I PAT MY BACK
Before we begin our main update, allow me to congratulate myself.
Jaw-dropping exchange between Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson and Graham Medley—chair of COVID modeling for UK Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)—in which Medley admits outcomes not requiring restrictions are systematically omitted from SAGE’s models. https://t.co/05kvEK7gmE pic.twitter.com/KFBgb8AAH3
— Michael P Senger (@MichaelPSenger) December 19, 2021
A screenshot of the picture, in case it disappears, is here.
If a model is told to say “Lockdowns work” it will—it must—conclude lockdowns work.
But this model is not independent evidence or proof lockdowns work. “Lockdowns work” was an assumption. It remains an assumption. Replace lockdowns with whatever solutions you like. Same thing.
At least we have an Expert admitting these simple, and indeed indisputable, facts. If you saw yesterday the definition of an Expert and expertocracy, you will understand.
Long-time readers will also know that I have warned about trumpeting “cases”, that “cases” are not cases, that “cases” are fake & gay, that nobody should talk about “cases” because “cases” only generates needless fear. For instance:
JUST IN – New York reports the highest one-day increase of #COVID19 cases on record. NY has the highest vaccination rate among the most populous states in the U.S.
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 19, 2021
Oh my! “Cases”! What about something that really matters?
“Cases” are fake and gay. Here is the final proof, for which I will also accept congratulations.
CNN: “Biden admin eyes potentially stark shift in messaging around ending pandemic … toward focusing on severity instead of case numbers.”
— Jerry Christmas ??? (@JerryDunleavy) December 19, 2021
It took these brilliances two years to figure out what we figured immediately, and they’re doing it for purely political reasons because they want to declare success, but better late than never.
Wait. I changed my mind. Here is final proof “cases” are fake and gay.
Not only does this prove “cases” are fake and gay, this is direct confirmation Experts and rulers are mewling effeminate cowardly simpering jelly-livered shaking nitwits.
I loathe despise and abominate propagandists.
It seems we are headed for a (keyword) #ViralBlizzard.
— Bree A Dail (@breeadail) December 21, 2021
This is being written Monday evening, before they wheel Biden out Tuesday to announce more “solutions” to our routine pandemic (which, as a pandemic per se, has been over for some time).
The word is penalties will be coming to “unvaccinated Americans.”
I don’t know what these punishments for failure to obey will be, but my guess is vaccine slave badges for travel. Show your papers or no airplanes or trains. “Your paperz are not in order.” But these punishments would not start until after New Years. Which would instantly disprove the “science” behind them, because if they work, they should be used immediately.
And they don’t work. However, we have two year’s experience showing observational evidence does not matter (incidentally, this is why falsification is a silly philosophy). Rulers ignore all but their desire for power.
We saw the ladies on an Appeals court reinstated the OSHA power grab, so now it goes to SCOTUS, which is filled with progs, woke, the cucked, and two based justices. Two is not enough.
The Court has surprised us before, so there is still hope. Still time for you to pray.
I have been warning us since late summer that, as always happens, deaths would begin creeping up in fall, peaking in January. As always. I warned us to get ready for it, as our arrogant masters and Experts, loath to admit error, would mandate, yet again, all their “solutions” that failed before.
They, on the other hand, assured us, often and loudly and with force, their “solutions”, including the vex, would be 100% effective.
Nah we were all there pic.twitter.com/R3mGzmpC5p
— s o l o ?? (@solo_XV) December 17, 2021
Here is a basic science question. If made to choose between two rival models, one that predicts Reality fairly well but with occasional error, and the other which is almost always wrong, which model should you pick?
Right: the one that guarantees you the best living. Which is the model of Experts and rulers.
For never forget that the likelihood of a model being correct is only one component in the decision calculus. The other is the gain and cost of the choice itself.
It’s true the Reality-based model predicts Reality better. But that doesn’t make it the best choice, not when your livelihood depends on agreeing with the regime. Just as fear of being called a “racist” hamstrings Republicans, fear of being a “denier” hampers Experts. Going against the “Consensus” can be a career-destroying event.
A reader reminded me of this Consensus event (from the Wiki article on the Appeal to Authority Fallacy):
[L]eading American zoologist Theophilus Painter [in 1923] declared, based on poor data and conflicting observations he had made, that humans had 24 pairs of chromosomes. From the 1920s until 1956, scientists propagated this “fact” based on Painter’s authority, despite subsequent counts totaling the correct number of 23. Even textbooks with photos showing 23 pairs incorrectly declared the number to be 24 based on the authority of the then-consensus of 24 pairs.
Simple math shows this error held sway for over three decades. In the modern era. That, my dear readers, is a long time.
This is, of course, one example of a legion of such blunders—a list of which is in a separate chapter of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. All made by our intellectual betters.
Now the odd thing about history is that most believe extreme events only occur in history, and never in their own times. This is strange because the list of Consensus events is large and important. I mean, the list is about important matters in science. And there must be many more smaller events mostly unremarked on because of their relative unimportance.
The only possible rational conclusion is that these events, massive Expert blunders, must continue to happen.
One is happening now.
MORE VERIFIED PREDICTIONS
Speaking of verified predictions, remember when conspiracy theorists were dismissed as conspiracy theorists for this?
Beep boop beep: Your vaccination record has been verified ? pic.twitter.com/dpAkSCudxf
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) December 17, 2021
This, too, is, as long-time readers know, one in an endless line of conspiracy theories come true, each the vindication of conspiracy theorist predictions.
I emphasize conspiracy theorists because the words together clearly do not mean what each means independently and taken in series. Instead, the term can only have a working definition of regime-despised Realist.
How’s this headline grab you? “Health officials to weigh limits on J&J vaccine as deadly blood clots continue“.
Remember this picture we did about two weeks back?
VAERS data shows adults taking J&J were reported as dying much earlier than the other vexxines. I’ll count the CDC’s actions as another verification. The data also showed kids taking Pfizer were recorded as dying more often. Pfizer is experimenting with the kiddies even now, upping their dosages.
Shouldn’t vexxine companies worry about these deaths? Nah.
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 16, 2021
You already know that you, dear non-refugee citizen, have no value to rulers.
Steve Kirsch has something like James Randi’s old challenge, which fits here: “Who wants to be a millionaire?“. Examples “I will bet anyone $1M that the CDC lying to everyone about number of deaths” and “$1M research grant if you think Mathew Crawford made a math error that would change the result”.
If you are one of the woke who are sure of vexxine utopia and so on, prove it and make your million.
CULT OF THE MASK
Both [CEOs] Kelly and Parker, who each have announced plans to retire as CEOs in the coming months, mentioned that high-grade HEPA air filters on planes capture virtually all airborne contamination and air quality is helped by how frequently cabin air is exchanged with fresh air from outside the cabin.
On the way out, they can speak the truth.
This follows a major propaganda organ piece “The CDC’s Flawed Case for Wearing Masks in School“. This is most curious, because it admits the Experts at the CDC were wrong about masks. It will be interesting to see what happens to the author.
PUNISH THE DISOBEDIENT
A “deradicalisation” programme like those given to former terrorists or cult members might be the only way to dissuade some hardcore antivaxxers from their beliefs, according to one psychology expert…
Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, chair in cognitive psychology at the University of Bristol, was keen to stress that many of those are likely to be “marginalised” people who are “very difficult to reach for anything”, and for whom access is likely to be the biggest issue rather than psychological or ideological factors.
But for a small section of “hardcore refuseniks”, he said, it may be difficult to reach them by conventional means because their beliefs are so ingrained….
Another measure would be introducing a vaccine mandate, which he said “will disgruntle a few people” but “can be effective”.
This Lewandowsky is ignorant of the stats, epidemiology, and medicine, but, like we saw yesterday, take Experts in the fields at their word. Therefore—do read yesterday’s post—the people who disagree with Experts are flawed in some way. They must be taken in hand and made to believe Expert “truth.”
The Expert Lewandowsky joins the Experts at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (a hilarious word here, because it means a one-way communication). They too wonder how people can disagree with Experts, and have concluded these deniers must be a security threat.
They are now pushing “super immunity“, which is, they say, conferred after one has the bug while vexxed and recovered.
This is partly propaganda in acknowledging that nearly everybody (except naturally immune) will get the bug eventually, but married to the propaganda that the vex protects against infection. The two beliefs are mutually incompatible, but incompatibility with logic or Reality, as we have seen, means nothing.
Buy my new book and own your enemies: Everything You Believe Is Wrong.
This has gone on far too long, so only a few numbers this week, all good news.
First—-drumroll—-the glorious Return Of Flu!
The drop off at the very end is late reporting. But the bump is there and real.
I offer no causal explanations for this, but it must be good news, because it signals a return, in a way, to the old normal. Another signal is this, the weekly attributed coronadoom deaths.
Ignoring the late-count drop off, yes, deaths are indeed going up. But only by a very little.
We expected the rise to be stronger, but while there was a bump up from the end of November, that was all it was, a bump. Daily December attributed deaths are like the were in October.
Yes, they may, and likely even will, rise again, but that they haven’t risen by now to where we expected is good news.
The Panic Index is decreasing:
Recall that ideally the Panic Index would be 1, but anything under, say, 5 to 10 is good. We’re just above it. This means people aren’t panicking as they have before.
Now the Worry Index: it too is decreasing, or at least holding steady:
Ideally, this is 0. We see the flattening after the Ominous Omicron announcement, but it isn’t really going up either.
All these numbers, especially the return of flu, have to bring some cheer. At just the right time of year.
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