Our Coming Murder & Crime Wave

In 2020, we saw a large increase in murders. Homicides were up 30% from 2019, an increase which is called “historic“. “[G]un assault and aggravated assault rates climbed 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively.”

Most of the increase, that linked report demonstrates, came from large cities, such as where BLM riots took place. The “‘precipitous rise’ in murders during the emergence of civil unrest and protests following George Floyd’s death” are admitted.

The riots have declined, but summer is ahead of us. And even if riots aren’t repeated, given the apologia for the murders and other violent crime by our rulers and media, and the lack of desire to punish crime, crime will only increase. Though crime might not hit peak 2020 levels in 2021 (though some say it will), it will rise from 2019 levels and increase from there.

Using history as a guide, most of these increases will in black crime. Most of this will be black-on-black crime, but back-on-non-black will also increase.

According to official FBI statistics, blacks committed 40-69% of all murders in 2019. The 2020 numbers by race aren’t posted yet.

Blacks are about 13.4% of the population.

The 40-69% range is because 29% of all murderers have an unknown race. Assuming none of these are black gives 40%; assuming all gives 69%.

The same calculation for whites: assuming no unknown murders are white gives 29% of all murderers are white, assuming all unknowns are white gives 59%.

Whites are about 60% of the population.

Thus, no matter what, blacks are more murderous than whites. (Incidentally, similar statistics are found in England and other places.)

You have to be careful because race is often unknown when the criminal is not arrested. Arrest numbers/percentages therefore differ.

Here are the arrest breakdowns (2019): When race is known, blacks were about 51% of murder arrestees, and whites were 46%.

Blacks are arrested at rates greater than their population percentage for all crimes (rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, arson, forgery, etc) except DUI and drunkenness, where they are just under parity (defined as as many crimes as population, in percent).

It’s doubtful we can come to an exact estimate for the race of the unknown murderers, but there is good reason to suppose a large number are black (and that a lot of these crimes are black-on-black). Most of this evidence comes from policing, and how it is being drawn back in areas with large black populations. And, as said above, the reluctance to punish.

We recall, as a recent example, the story of the two black girls who hijacked an Uber driver’s car during an attempted robbery, who murdered the driver, and got a “cushy plea deal.

Then there are crimes like these:

This next meme illustrates why there is not only reluctance to punish, but why efforts to forestall crime are unsupported or called “racist”.

Car jackings (video) and home invasions are up (video).

We saw recently that a young black man punched and killed an elderly non-black man because, said the killer, he was called a “nigger”. Hearing–or claiming to have heard—this word creates the circumstances for justifiable homicide, say some (and this).

Those are only illustrations. There is also more systematic evidence.

Quote from a 17 May 2021 Newsweek article on decreased policing and punishment:

When the Antifa/Black Lives Matter riots broke out in the summer of 2020 and violent crime dramatically spiked across the country, Soros-backed Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón in particular advanced a notably soft-on-crime prosecutorial approach. That hands-off approach has continued unabated in 2021.

Before taking office in Los Angeles, Gascón worked as the district attorney in San Francisco, a city that led in both violent and property crimes in California and all-too frequently resisted making arrests when needed to maintain basic public safety. Now, crime is spiking under Gascón’s leadership as the chief law enforcement officer of over 10 million Angelenos…

Gascón justifies his soft-on-murder approach by connecting the death penalty to racism. “In light of its unequal application to people of color, the death penalty inflicts an extraordinary amount of harm to the moral authority of our justice system,” he wrote in an order. In other words, Gascón is forfeiting the pursuit of real justice in the name of woke social justice.

It can hardly be argued a “soft-on-murder approach” will lead to a decrease in murders. The death penalty objection, which anyway is wrong about race, is really moot. Since 1977, California has executed 17 criminals, and the last execution was in 2006.

The prediction is that black crime will increase in LA. And in other areas which adopt similar policies. These lax, even anarcho-tyrannical, policies are evidence many of the non-arrested murderers are black.

Another example. During and after the 2020 riots, there were many calls, and even some actions, to reduce funding to policing. Police in Minnesota, at least, withdrew vigilance. As a result, violent crime increased by 21% in 2020. But there was also a 250% increase in gunshot victims. (This points to a difficulty comparing murder numbers year on year, because access to lifesaving medicine can differ markedly.) Also: “rape is up 22% and robbery is up 59% compared to” 2019. These number, of course, are due in part to the mayhem of the riots.

There is no one arguing that the increases in murders and violence are primarily due to whites, Asians, or Hispanics instead of blacks.

Indeed, the opposite is true. It is claimed there are “racial inequities in unsolved murder cases”. This article uses GIS to show most unsolved murders are in predominately black areas. The Washington Post agrees: “Some cities, such as Baltimore and Chicago, solve so few homicides that vast areas stretching for miles experience hundreds of homicides with virtually no arrests.”

Since most murderers know their victims, and since most unsolved (non-arrested) murders are in predominately black areas, it is reasonable to conclude most of the unknown-race murderers are black. And thus something toward the higher end of the black murder rate is more likely correct. (Though we cannot arrive at an exact number.)

Now comes this: “What caused the dramatic rise of crime and blight in American cities from 1950 to 2000?” This is a long and rich article, which I hope you will read. Its conclusion is that, historically, black violence, enhanced by apologies and unwillingness to enforce the law because “racism”, comes before white (and now other races) flight. And that flight leads to greater crimes in the areas in which whites (and now others too) used to live.

The author concludes (all typos sic):

It may make readers uncomfortable that this essay has put so much emphasis on violence committed by black people. People who focus too much on selecting anectdotes of black crime are often accused of cherry-picking facts to further a racist narrative. I can only hope you believe me when I say that when I first started reseaching the problem of urban decay over a decade ago, the analysis in this post was not something I set out to prove. Rather, I set out to find as many first-hand, narratives accounts of urban decay and “white flight” as I could. I wanted to learn the story from the people who were actually there, or from the people who interviewed the people who were actually there. And these are the stories I found, over and over again. And these were the stories that were almost completely ommitted from my college courses — we only ever heard that white people left because the suburbs were so much better — without hearing why people thought the suburbs were better. We heard about block busters promoting fear — without learning that the fears were justified, not irrational.

It should also be pointed out that it is erroneous to single out violent young black men as the villains in this story. I think a lot of American politics is basically manipulating enforcement of the law in order to steal turf from other people. A fair amount of blame goes to the liberal WASP establisment, who in their battle with the ethnic white political power, relaxed enforcement of the law in black areas, hooked them on welfare, and used black people as a tool for claiming political power.

Right now we are in a vicious cycle. In academic and policy wonk circles, any criticism of “black crime” is considered victim blaming and possibly racist. The problems of the black community are instead pinned on segregation and racist policing. Yet it is not segregation that causes the crime. And every time we try to integrate, without fixing the crime problem, integration fails because white people flee the violence. And while police misbehavior is a problem, under-policing is also a big problem. When we cannot honestly describe the problem, when we cannot propose proper solutions, the problem only becomes worse.

The old cycle is repeating itself. Black crime, much of it black-on-black, will rise because much of it will go unpursued and unpunished. Whites, and also Asians and Hispanics, will flee blacks to what they hope are safer enclaves. This will be called “racism” by all the powers-that-be, especially when non-blacks try to resist black crime. The force of our rulers’ false rhetoric will cause a further decrease in the pursuit of crime, and an acceleration in the flight.

The increase stops when enough non-blacks have fled, leaving enclaves with large black populations which see many crimes go unreported. See historically Detroit as a good example. This, of course, is a difficult contention to prove, because what isn’t written down isn’t officially noticed.

There is no solution. None that would be politically acceptable, at any rate. Though perhaps the idea of allowing blacks to police themselves in large black areas might catch on. If adopted, this would create areas not unlike tribal reservations. Yet because “disparities” between these areas and other areas would be noted, they would not be allowed to last.

Note also that this analysis does not account for the official government policy of saying “white supremacists” are the nation’s greatest threat, or actions of politicians like the mayor of Chicago who refuses to talk to whites, and the other actions which seek to purge non-leftist whites from the political arena.

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Categories: Culture, Statistics

34 replies »

  1. Blacks are stupid and violent. They have always been stupid and violent. Culture matters. Biology matters. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

    For those who claim that blacks were less violent when they were persecuted – yes, that is true. To an extent. Then as now, since black areas weren’t really policed, no reports of violence were taken. And they were, for the most part, too terrified of the reprisals to target whites.

    Now they’re no longer afraid of us, and show their true colors.

  2. Whites, and also Asians and Hispanics

    When did being Hispanic come to mean non-white?
    Hispanics are European after all. Are Italians and Germans non-white? What about Albanians? Is it possible this non-white designation is an attempt to cash in on victimhood?

  3. Racism runs rampant here. It makes the KKK looks actually tolerant. Damn.

    This is just history repeating itself, though you have to be smart enough and not racist enough to see that. Maybe the Huffington Post audience is brighter…….

  4. Repatriation is the solution.

    Reparation for what? Slavery? The world “slavery” is derived from “Slav” as they were commonly used as slaves. If blacks can get reparation then how about Slavs?

    My ancestors came here in the early 1900s as children. Why should I pay reparations for what was done a half century or more before they arrived? Should current border crossers have to pay as well? But then, if they should, maybe they’d have second thoughts on coming here.

  5. Ah I see it now! “Repatriation” and not “reparation”. My reading skills need work.

  6. I see it now! Repatriation vs reparation. My reading skills need some more work.

  7. The money quote, in my view, and where ought to be the focus, was this:

    “It should also be pointed out that it is erroneous to single out violent young black men as the villains in this story. I think a lot of American politics is basically manipulating enforcement of the law in order to steal turf from other people. A fair amount of blame goes to the liberal WASP establishment, who in their battle with the ethnic white political power, relaxed enforcement of the law in black areas, hooked them on welfare, and used black people as a tool for claiming political power.”

    Before the late 1950s, predominantly-black communities often had higher literacy rates, and lower crime rates, then did whites. What changed, and are blacks really more violent than other races, because of their race?

    Look at Ireland, Europe, Bosnia/Serbia, Asia… name it, the spirit of Cain is everywhere. We’re all prone, especially when we’re permitted; and many ARE permitted. The more interesting question is WHY?

    WHY are women allowed to murder their full-term babies? Why are Planned Parenthood abortuaries located primarily in black and brown neighborhoods?

    WHY is all of this insane violence, the shooting, looting, raping, sacking and pillaging, allowed to go unpunished, and even encouraged (ie no charges for stealing less than $999) in the name of “social justice”?

    WHY do only the wealthy have a choice about where to send their kids to school?

    WHY are fentanyl, opioids, and meth are allowed to pour over our southern border, killing upwards of 80K every year, most of them young people, and addicting millions more? WHY is this not considered chemical warfare?

    WHY are these same addicts and mentally ill, along with the usual bums and hobos, allowed to camp and defecate and shoot-up, in our streets, sidewalks and parks, without consequences?

    WHY are people who use guns to commit crimes, allowed right back out on the street, while law-abiding gun owners are vilified and police departments are “defunded”?

    WHY did so many states sign up for an on-line vote “tabulating” software system, at great cost, which is vulnerable to hacking and ballot-counting manipulations, has servers located outside our country, and was originally used in Venezuela?

    And finally…WHY is it legal to knowingly transmit HIV, which kills 700K per year and permanently sickens millions more, but it’s illegal in many places to go about your business outdoors without a ceremonial face diaper?

    Well, there IS one answer to all these questions:

    In the 1950s, Soviet leader Nikita Kruschev pounded his shoe on the podium, promising to complete the work of Joseph Stalin and “bury” the United States, while at the same time, China completed its revolution in 1952, becoming Communist China; in the 1950s, both entities began spreading their errors of atheistic communism, their virus, if you will, into our schools, universities, other public institutions, politics and corporations.

    Race and class warfare, the tools of revolution, are now institutionalized and made “systematic”, to DESTROY, in order to “Build Back Better.”

    Some people think Communist China has already won this war, including the World Economic Forum, who named Xi Ping as its thought leader, and Pope Francis, global cheerleader for the “the vaccination of mankind, and the new economic world order.”

    This from the great publication, Lifesite News:

    “Aside from the Vatican’s bizarre conference to promote global vaccine compliance…..the height of this surreal propaganda thus far has to be the “Concert to Reunite the World” staged at the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles County on May 8.

    “It should come as no surprise…that the theme of this event was that the world must be reunited by vaccination. Vaccination has become the unholy communion of a veritable mask-wearing cult of Covid, some 70,000 members of which were screaming their lungs out in the stadium for various pop and rock performers — with every member of the audience wearing the requisite ceremonial mask despite being vaccinated.

    “No “social distancing” was required for this writhing mob, however, whereas the performers and speakers, including the Bidens, Prince Harry and the “fully vaccinated Foo Fighters” (as David Letterman introduced them) all dispensed with masks, those being required only for the groundlings.

    “Not to be outdone in promoting this New World Order of the Vaccinated, Pope Bergoglio delivered a personal video message (in Spanish) to the vast crowd in SoFi Stadium. Condemning “the virus of individualism,” he called for “an internationalism of vaccines.” God Himself, said Bergoglio, “instils in our hearts… a spirit of justice that mobilises us to ensure universal access to vaccines and the temporary suspension of intellectual property rights; a spirit of communion that allows us to generate a different, more inclusive, just and sustainable economic model.” God wills the vaccination of mankind and, with this, a new world economic order.”

  8. Kent Clizbe, I know. This time, it should be done right. A successful precedent exists – population exchanges and expulsions after WWII.

  9. One of the biggest impediments to the implementation of strong gun control laws has been the fact that violent crime rates have trended down for the last few decades.

    The left has needed to reverse this “bad” trend in order to get the average Joe to agree to turn in their guns.

  10. The establishment is too busy continuing to obsess over a few dozen LARPers invited into the Capitol building by police (clearly part of an entrapment game/psyop to create an event to justify an already planned Biden-Pelosi crackdown on the Right) on January 6, and purging the military, to pay attention to actual crime and the domestic terrorism wave of the Antifa and Burn Loot Murder gangs. Plus police everywhere are quitting in droves, and new recruitment is way down…dwindling resources left to fight crime even if they wanted to…Lawless anarcho-tyranny is America’s future.

    Funny how we still don’t know (officially…there has been some compelling sleuthing online to indicate who he is – not even Capitol Police, but an FBI Special Agent with checkered past, which may be why they are hiding his identity…what was he doing there to begin with? This same agent also just happened to be on hand at the shooting of those GOP softball players a few years back. What a coincidence eh?) the name of the person who murdered Ashli Babbitt…any time some black guy acts crazy and gets himself shot at a traffic stop, we know the cop’s identity and entire family history within hours, but…an unarmed white woman shot in the face by a black cop/agent in the Capitol?…silence.

  11. Everyday WCCO in the Twin Cities has many stories about the “reform” of the police (meaning defunding). When there are riots, the articles are usually in support of them.

    Most days there are also stories about people killed in shootings, with the story often remarking on the record number of shootings this year.

    Needless to say the dots are never connected.

  12. Considering how many enemies has Briggs, (all typos sic) has to be one of the boldest things he’s ever written.

  13. @Jorgen b; How so? Are you referring to the Urban Institute report on undercounting of minorities in the 1990 and 2020 census, or something else? And why does it matter in the context of crime?

  14. Battle Beagle is neither harmless, nor an American yard dog, as far as I can tell based on its behavior one year ago when the account pimped Coronadoom.

    “Some cities, such as Baltimore and Chicago, solve so few homicides that vast areas stretching for miles experience hundreds of homicides with virtually no arrests.” = Systemic Racism, obviously. If only white people would be less racist, and do the work, and be antiracist, Blacks could let go of the defensive posture which they express as “snitches get stitches.”

    If whites would behave, Blacks would be freed to behave.

    Am I doing this right? Have I done the work?

  15. Black people are a tool, or weapon, being wielded by the enemy of white people, to distract, demoralize, demonize, and destroy white people. This enemy hates blacks and whites equally, and is empowered when we hate and fight each other. This enemy has tremendous resources of money and influence. They tell blacks that whites have it in for them, that whites are unreasoning haters of their race, and the cause of all their misfortunes. That is a lie. But too many blacks can’t see that, just as too many whites are blind to the manipulations of an enemy that profits by conflict. We are different peoples, both made by God, and with our own characteristic strengths and weaknesses. We both do better living among our own, and working to reduce frictions between the two groups as much as possible. There are blacks who see this situation clearly, and deplore the cynical manipulations of their people for the purpose of advancing a revolution that degrades and enslaves blacks. We are not enemies, black and white. But we are the hated enemies of those who seek to profit by our conflict, a vicious enemy who constantly pours gas on the flames.

  16. Shari: “”Racism runs rampant here.”

    Shari dear, you are a racist. You are also a white supremicist, and a white terrorist. You have white privilege and support systemic white racism. You are a white devil. You may think of yourself as a good white, that you’re not one of those bad white racists, but you are being a fool. And I can prove it. Show us your arm. What color is that skin? White. ALL WHITES ARE RACIST DEVILS. According to our enemy. And our enemy makes the rules. Chew that one over in your girlie noodle, you ridiculous racist.

  17. Dean — We’re not running or hiding. We’re surviving. Still living the dream. The turmoil is isolated. Turn off your TV and it all but disappears. Those murders are in the blue counties, mostly. I departed the decaying s-hole urban blight 50 years ago. Never looked back and not a smidgen of regret.

  18. Mike, I know what you mean. I turned off the Tube over 40 years ago. And it’s wise to retreat to like-minded enclaves. Still, they’re coming for us, and we’ll have to respond. I know that you see that, too.

  19. @DAV – “When did being Hispanic come to mean non-white? Hispanics are European after all. ”
    In Europe, this is true. Here in the USA, Hispanic is a synonym for Latino.
    Latinos are, for the most part, definitely not white. Especially the millions of illiterate peasant invaders. They are more properly described as “Indians not taxed”.

  20. It does appear that we are heading toward “tribal reservations”. Everything in the culture is geared toward increased segregation – in fact, it is highly desired by black activists.

  21. ¶I still recall distant memories of the U.S. RED LINE era. Certain zones were roughly known as “the other side of the tracks”. The impetus behind the spontaneous “social zoning regimes” back then was not so much “segregation” (or “discrimination”) as it was suburban development “marketing”. Around D.C. the AMTRAK rail lines served as convenient pre-described map lines of demarcation along which impassable fencing could be logically erected – ostensibly for rail safety (all on the public dime). Long and tendentious debates were held concerning the need for “community” overpass stairways ~ vs ~ channeling all Black Folks through a city center filter. In the end no overpasses were built ~ because of “funding limitations” ~ and ~ “safety concerns”. Thus traffic-corridors became crime-ways, and driving-while-black (particularly at night) became a suspect profile. ¶I hesitate to descend into more sordid and telling details, but suffice it to say that the white suburbs generally had names that were leafy sounding or evoked tranquility and academic promise. The zoned off regions (which had preceded the suburbs as places of community often by a century) had names like LINCOLN PARK. The population spurts and housing booms of the day helped spawn ponderous inquiries into the philosophical intent behind: Separate But Equal & The Dream post-JFK. ¶It is my personal view that social engineering gone awry accounts for much of (a very very significant part of ) the violence precipitated by blacks in America. Particularly the quadrennial rent-a-riots which are undeniably provoked (ignited) through coordinated media events in order to corral votes “against oppression”. Tie this together with warped welfare socialism projects which perpetuate fracturing of nuclear family ~ an education system which emphasizes “political values” over skill building ~ and the incessant pop-music-machine-messaging about getting back at those who are holding you under. ¶ Affirmative Action in all forms including Reciprical Racial Sensitivity Training will only exacerbate and embed these endemic problems. The singular solution is re-instituting localized controls over education and economic opportunity (i.e. the trades and skills). ¶ Since before 1964 the (fully corrupted) Federal Government has been plowing roughshod through America’s cultural fields hewn by hand and heart under the sensible traditions of earlier generations. In this wake nothing good can take root. You cannot force anyone to Love Thy Neighbor.

  22. When dealing with murder and crime stats, it’s important to realize that most “Assault and Battery” cases are homicides that missed. Also, one of the factors in play that led to the sharp drop in homicides in the 20-some years up until last year was the improvement in trauma care. A lot of people who would have died 40 years ago survived and were therefore not murdered, “just” assaulted.

  23. The problem is not “black people,” it’s a certain segment of whoever happens to be the poorest and least able to work, form stable families, etc. Right now in most of the country that is black urban people – it’s been Irish people (like my ancestors) and others. A poisonous subculture has developed within that group, which perpetuates it. a wide variety of policies, especially policies of Democrats, keep all of it going. But we have a large and growing black middle class that ALSO flees those communities. Its members become as invisible as pro-life women are to Democrats. They are made to feel like traitors if they don’t support the subculture and the awful policies, and while many of them do return to urban schools and churches to mentor, teach, run sports teams, etc., many don’t, out of perfectly legitimate fear of violent crime (and the added fear people of other ethnicities don’t have of being mistaken for someone else and shot or attacked). I live in a middle-class neighborhood that’s half black, I know these things first-hand instead of only reading about them. But my city is run by Democrats and people keep electing idiots who perpetuate the policies that keep it all going. There are a few black conservatives, they get little or no support. The ticket to political power is Democrat support, and once you go there you have to support every crappy Democrat social policy and cause that comes down the pike. It’s the same machine that made Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi give up every principal they ever had.

  24. You should also, more properly, look at shootings rather than homicides. One large reason for the drop in gun homicides since the 70s is that trauma care has been improving significantly, so lots of shooting victims who would’ve died, now survive. The study linked below is from 2002, but trauma care has improved even more since then.

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