Statistics

Let’s Look At All Cause Deaths Again

It’s been a while since we looked at all-cause deaths (some of this is for the new readers). This is the one statistic that can’t be cooked or juiced; or not easily, anyway.

We can’t trust entirely attributed coronadoom deaths. These are, as we have seen, too easy to boost. We certainly must not trust models that claim doom deaths have been underestimated. It’s not that it was impossible for a death to be incorrectly categorized as other than the doom, but given the inflamed climate, financial incentives to hospitals, and idiot levels of testing, the chance is low. Plus we cannot trust those who ever want to scream IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT!

The CDC collects counts, by age, of all deaths, and tries to categorize the causes. Because of the disparate state sources, collection happens slowly. It takes on average 8 weeks to get about 80%-90% of all counts, and a few months more to get all.

So whenever we look at the numbers, we have to recall the drop offs at the end are expected.

Now what we mustn’t do is, when we see the odd looking bumps in the all-cause data, to attribute all these to the doom itself. Mixed in with actual covid deaths are government “solution” deaths, like those (of whatever non-zero size) caused by vaccines. Or those caused by foolishly aggressive treatment. Or even those cause by despair and lack of access to hospitals for other diseases.

Here we go, then, the all cause weekly deaths since 2009 until Monday evening:

The thin lines are the years 2009 until early 2020, using the old way CDC used to count. They stopped that old way mid way through 2020, sometime after they signed some sort of contract with Microsoft (I believe), and they changed all their collection pages.

You can see a steady upward progression of the thin lines. This is caused by population increases in the USA. The thin purple line at Week 1 was the count for 2019. 2018-2019 was known as a harsh flu season—not remembered now, because there was no panic.

The thick red line is 2020. Notice very carefully that it was lower than we might have expected, until about Week 13, given the general upward trend of the numbers. It’s gruesome, but it means more were available to die than usual come the spring of 2020.

The panic was already well under way by Week 13 (end of March). The panic did nothing to stop the rise in doom deaths, which had just then started. This is the first of many lessons of history we ignore: Panic is stupid. Panic is effeminate. Panic kills.

If it were an “ordinary” year, with deaths being caused in the same kinds of ways as previous years, we’d expect thick red line to be, more or less, just above the other thin lines. It wasn’t, it was much higher so that we know something has changed in the causes of death.

Part of that was certainly the doom itself. Part of it was “solutions.” Septicemia deaths, for instance, saw a huge spike centered around April 2020. This was likely caused by ventilator panic (“General Motors! Stop making cars and make ventilators!”), which saw too many covid patients have tubes crammed down their throats by nervous, uh, doctors.

Look back the weekly all cause deaths. The dotted red line is the red line itself subtracting the official attributed covid deaths. The dotted line, in other words, are all deaths except covid.

Well, you can see that the dotted line is still a bit higher than just above the thin ones for parts of the year. Especially in the spring of 2020. The difference between the dotted line and where we might have seen it just above the thin ones represent deaths caused by something other than the doom.

Like government “solutions”. Like people being told to stay away from hospitals and denied, inter alia, cancer treatments. Or by drugs, prescribed and otherwise. Lockdowns. And so on. Panic kills.

The doom hit the north in spring 2020, and the south in summer 2020. But it faded a bit in the fall of 2020. A time when there was no vaccines. This proves there are other cures beside vaccines.

Anyway, it goes on. Green is 2021. At the beginning of the year, the dotted green lines are way below where would expect them. Which is just above the thin lines, roughly. This indicates, very likely, covid deaths were being over-attributed. And for a long time, too.

But then something else entered the system round about late spring, and into summer 2021. That dotted green line is too high. It could be the same causes that led to the dotted red line being too high. Maybe not, though. 2020 was the Year of the Lockdown, not 2021. Many cast out of work, businesses, livelihoods, and homes lost.

It was something different in 2021. Can you think of what it might be? Put your minds to solving this conundrum.

Sometime in the fall and into winter, the dotted green settled down to where we’d expect it, if it were a thin line. Whatever that something different was, it had cooled off by then. Funny, yes?

And that’s about as far as we can go. The blue is 2022, which looks low, but recall this is likely due to slow counting. However, even the thick green line at the end of 2021 was not that high, and it’s not likely the blue line will jump up.

Which means the all-cause deaths are likely where we’d expect them in a normal year.

In other words, there does not exist in this data any justification for panic.

People are still dying of the doom, just as they are, after two long years, dying of flu again. But they are also dying of cancer and heart disease at higher rates.

With no panic about those more important causes of death.

Here the same all cause deaths, but now monthly and broken down by age.

The doom was, and remains, an old person’s disease. There was never any reason to panic for those under 60 or so. There is still no reason. There was reason to have special care of the elderly and infirm, but not for anybody else. More kids die of pneumonia and about ten times as many die of car crashes. With no moral panic about cars.

Interestingly, the second picture shows a peak in deaths for those 45-54 years in the late summer early fall 2021; and a similar but smaller signal for 35-44 year olds, and smaller yet or 25-34 year olds.

Could have been the doom. But if it was, it was worse than the alpha variant, which was in the winter of 2020. Not likelym then. Could be the end of the delta, before the omicron. Or it could have been that something else we saw above, which was aggressively seeking out these ages. What was this something else?

The last plot shows the youngest, those under 24, had no special increase in deaths. Except possibly the 15-24 year olds. Something hit then in the spring of 2021. And remained kind of steady, up until even the rise of the omicron.

Any ideas what this curious cause might be?

Incidentally, the ominous omicron peaked about two weeks ago. Infections are down from their high, and heading lower. Deaths have just started dropping from their winter peak. As regular readers expected. And which we predicted months ago.

I repeat: There is nothing in the data to justify continuing the panic. Just as there is never any reason to panic.

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Categories: Statistics

23 replies »

  1. “ More kids die of pneumonia and about ten times as many die of car crashes. With no moral panic about cars.”

    Oh but the moral panic of car crashes is just starting to shift into high gear. The Secretary of Transportation, who was absent until now, has made an appearance. Not to solve the growing logjam of ships off SoCal, but to decry the carnage on our highways and byways. There are even rumors of “kill switches” being mandated in new cars in 2026.

  2. All I can say is if the world remains complacent after this epic sh*t-show about
    which there is nothing ‘accidental’ and is so relieved to have it behind them like
    the Syria operation everyone has forgotten we deserve the next mystery bug that
    crawls out of a test tube. In the immortal words of Klaus “Covid 19 is a once in a
    lifetime opportunity to reimagine the world.” The world he has in mind is staffed
    with AI robots and drones and it’s all happened before on other worlds. Crazy no…

  3. You write, “The doom hit the north in spring 2020, and the south in summer 2020. But it faded a bit in the fall of 2020. A time when there was no vaccines. This proves there are other cures beside vaccines.”

    Much obliged if you could unpack this. Specifically, what other “cures” does it prove exist besides vaccines? For example, are we considering seasonal variation as a cure?

  4. Matt: TY for your good efforts here. Two quick suggestions:

    1 – Please end your graphs with the latest good data (e.g. Jan 2022, above). To graph what is known to be inaccurate data is visually confusing.

    2 – Please discuss and come up with a 2020 (and 2021) total for the following COVID-19 policy (panic) caused deaths: e.g., hospitalization, suicides, drug overdoses, murders, vaccine caused deaths, etc. We can only attribute excess deaths to the actual COVID-19 virus, after these other new excess deaths are subtracted out.

    These are non-trivial. For example see:

    Etc.

  5. Mr Droz:

    “1 – Please end your graphs with the latest good data (e.g. Jan 2022, above). To graph what is known to be inaccurate data is visually confusing.”

    Yes! Yes! Yes!

    The “ignore the drop off on the end, it’s due to late reporting” makes it impossible for me to even look at these graphs!

    If it’s bad/late/irrelevant data, it might be best to leave it off.

    Then the graph tells a story without distracting and irrelevant/bad data.

    The only caveat needed with this display would be: “Data is delayed due to late reporting. Thus, graphs end +/- 14 days before present.”

    Thanks, Matt!

  6. For some reason the links were left off of my prior comment. Let me try again…

    They are:
    Higher # of Hospitalization Deaths: “https://journals.lww.com/journalpatientsafety/Fulltext/2013/09000/A_New,_Evidence_based_Estimate_of_Patient_Harms.2.aspx”

    Higher # of Suicides: “https://www.psycom.net/covid-19-suicide-rates”

    Higher # of Drug Overdoses: “https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html”

    Higher # of Murders: “https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020”

    Etc.

  7. The rise last year in the 15 – 24 yo category corresponds with when the mRNA shots became available to this age group. Perhaps the uptick is due to the ill advised vaccination of those many young people.

    News just in: A study out of Japan shows ivermectin lowering death and illness in those being treated for CV19.
    I can’t find the study in English but there’s this: https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/01/31/rogan-vindicated-ivermectin-shows-antiviral-effect-against-omicron-according-to-japanese-study-n1554530

  8. ”Just as there is never any reason to panic.

    Easy for you to say, Briggs, cool as a cucumber up in your arctic wasteland — you’re not living with the CONSTANT TERROR OF IMMINENT ATTACK BY INVISIBLE AIRBORN MONSTERS AIEEEEEAHH! THEY’RE EVERYWHERE! MONSTERS EVERYWHERE INSIDE PEOPLE FLOATING IN THE AIR INVISIBLE KILLERS ARE GOING TO GET US ALLLLLLLLL!!!!!’!!!!!!!! [pant… pant…] WASH YOUR HANDS WEAR YOUR MASK TAKE YOUR JAB RUN IN CIRCLES SCREAM AND SHOUT FEAR PANIC TERROR AAIEEEEAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    But if people aren’t panicked and frightened they might use their brains to figure out they’re being manipulated by lying panic-mongers with a stake in making people crazy and driving them off cliffs for fun and profit. Can’t have that. SO PUT THE PEDAL TO THE PANIC METAL!!!!!!!!!!

  9. I am wondering if we are missing another category. How many (probably mostly elderly) people got covid, recovered but died anyway months later? Maybe there is no way to know and maybe the numbers are too small. I have just one observation–my Mom. She got it, recovered, got the shots (they did a number on her) but then never got her oxygen level back to normal. She died in July six months after the shot and 9 months after recovering from covid. Just a thought.

  10. Red Skelton was a pioneer in television and he had his own variety shows during the Golden Age. He knew the power that the networks exerted over society and was bitter when he was canceled, despite very good ratings, from CBS in the 70s because they after a different “look” and were chasing demographics. He was prescient in an interview he gave back then where he opined about the vested interest the media have in convincing people it’s too dangerous to go out of the house so they’ll stay home glued to the screen.

  11. Austrian EXPERT threatens more mandatory vexxines for other non-covid things.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/austrian-bioethicist-mandatory-vaccines-should-also-be-imposed-measles-and-flu

    No children may study in school without the Mask of the Vexx… even though gub’mint no longer requires it!
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unmasked-students-face-immediate-suspension-loudoun-county-public-schools

    Good news! UK gub’mint will no longer force medical staff to get vexxined! Hooray! Bravo! But Joy is screaming! She is screaming beneath her mask!!!
    https://www.gloria.tv/post/CTwZXm4RYosX1kBzbLU8cJyw1
    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/uk-government-set-to-back-peddle-on-nhs-covid-jab-mandate-amid-fears-of-losing-80k-frontline-staff/
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/02/thomas-woods/another-mandate-was-just-scrapped/

    Austria now allows the unvexxed to leave their homes and step outside! Though they shall still not go inside anywhere else without the MARK OF THE VEXX!
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/01/31/end-of-corona-apartheid-austrias-unvaxxed-lockdown-ends-today/

    Uh… oh… Court tells Austrian EXPERT they have to start using facts now…
    https://mobile.twitter.com/HicksonMaike/status/1487991608058552320

    Based Kid Rock will no longer bawwitdabawdabangdabang with this tomfoolery anymore…
    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/kid-rock-says-he-wont-perform-venues-covid-19-vaccine-or-mask-mandates

    Uh… oh!!!
    https://nonvenipacem.com/2022/02/01/us-government-knows-covid-shots-do-egregious-health-damage-military-database-filled-with-hideous-injuries/
    https://nonvenipacem.com/2022/01/28/senate-testimony-on-covid-truth-banned-treatments-vaccine-injury-and-death-distilled-down-to-38-minutes-of-video-which-i-even-timestamped-for-aggressive-sharing-with-the-blue-pilled/

    But how…? HOW??? They was all fully vexxed and quadruply boosted!
    https://nonvenipacem.com/2022/01/26/stunning-vaccine-failure-in-four-of-the-most-vaxxed-countries-in-the-world-cases-and-deaths-soaring-look-at-the-charts-and-graphs/

    Denmark sets its people free! FREE!
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/02/no_author/as-of-tomorrow-denmark-admits-the-failure-of-all-covid-control-measures-including-vaccines/

  12. Soooo glad that the Living Triune God is in charge!!! Love reading all of these comments!!
    God bless, C-Marie

  13. Isn’t it funny how the original spread of Wuhan virus seemed to follow a script.

    In the U.S you had the spread from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, and in Australia the original spread came from the cruise ship Ruby Princess?

  14. Vaxzi airline guy threatens that masks must become a permanent fixture of airline travel safety. Just like all those useless 9/11 era security rules!
    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/masks-planes-become-permanent-anti-terror-rules

    The Lancet throws in the towel.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/02/emthe_lancetem_surrenders_and_declares_covid_pandemic_is_almost_over.html

    Sportsmen continuing to succumb to the vexx.
    https://ncrenegade.com/matt-le-tissier-ive-never-seen-anything-like-it-its-unbelievable-how-many-sports-players-are-keeling-over/

    Mein Kamp Karen wants camps to look after and care for and luv the unvexxed.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-democrat-rep-calls-quarantine-observe-those-refusing-vaccines

    NO MAN MAY WORK AT HERSHEY’S TO MAKE GREAT AMERUCAN CHOCOLATE BARS WITHOUT THE MARK OF THE VEXX!!! Also, please promise not to sue them on your way out… they’ll give you a severance package if you promise!
    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/hershey-tells-unvaccinated-employees-hit-highway

    Switzerland to drop all restrictions except for the most useless one – masks.
    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/switzerland-expected-to-lift-covid-restrictions-vaccine-passports/

  15. Cookie says: “Isn’t it funny how the original spread of Wuhan virus seemed to follow a script.”

    The beginning of the Mass Covid Psychosis PsyOps.

    About Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019: Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

    Pause…

    On Dec. 31, 2019, Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization of pneumonia cases in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China, with an unknown cause. What started as a mystery disease was first referred to as 2019-nCoV and then named COVID-19.

    On January 20, 2020, The National Institutes of Health is working on a vaccine against the new virus that has infected hundreds and killed four in Asia. A team of scientists in Texas, New York and China are also at work on a vaccine, according to Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine scientist at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. It is “remarkable” that scientists are able to start developing a vaccine for a virus that was identified less than a month ago, he said. He credited Chinese researchers, who quickly sequenced and published the virus’s genome. “With SARS, it took almost a year to be able to identify and map the full genetic code,” he said. “Now we’re doing this in just a few weeks.”

    On 22 Jan 2020, A DEADLY new virus which has killed six people in China is one of the “newest and biggest global health threats“, an expert has warned. Scientists are frantically working on a vaccine to stop the spread of Wuhan coronavirus – but say it could be more than a year before it’s available.

    On 24 January 2020, He arrived at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport – but not directly from Wuhan – on January 15, the day before screening was in place, and before he developed symptoms. But he reportedly recognized his own symptoms – which typically include *cough, fever and runny nose* – after seeing online coverage of the virus.

    https://magaville.wordpress.com/all-the-links-i-have-ever-posted-on-the-covid-scam/

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