Statistics

An Electoral Train Wreck In Progress — Guest Post by Young, Droz, Davis & Belhar

S. Stanley Young, John Droz, Tom Davis, and Ray Belhar for The Science Team

I am reporting for a pro bono team of computer scientists and statisticians, The Science Team. We have now worked out how absentee votes for Trump were transferred to absentee votes for Biden. We can track the change in votes, data move by data move. A New York Times website gives vote increase and decreases for each candidate that occur during the vote-counting process. Essentially all the data we use is public, so our work is verifiable.

Unfortunately, there appear to be a deeply flawed voting process in several states, so The Science Team feels like observers of a train wreck in progress. How it all happens is a puzzle. What are the shapes of the puzzle parts? What are legitimate puzzle parts? And how do the real parts fit together? First, we list some of the puzzle parts, then we describe how they fit together, and finally we give an example figure confirming that the puzzle is solved.

Puzzle parts

Puzzle Part 1: Down ballot voting. Down ballot voting results in Allegheny County Pennsylvania gives insight into the voting process. Inconsistencies between presidential votes and down-ballot voting point to systematic problems. Biden and Trump lead their tickets; Shapiro and Heidelbaugh are respective candidates for state attorney general. Vote totals are given in Tables 1 and 2.

Table 1. Trump and Heidelbaugh.

Trump Heidelbaugh
Election Day 209,459 183,538
Absentee 67,164 57,436
Provisional 6,290 5,279
Total 282,913 246,253

Table 2. Biden and Shapiro.

Biden Shapiro
Election Day 148,171 161,321
Absentee 274,774 273,725
Provisional 7,814 8,120
Total 430,759 443,166

First note that Trump leads the ticket, with fewer votes for Hidelbaugh. Next notice that Biden votes are lower by 13,150 than for Shapiro. One might conjecture that Biden is less popular than Shapiro, but that is not supported with the Absentee vote where Biden received 1,049 more votes than Shapiro.

Chance is not at play. You are roughly 100,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning in a year than come upon a table this unusual. There is something systematic; perhaps the Biden absentee vote count was systematically augmented.

Puzzle Part 2: Time series of data additions. Vote counting was stopped the night of 3 November, itself a quite unusual event, and over 100,000 absentee votes were later deposited. Also, strangely, several other states stopped counting votes at the same time and later, also at about the same time, made large deposits of absentee votes. Careful examination of vote movements shows votes were removed from Trump and placed with 3rd party candidates, then moved to Biden.

Puzzle Part 3: Under a court order voting machines in Antrim County Michigan were examined by a computer expert, Russell Ramsland Jr. of Allied Security Operations Group. He found that Dominion’s voting system “intentionally generates an enormously high number of ballot errors,” causing the ballots to enter a process known as adjudication. “The intentional errors lead to bulk adjudication of ballots with no oversight, no transparency, and no audit trail.” The word intentional needs comment. A second computer expert, Navid Keshavarz-Nia, noted that “… Hammer and Scorecard capabilities are tradecrafts used by US intelligence analysts to conduct MITM (man in the middle) attacks on foreign voting systems…without leaving an electronic fingerprint.” The existence of this software and the code was released in Wiki Leaks.

There are other puzzle parts that fit, but these are sufficient for out purposes.

How the puzzle parts fit together: Here is our current explanation on how it went down. Once the results of in-person voting were known, the allocation could be determined to overcome an in-person shortfall. The Biden/Trump percent absentee ratio, before allocation, might be 60/40 and during allocation to be as high as 80/20.

Results: We examine the percent of each candidates vote that come from absentee votes. Based on allocation, the final Biden and Trump percent absentee will become more extreme and, most curiously, will vary together in what we call a “snake diagram.” We give a snake diagram for Eaton County Michigan.

Among the unusual features of this figure is the general tendency of the snakes to go up and down together. The correlation between the two variables is 0.8138 and with a p-value of 1.86×10-11, about 35 consecutive heads coin-flips. We will think the synchronization is due to the allocation process until someone offers a better explanation.

Scaled and replicated

A computer operation scales to almost any size and can be replicated at will. If the ballot results are sent to a central computer, an algorithm can be used to “adjudicate” and reassign results to candidates.

Multiple counties within battleground states, e.g. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, give parallel snake diagrams.

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Categories: Statistics

19 replies »

  1. Okay, we already know beyond a shadow of a doubt the Dems stole the election. However, we are going to have Mr. Stolen Presidency for four years anyway because no one has any idea of how to fix the steal. The time to “fix” it was BEFORE the election and the lazy a** Congress did nothing. Biden himself explained years ago how mail-in voting could steal an election and STILL, sitting on one’s backside and doing nothing was the only response. This is a classic case of “closing the barn door after the horse is out”. Except there’s a lot of whining about the whole thing.

    Honestly, all the statistics are cute, but we KNOW THEY STOLE THE ELECTION. The Turnip in the Basement did not get more votes than any other candidate ever. It’s mind-boggling that any one is stupid enough to believe this, yet they do. They stole the election because AMERICANS ARE FLAMING IDIOTS and you don’t need stats to know that.

    If you want to explain to those skeptics how this is really a steal and not a coincidence like CNN seems to think, jam any security cameras around all the anchors homes, go in using a copied key or a stolen security code, take anything of value, trash the place, and when the police show up, tell the anchor NO CRIME WAS COMMITTED. There was no break-in, it’s coincidence the cameras were out (security cams go out all the time, you know), and how do the police know anything is missing and that the anchor is not just a crappy housekeeper or had a wild party. It could be an insurance scam, for all the police know. Without a break-in, NO CRIME WAS COMMITTED. Do this to four or five anchors at once, and the more they protest, tell them they are just whiners, we’re tired of their probable trying to scam the insurance company and insult the crap out of them. After all, that is exactly what they are doing to the election results and integrity. It’s time people. Fight back, protest, scream, shout and make the Stolen Presidency’s and the White Privilege’s* lives in the White House HELL or live in hell yourself. Your choice.

    *married a white guy and got into the White House courtesy of an old white guy with zero credits of her own–WHITE PRIVILEGE

  2. Oh, and the jerk in the White House signed the pork bill, so who the hell cares who won??? You’re wasting your time. They are all jerks and screwing us over. Have a nice day.

  3. Simon,

    You can’t get weer than that!

    I of course do not approve, ever, of using p-values.

    Nevertheless, I put up this article in an effort to generate discussion, even I do not agree with all of it.

  4. If there is compelling evidence of fraud, and if it’s conceivably possible to uncover evidence and show culpability, there is no reason to stop the efforts to expose this or remedy it even after the electoral college elects Biden. It is far more important to expose the fraud, whenever possible, than to block Biden’s inauguration

  5. Dear Sheri. Because you know much of what has been proven by science is this great Blog, you are easily irked by what you read here.

    Try and be a little more patient as men like Briggs are, slowly but surely, helping the scales fall from the eyes of the true believers in democracy.

    It is not enough to shout FRAUD. It must be proved.

    That is happening.

  6. Mindlessly repeating “There was fraud!” “The election was stolen!” isn’t convincing. None of the 3 points are based on actual data, it’s all conjecture.

    Puzzle part 1 claims that it’s unusual for an AG candidate to get more votes than a President, but gives no support, beyond a wild claim about it being 100,000 times less likely.

    Puzzle part 2 is just vague claims without any actual documentation. Any case of “mysterious late absentee votes” I’ve looked into shows there’s no mystery: it takes longer to count them so they get added to the totals later. Similarly with: “Careful examination of vote movements shows votes were removed from Trump and placed with 3rd party candidates, then moved to Biden.” Other cases of “vote movements” were simple news reporting glitches.

    The computer expert mentioned in Puzzle Part 3 is the same Russell Ramsland Jr. who claimed in an affidavit that voter turnouts were 10x higher than actually recorded by election officials.

    As for the comment about “The time to “fix” it was BEFORE the election…” – why did the election fraud commission set up by Trump in 2016 disband without reporting on any problems? He alleged fraud back then, had 4 years to have it looked into, and found nothing.

  7. I appreciate the concision of the post. I’ve gone back and forth on the snake diagram. Briefly tried to build an explanatory model before realizing that would take some time, as an amateur.

    So, question: why isn’t it a simple explanation just to say that “in precincts where Biden voters were more likely to vote absentee, Trump voters were also more likely to vote absentee” ?

    This could be due to regional factors such as convenience of the polling station, local prevalence of Covid-19, etc. Seems like our null hypothesis ought to be that such regional factors would increase both parties’ likelihood to vote absentee. But perhaps not uniformly. E.g. Dems could be more scared of higher case counts.

  8. THere is something very strange in the Allegheny county (PA) vote totals.
    The numbers in the guest post are from the county website.
    They are different from the Official Pennsylvania website.
    Official Pennsylvania Website

  9. Official Pennsylvania Website
    Table 1. Trump and Heidelbaugh.
    Trump Heidelbaugh
    E Day 209,459 183,538
    Mail 66,575 57,720
    Prov 6,290 5,279
    Total 282,324 246,537

    Table 2. Biden and Shapiro.
    Biden Shapiro
    E Day 148,171 161,321
    Mail 273,080 274,082
    Prov 7,814 8,120
    Total 429,065 443,523

    So what is strange?
    For Election Day and Provisional both websites vote counts are the same.
    And Biden and Trump have more mail-in votes on the county website than the state. OK, so maybe the county has continued to count but the state hasn’t updated their “certified” results.

    BUT
    Both Shapiro and Heidelbaugh have FEWER mail-in votes on the county website than the state.

    What is going on? I would think that Heather Heidelbaugh would have standing to sue Allegheny county and figure out why her vote count dropped after the state certified the election.

  10. “Multiple counties within battleground states, e.g. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, give parallel snake diagrams.”

    Have you checked this type of data in non battleground states? Maybe California and Wyoming to compare true red and blue areas.

  11. Well, the simple proof is that none of the locations in question (states, counties and precincts) are permitting auditing, and are, indeed, actively seeking to destroy the evidence trail. I believe that sequestering and or destroying evidence is prima facie evidence of criminality in most jurisdictions in criminal proceedings, and also in civil proceedings..

    Much as I appreciate the esteemed Briggs’ and colleagues’ logic and analytics, they pale into insignificance compared with the behavioral evidence obstruction and coverup.

  12. @C Cordvagy “Much as I appreciate the esteemed Briggs’ and colleagues’ logic and analytics, they pale into insignificance compared with the behavioral evidence obstruction and coverup.”

    The problem is not whether there is sufficient proof of fraud. As you say, even disregarding the logic and analysis, the behavioral evidence is clear enough proof. The problem is that the US political system no longer is concerned with proof of either guilt or innocence. The only thing that matters is power. Right, wrong, morality, rule of law, legal procedures, solemn oath of office — none of that matters. We are ruled by a system where some unknown but very large fraction of the people involved have no honor, no morals, no compassion. All they want is power. Are there still enough honorable people in Washington to prevent the train wreck? Magic Eight Ball says, “situation uncertain”.

    They aren’t stealing an election. They are stealing a country.

  13. Here is a much simpler explanation. Trump had an approval rating of 40%. Meaning that many Republicans voted for Republicans down ballot and voted for Biden for president because they are tired to see a criminal idiot in charge.

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