Statistics

Vaccine Side Effects, Inefficiencies & Corporate Greed: Coronavirus Upate XLIX

VACCINE

The hope of the vaccines (there are, as you know, many flavors) was that it would calm people down—never mind all the other considerations, which are important but which we’ll skip here. Those that wanted to get it could do so, gain some peace of mind, thus helping to end the panic.

There turned out to be—surprise!—three problems associated with this idea: side effects, government idiocy, and greed.

Side Effects

Norway put the breaks on the Pfizer vaccine.

Norway expressed increasing concern about the safety of the Pfizer Inc. vaccine on elderly people with serious underlying health conditions after raising an estimate of the number who died after receiving inoculations to 29.

…”There are 13 deaths that have been assessed, and we are aware of another 16 deaths that are currently being assessed,” the agency said. All the reported deaths related to “elderly people with serious basic disorders,” it said. “Most people have experienced the expected side effects of the vaccine, such as nausea and vomiting, fever, local reactions at the injection site, and worsening of their…”

Another: “Fifty-five people in the United States have died after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, according to reports submitted to a federal system”.

“Deaths have occurred among people receiving both the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines, according to the reports.”

This is all preliminary, and not unexpected, as this news report proves:

The alternate view, backed by the data below, is that those who died were old and sick and were near the end anyway. Just examine the population fatality rates at the bottom for confirmation. Don’t forget the average age of attributed COVID death is about 80, and the CDC reports an average of almost 3 serious comorbidities for these folks. Meaning it might not be the vaccine killing people—though that is a serious possibility—but their age and illnesses doing it.

This is a kind of side effect, also not unexpected. To non-experts, anyway.

Government boondoggle

You’ve already heard from other sources that our most beneficent government can’t efficiently get vaccines to people in some states, like in New York, with its award-winning mayor.

Greed

Item: Microsoft, Big-Tech Coalition Developing Rockefeller-Funded COVID Passports

A coalition of big tech companies, including Microsoft is developing a COVID passport, with the expectation that a digital document linked to vaccination status will be required to travel and get access to basic services…

The idea is now a familiar one. Anyone who has been vaccinated will receive a QR code that can be stored on their mobile phone in the wallet app. Those without phones will have access to a printed version.

We have previously reported on the development of this so called ‘CommonPass’, which also has backing from the World Economic Forum, and now more details have emerged.

I believe the other altruistic companies are Oracle and Salesforce. That they’ll stand to make billions for this useless, painful, asinine boondoggle of an idea certainly plays no role in their thinking, surely. It’ll be tough on those with the communicable HIV, for which there is no vaccine. No travel for them. Sad.

You do recall, don’t you, that mandatory vaccine papers started as a wild far-right conspiracy theory, moved to open discussion, and is progressing to the implementation phase. In record speed, too.

Update From BMJ: Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more details and the raw data.

BOOK UPDATE

The book is back in stock! The Price of Panic.

The price is still $12.99 for the hardback. You can’t afford not to buy.

Incidentally, all our predictions have come true.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.

The black line is deaths of any kind. The red is COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.

You can see the initial peak in 2020, when the virus first hit in the northeast, and then a smaller bump when it spread south. The bump now is in line, and perhaps a bit higher, with what we expect to see this time of year on average.

DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY. DO NOT BE ALARMED. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

This is all seen in the same plot, but shown PER CAPITA:

2021 and 2018 are similar in magnitude; 2020 is higher. But notice deaths per capita are still increasing in general, to reflect, most likely, an increasingly older and unhealthier citizenry. Curious, too, we get larger numbers about every other year. Some sort of feedback?

Here’s another view, with average weekly death rates for years back to 1917 (using this source and CDC; the CDC has to be copied by hand, and is incomplete; view this graph as interim; thanks to David Boots and Baylor Eye for help finding sources):

2020 brought us to about 1980 levels; and it was worse before then. Don’t misunderstand this graph. First, it’s averaged over the whole year, so individual weeks can’t be seen. Second, in 2020 and 2021 it’s mainly much older people who are dying, whereas in 1980 and before the age of deaths was much more spread out. Meaning, as claimed, it was worse then, assuming younger deaths are less good.

Why, then, do we panic now and not then? As with rich people finding fault in their purchases, the better things get, the more we react and complain.

Here is a third perspective, looking at flu+pneumonia rates per 100,000 and COVID for 2020 (sources: Our World in Data, CDC as above).

There is always concern when mixing sources that differences in definitions exist. The CDC data, at least, is self-consistent. The years 1999-2009 are missing. The brown are CDC data. The red dot is COVID. These are annual death rates.

If all this is right (and I’ll be checking more), we’re about at 1940 flu levels with COVID. But 1980 levels in overall death rates. And, of course, COVID is dropping now.

Here is the CDC deaths “involving” COVID.

The January peaks are caused when we enter our voluntary lockdowns in winter, spreading bugs. This is also the “solution” governments hit upon to stop the spread of bugs. Lockdowns kill.

Besides the increasing deaths due to population and unhealthiness increase, notice that about every other year deaths are higher. Like this winter.

Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

The number of deaths for each year are also given, except 2021, which are thus far still in the late-count category. I’ll start showing these in about two weeks.

My simple “excess” deaths model, a year-on-year extrapolation, predicted 2.92 million deaths for 2020 absent COVID. So far, there have been 3.27 million registered deaths in 2020. This gives 356 thousand “excess” deaths for 2020.

Again, so far. Once the late counting comes in, this number will grow somewhat, so be ready for that. It won’t go up by too much more now, since most 2020 counts are in.

IMPORTANT: these are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the “solution” to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns.

Just for one example (I learned this from PD Mangan, who you should all follow): Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020. They’re up, especially for men of working age.

Just one picture, but you can look at the others in the paper. This is Opiod overdoes for two large metro areas. They’re up.

Daily tests:

This is the number of daily tests. Each positive test in the media (not real life) is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

Testing has peaked back up after the holidays, as expected. After “Death is coming” is inaugurated, it’s likely to go higher still. Testing helps sustain the panic, because of all the false reporting on “cases”.

Flu is still missing, even into 2021. CDC found one pediatric death for flu this season. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, which still shows flu has gone missing everywhere:

The new year is there, but still colored black: it’s the tiny short black line. Flu is still not with us.

If we focus only on COVID deaths, we lose all perspective. We can see above that deaths peak every January, because of our self-enforced wintertime lockdowns, when we all hunker down inside and spread bugs among ourselves.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of; “involving” is CDC’s word).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000090    0.00480
2          1–4 years 0.0000013    0.00021
3         5–14 years 0.0000013    0.00013
4        15–24 years 0.0000120    0.00079
5        25–34 years 0.0000480    0.00150
6        35–44 years 0.0001400    0.00230
7        45–54 years 0.0003800    0.00410
8        55–64 years 0.0009100    0.00900
9        65–74 years 0.0022000    0.01800
10       75–84 years 0.0057000    0.04400
11 85 years and over 0.0160000    0.13000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is tiny. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk for the majority of the population.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work.

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Categories: Statistics

27 replies »

  1. —There’s got to be a big market for fake QR identification.
    —All of this designed to control populations so they won’t rebel in the Communist takeover. Thus expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
    —Bill Bonds died at 82 in 2014. He would not have been shocked at what’s happening today. We were acquaintances in Detroit.

  2. DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY. DO NOT BE ALARMED. PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

    Looking at WorldOMeter, it looks like “Death with CoronaVirus” has just peaked
    (Despite testing, positive tests have fallen for the lats week)

  3. Please help. When I use Firefox I get the following message when attempting to retrieve this blog:
    Error 413 Request Entity Too Large

    Request Entity Too Large
    Guru Meditation:

    XID: 1522182639

    Varnish cache server

    Does anyone have a solution?

  4. Michael: Clear your cookies and your history. It may or may not help. Varnish cache seems attached to WordPress (God hates WordPress). I find that most problems are due to too many cookies or too much history or both. I can’t run Firefox on my Mac for some reason, or I could give you a better answer. Chrome is fine and Opera has one security objection. The clearing cookies and history is the equivalent of “turn it off, turn it on” magic.

    Considering most medical testing does not involve the elderly, this is no surprise. It would have been rational and smart to vaccinate the young to protect the elders, but with a totally irrational government and “The Science” (probably trademarked by now and has nothing to do with science whatsoever), it’s never going to happen. Honestly, I wonder if the Turnip and Pelosi were even actually vaccinated or was it saline solution in the syringe? I’m leaning toward the latter. None publicly vaccinated had any side effects and considering their ages, that’s as likely as Peter Pan being real. Yes, your government and MSM WILL lie to you.

    I guess now that the Turnip is in office tomorrow, the vaccine is suddenly “safe”. Of course, he was involved in the swine flu fiasco, as was Fauci, but stupid people get slapped down over and over when they can’t learn from the past. There’s enough Karen’s out there to keep the vaccine going for a while. Interesting that after 30 years of research, they MAGICALLY made mRNA vaccines work.

  5. John M. I use Windows 10 and latest Firefox too. Everything was fine until last Thursday or Friday. Chrome works fine for me on Briggs but not Firefox for the last few days. And it is the only site I have trouble on Firefox.

  6. MD,

    This is odd. Made no changes on this end. But I just emptied the cache, in case that was the problem.

  7. I almost couldn’t believe Monday’s numbers after Sunday’s number

    Just realized, Monday was MLK

    I believe both still bode well, I’ll still contend we’re now past peak, but not the freefall that Monday hinted at

  8. It should come as no surprise to read in the Yahoo News that the 29 Norwegian people who died after receiving the vaccine are “elderly and frail” .

    Suddendly, being old and sick are things to take into account when speaking about death. Who would have imagined it, after twelve months of silence…

  9. JohnM, Briggs, Sheri, Jerry, —
    Problem fixed. Bad cookie that had the name Santiago attached to it. Thanks for your suggestions.

  10. The money quote:

    “Why, then, do we panic now and not then? As with rich people finding fault in their purchases, the better things get, the more we react and complain.”

  11. Michael – All a QR code does is encode a string of characters in a visual representation (just like a supermarket barcode). So really the market is in fake data, which is harder to fake should there be a database where the string gets checked against in real-time.

    Our rulers have power over us that the Soviets only dreamed of having.

  12. What’s even worse is they are likely going to consider public key cryptography to determine the validity of a code – and it’s impossible to fake a key signature unless you have access to one of the issuing organization’s databases. Likely the breaking points will be doctors giving out the codes for cash, ‘pretending’ to inject someone.

  13. Use Dissenter browser app by Gab…best chrome fork going…all the phoning home removed and fast in my experience after using every browser made (I don’t work for them, but like to support liberty loving orgs).
    https://dissenter.com/

  14. Not sure why people are having issues with this site and Firefox. I’ve been using Firefox for about 15 years – the last 10 of that with a MacBook Pro since 2011, and now with a MacBook Air since 2019. No problems here (even with ad-ons like NoScript, Disconnect, and AdBlocker).

    I wanted to switch after the way they cancelled Eich, but I’ve just never found one I like as well in terms of aesthetics, user-friendliness, and setup (why does every browser not have simple options like a permanently visibly sidebar for saved links to easily navigate too…that’s all it would take, but some make their browsers so cumbersome to use, I just can’t quit Firefox. Tried that Brave last summer…just terrible aesthetics and setup options; Chrome and Safari haven’t re-tried for years because they’ve always been awful).

  15. Michael Dowd and Sheri,
    I am praying for any poor soul who uses the stinking satanic Silly Conn valley censoring stuff.
    I use only Duckduckgo or Yippy for searching or access. I refuse (on pain of lightening strike) to use or link to any of them.
    Back in the really bad Penal Laws days of catholic persecution in Ireland, there was a cruel landlord in County Mayo called Captain Boycott.
    All his tenants refused to pay his exorbitant rent. The term Boycott was born.

  16. There are two kinds of lockdowns. The old kind that occur every winter when people congregate in bars, bowling alleys, theaters, holiday gatherings, indoor parties, etc. The new kind where people stay at home and have only essential contact with others, grocery shopping, doctor visits, and, for those providing essential services, working.

    The new kind of lockdown is much less likely to cause exposure and infection than the old kind.

  17. The question is “do government imposed lockdowns moderate the pandemic or do they make it worse?” Briggs’ position is that they make it worse. If he is right, there are aspects of the government imposed lockdowns that are not addressed in my analysis.

  18. Word weenie quibble: “Norway put the breaks on the Pfizer vaccine.” “brakes” (unless they cooked it 🙂
    Browser discussion: I am mystified why anyone who professes to love their liberty and privacy (inextricably linked, these days) would use one of Google’s primary surveillance tools to browse the internet. Equally confused why anyone of that description would browse (much less post to) any controversial site without configuring whatever browser they use to disable history and erase all non-optional accumulated data on browser close. VPNs are a good idea, as well. I’m reminded of the putatively well-intended, but not overly bright, individuals who recently charged into the capital carrying powered-up smart phones that were logged into Google accounts (bearing their actual identities) and had location services enabled… C’mon, at least make the FBI work a little for their arrests. I may try Dissenter, at least as an alternative, as I have found a small number of sites with administrators who are so incompetent or lazy that only a Chrome-based browser is recognized.

  19. I guess health status & healthcare privacy (HIPAA) are just thrown overboard in the rush to impose a vaccination passport. The QR code is a BIG TECH version a forearm tattoo–this time designating the in-crowd, as opposed to those being ostracized, singled-out.

  20. Briggs, some of your readers may be unaware that the Covid vaccine is developed using kidney cells extracted from live aborted babies.   I beg you all, to take one hour from your busy lives to watch this excellent video interview from LifeSite News:

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/the-unborn-babies-used-for-vaccine-development-were-alive-at-tissue-extraction

    “Acker speaks about her research into the HEK-293 cell line specifically, and talks about the number that’s at the end of that cell line name. “HEK” stands for Human Embryonic Kidney and the “293” actually reveals the number of experiments that a specific researcher did to develop that cell line.  
    “It doesn’t mean there were two hundred and ninety-three abortions, but for two hundred and ninety-three experiments, you would certainly need far more than one abortion. We’re talking probably hundreds of abortions”…..
    “They will actually deliver these babies via cesarean section. The babies are still alive when the researchers start extracting the tissue; to the point where their heart is still beating, and they’re generally not given any anesthetic, because that would disrupt the cells that the researchers are trying to extract. 
    So, they’re removing this tissue, all the while the baby is alive and in extreme amounts of pain. So, this makes it even more sadistic…”

    We understand that at least half of our “Catholics” are pro-abortion, or at the very least voted for a pro-abortion president (with advanced dementia, no less), Joe Biden.  Indeed, Pope Francis has expressed support for Joe Biden, as have many “Catholic” bishops and archbishops and cardinals and consecrated religious.   We also understand that the US Conference of Catholic Bishops has come out in favor of this vaccine.

    Acker explains in her video why this vaccine is dangerous, not just to the babies sacrificed for its development, but for the recipients.  If that’s not convincing enough, here’s a composite of social media posts documenting severe illness and death after these Covid vaccinations:

    https://prezi.com/i/byzl22mqwfaa/experiences-following-cvv/

    All of this begs the question, which Acker addresses in her video, why are we being encouraged, possibly even forced, to take a frankly dangerous vaccine, for an illness with a 99.8% survival rate, where almost all fatalities occur in the age-range of 78-83, in a country where the average life span, anyway, is 79 years?   

    I urge you all to become informed by watching Dr. Ackerman’s video and reviewing the linked social media testimony;  then, give thoughtful prayer as to whether you want to receive this Covid vaccine, or allow your children to receive it.  Thank you, and may God bless you.

  21. Hello
    I think you will enjoy the presentation by this statistician from India, exposing the remarkably sleazy manipulations of vaccine effect statistics, as practiced by official agencies always trying to help the vaccine industry

    This occured within a large international conference on vaccination that took place last year.

    The presentation I’m talking about is the one by Jacob M. Puliyel, third one from the top in the list of videos of the conference. It lasts 36 minutes.

    https://www.protectinghealthandautonomyinthe21stcentury.com/conference-live

    ———-
    Also, from a different site, unrelated to the above, this presentation of studies comparing the health of vaccinated vs unvaccinated children
    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated-part-11/

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