Statistics

UK Madness Level Turned To 11: Coronavirus Upate XLVIII

THE UK

I said last week “The UK has lost its mind.” They have moved to Madness Level 11 since then, proposing allowing people outside only once per week, and arresting now those walking alone along the beach.

The scientists in charge of the UK are a word I cannot use on a family blog. They are also not too good at their jobs, which I can say, and which I can prove with ease.

Here are two plots, using data from their own ONS (here and here), that prove their scientists are idiots.

The first is the weekly all-cause death from 1993 to the end of 2020 (the last update they had available when I downloaded the data on the weekend):

The coronadoom and lockdowns, with the two battling it out for top body count, did indeed kill a lot of people in early 2020. The number of dead (by whatever cause) since then has been less than many, many, many other years.

Here is the same data per capita, which puts the madness in better perspective.

The flu+pneumonia seasons of both 1999 and 2000 were worse than the doom in 2020.

Where by worse I mean worse.

There is no justification for turning the screws on citizens. So why do they do it? Models. Models have taken the place of Reality. I have been warning about this for many years. It’s time you listened.

BOOK UPDATE

The book is back in stock! The Price of Panic.

The price is still $12.99 for the hardback. You can’t afford not to buy.

Incidentally, all our predictions have come true.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

I believe the same kind of per capita all-cause death figure for the UK holds for the US in spirit, but I have been unable to find monthly all-cause death data for the US before late 2009. If anybody knows of it, please drop me a note.

CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.

The black line is deaths of any kind. The red COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.

This is a little odd this week because there is a “week 53”; the CDC finally update the COVID page to include January 2020, but it doesn’t start on the first, and the last week of December 2020 didn’t end on the 31, but a couple of days into January 2021, which are included as the last week of 2020. Dates are always a pain in the keister.

DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY. DO NOT BE ALARMED. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

Here is the CDC deaths “involving” COVID. To prove the point just made:

There is nothing in that to indicate any level of panic.

The January peaks are caused when we enter our voluntary lockdowns in winter, spreading bugs. This is also the “solution” governments hit upon to stop the spread of bugs. Lockdowns kill.

Besides the increasing deaths due to population increase, notice that about every other year deaths are higher. Like this winter.

Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

The number of deaths for each year are also given. My simple “excess” deaths model, a year-on-year extrapolation, predicted 2.92 million deaths for 2020 absent COVID. So far, there have been 3.22 million registered deaths in 2020. This gives 305 thousand “excess” deaths for 2020.

Again, so far. Once the late counting comes in, this number will grow somewhat, so be ready for that. IMPORTANT: these are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the “solution” to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns.

Daily tests:

This is the number of daily tests. Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

Testing has peaked back up after the holidays, as expected. After “Death is coming” is inaugurated, it’s likely to go higher still. Testing helps sustain the panic, because of all the false reporting on “cases”.

Again, flu is still missing. CDC found one pediatric death for flu this year. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, which still shows flu has gone missing everywhere:

If we focus only on COVID deaths, we lose all perspective. We can see above that deaths peak every January, because of our self-enforced wintertime lockdowns, when we all hunker down inside and spread bugs among ourselves.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of; “involving” is CDC’s word).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000085    0.00470
2          1–4 years 0.0000012    0.00021
3         5–14 years 0.0000013    0.00013
4        15–24 years 0.0000120    0.00078
5        25–34 years 0.0000460    0.00150
6        35–44 years 0.0001300    0.00220
7        45–54 years 0.0003700    0.00400
8        55–64 years 0.0008800    0.00880
9        65–74 years 0.0021000    0.01800
10       75–84 years 0.0054000    0.04300
11 85 years and over 0.0150000    0.13000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is vanishingly low. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work.

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Categories: Statistics

29 replies »

  1. The picture says it all. Thanks.

    I think you left out the chart with the black, red, and blue curves.

  2. Looking at the area under the curve, three hundred million tests have been performed (give or take)

  3. I’d say the scientists are very good at their jobs, which is help usher in the great reset. And if that picture doesn’t get your blood boiling I don’t know what would.

  4. “The Great Reset”–what a stupid thing to call it. Call it world domination by the rich, rule by billionaires, but it is NOT a “Great Reset” no matter what the MSM calls it. You could also call it return to the past, since most of human existence that is how humans have lived. Probably because actual freedom is just too much work. Maybe call it “Blast from the Past”. It’s more accurate.

  5. Now that the color revolutionists have deposed Trump the lockdowns can be lifted:

    ”We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy, but we must do it smartly and safely.”

    — Godmother Cuomo, tweet yesterday.

  6. At least that poor old fellow being dragged off to the Lubyanka has an Eco Jute Bag, and that’s good because that type of bag “doesn’t cost the earth”, and is “high speed biodegradable”. So it’s not all crazy bad.

  7. In the December 19th, 2020 Weekly Summary Report, CDC included the acronym PIC:

    “The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 (PIC) has been increasing since early October. Both COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and PIC mortality for the most recent weeks are expected to increase as more data are received.”
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/past-reports/12282020.html

    Does this mean that CDC is now folding seasonal flu/pneumonia into their reported COVID deaths?

  8. Has there ever been a respiratory virus that exploded in the Spring, burned through the Summer and into the next year ? Or are these ‘waves’ simply an artifice of a deeply-flawed PCR testing regime + panic + lockdowns ? And if that’s true, why no panic and lockdown death waves in Stasi-level NZ which is actually looking to have a deaths deficit ? If NZ is an outlier, then what about Germany ?

  9. Remember the Y2K bug? The world was supposed to end! Why should anybody have cared about the flu back then when a much cooler reason to panic was available to us?

  10. “There is no justification for turning the screws on citizens. So why do they do it?”

    They do it just because they can. Because evil tyrannical scum are in charge everywhere, and a supine population of sheeple goes along with their mindless mask orders and other diktats because, like Nietzsche’s Last Man, they want nothing more than risk-free lives of banal bourgeois comfort, and as long as the tyrants promise that and to “keep them safe” from imagined threats floating in the very air they breathe, they will meekly follow any order, give up their liberties, and abdicate all personal responsibility for their own lives.

  11. “Models. Models have taken the place of Reality.”

    This is true in many places. For example, some people are attached to certain models of voting behavior, and when reality departed from these models, concluded that the election must have been stolen. Any competent statistician, or even a normal, numerate, rational person, can point out simple explanations for the observed patterns. But that makes no dent upon those with a deranged attachement to their models: hence the Kraken and the deaths of two Capitol police officers.

  12. Just before Christmas we were warned repeatedly about how the holidays were going to kill us all. However, the number of daily deaths has only went down since Christmas, and if the holidays were such a “superspreader event” we should be seeing the effects by now. The counts are low even with several days not reported (due to holidays) and the flu still mysteriously not existing (and surely not being lumped in with COVID stats!)

    Of course, this news is largely not being reported. Reports are focusing on the large number of “cases.” Of course, in MN we just passed the milestone of having more tests than people (with it being estimated that over 50% of the population has received at least one test), so of course “cases” are going to be high.

  13. Dear Dodgy,

    You don’t need a specialist statistician; I can do it.

    I found the same graph and analysis on Twitter, starting here: https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1348708673728761857

    (I’d post this response there, if I were on Twitter. And, let’s face it, only a blithering idiot would join Twitter in 2021.)

    The analysis goes step by step until it reaches age adjusted mortality rates, which are the only truly meaningful numbers:
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1348708802716196864

    So far, so good. But then it’s spoiled by what the idiot Conway describes as “one of the most shocking charts I’ve ever posted”, the annual difference in mortality rates: https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1348708811700318215

    As any fule kno, differentiating like that will just get you noise. And if the fule didn’t kno beforehand, just looking at the graph he got ought to be enough for him to twig. Conway’s final graph is almost completely meaningless.

    But taking a step back to his meaningful graph, it says that last year the age-adjusted mortality rate went up a bit, after several years of going down. But we already knew that.

    Last year, things were almost as bad as they were about ten years ago.

    The people who peddle this panic are innumerate and should be ignored.

  14. Ironically, frightened like most everyone else, early March, Twitter is where I discovered alternative perspectives and found my footing.

  15. I looked at the Ed Conway graphs that Simon Platt linked to. I’m no statistician, so the age adjusted mortality rates were disappointing. Conway’s chart only shows one line.

    Apparently it’s some mix or blend of rates for all the different age groups, which are not shown. I was expecting separate graph lines for each of several age groups.

    Because the CV-19 deaths are so weighted toward the elderly, the information I think would be most interesting is several years worth of all-cause death rates in each of ten of so age groups [0-9, etc.]. I’ve never seen that.

    Also, there is theorizing about both ‘dry tinder’ and ‘pull forward’ of deaths, especially among the elderly, and especially in countries or areas where flu deaths were unusually low the past couple winters. And I am guessing that due to the aging of baby boomers, the annual growth rates in elderly age groups might be higher [by percentage] than the overall U.S. percentage growth rate.

    So what would also be interesting is age group death rates averaged over three years.

  16. Oh, but if/when the coronadoom numbers come out low after the lockdown, the Brit doctors will say “Look at how good we did! Actual deaths are much lower than the models predicted…”

    Got to love those models. They work so well.

  17. Well, get on the bandwagon then, madness it is!
    Quebec has curfew and Ontario has, as of tomorrow, stay-at-home orders.

    It’s as if provinces and states are being treated like misbehaving teenagers.
    Next we will be grounded (indefinitely), lose our use of the car (because climate) and get a stern talking to by a father figure like Bill Gates…(Whoops! Bill did that last spring to all the Ontario Mayors…scratch that last one)

  18. It isn’t madness underlying the control of the masses using a false flu epidemic. Govt’s are controlling their citizens BEFORE they devalue the money. Just recall the panic in Germany when it super-inflated 1000 times. Robberies, murder, the gov’t was overthrown by hitler. Now the hitlers have an early access using the fake pandemic, by controlling the people this year, wearing them down, getting them used to ‘submitting’ all while they plan to take ALL their possessions away in the name of national security in only a few months.

  19. Really says alot about the British bobbies that they need two officers to restrain a 92 year old man. Same idiots who drag people to jail for “social media violations” but wont do a thing about knife crime; except banning knives with tips. Britain went mad a long, long time ago.

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