributed deaths, which include all those dying with or dying from the coronavirus. With and from are not the same. There is even some concern some flu and pneumonia deaths are being counted in this total. This is why I say “attributed deaths”. Early in the year, CDC did a study and determined only about 6% of the total attributed deaths died exclusively of COVID. The rest had almost 3 serious comorbidities on average.
Yes, indeed, attributed COVID deaths peaked early in the year, and then as it spread to the south, it re-peaked. It is now joining the great chorus of bugs that circulate every winter. It will peak in winter, and subside again in spring. This year’s totals will be higher than next year’s, and there always be fluctuation, just like with flu.
Here’s the proof of that claim. The CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot. The late drop off is late counting, which takes up to eight weeks to get all, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the COVID numbers.
The black line is all deaths, including COVID. Weekly deaths are now at a low, even COVID is small. The dashed is all minus attributed COVID, and the red, for perspective, is COVID. (Again, the drop off is late counts.) The blue line, about the same order as the doom, is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients).
The CDC (suspiciously) stopped reporting separate flu and pneumonia deaths midway through 2020, but I estimate them after by subtracting deaths “involving” COVID from those “involving” (their word) pneumonia or flu or COVID. That’s the dashed blue line.
It’s suspicious because of that word “involving”, which is the CDC admitting it’s not always easy to know what somebody died of. And it is most curious to see the shocking decrease in flu+pneumonia deaths, given what they normally look like. This is why there is a chance some of the deaths “involving” COVID are really better classed as flu or pneumonia deaths.
Now go back up and re-look at the sum of yearly flu and pneumonia deaths since 2014.
There is no need to panic. Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of).
Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:
Age COVID Other Cause 1 Under 1 year 0.00000690 0.00370 2 1–4 years 0.00000100 0.00016 3 5–14 years 0.00000095 0.00010 4 15–24 years 0.00000960 0.00061 5 25–34 years 0.00003800 0.00110 6 35–44 years 0.00011000 0.00170 7 45–54 years 0.00029000 0.00310 8 55–64 years 0.00066000 0.00690 9 65–74 years 0.00150000 0.01400 10 75–84 years 0.00370000 0.03300 11 85 years and over 0.01000000 0.10000
No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID.
Young (< 65) healthy people are not being killed by COVID—or much of anything else. Yet it is this demographic most panicked and most influential.
Here it the proof of that. The CDC flu tracking results (pulled Monday night). The different colors represent different virus strains.
October is the usual start of the flu+pneumonia season. Yet the samples checking for flu have dropped into the gutter. This seems to imply flu has disappeared.
It hasn’t. Testing for it has (the same is true at a global level: see past updates on this site for comments about the WHO’s global flu tracking). Perhaps everybody is concentrating on the coronavirus tests, ignoring flu tests.
The CDC used to report flu deaths on their flu update page. No longer. Now they report “pneumonia, influenza, or COVID.” That they can’t keep these separate means hospitals can’t, either. So we should not panic when we hear of “hospitalizations”, since these always occur this time every year.
About masks, see this article.
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