The following is an email reply I made to a friend Wednesday night, the night of the ‘Invasion of The Ukrainian Body Snatchers’. This friend, knowing of my studies of the Slavic nations, asked me what I could make of the situation. My reply is then followed by my further observations of today, Thursday. It’s a little choppy, there hasn’t been time to smooth the wording. It’s sort of a ‘stream of unconsciousness’. But this post, both parts, reflects my thoughts as this thing unfolds in real time.
Editor’s note: Except for fixing the links, there is no editing; this is the actual email.
Well, I think once again, Vlad the Fox (who knows many things) has outwitted Slow Joe, the Hedgehog (who knows only one thing; Russia!) . Vlad came un-invited to the All-Ukraine coming-out party hosted by NATO. But Vlad studiously avoided the large buffet. Instead, he went straight to the dessert table, where he is casually (and slowly) nibbling away, chewing very slowly, while talking and laughing with his eastern Ukrainian friends from Donetsk and Lukansk who also came to the party. Those friends no longer consider themselves to be ‘only’ Ukrainians. They are also fully Russian, Da? Vlad obviously feels right at home here, and why not? He too is fully Russian, Da!
There’s a whole story untold here, but the bottom line is this- Vlad is a calm, cool and collected chess player who refuses to get excited or mad. He is obviously working according to a plan that he has confidence in. Chess grand-masters think about every move, well in advance. I have seen nothing that makes me doubt Vlad’s skill or will. And nothing from Emperor Joe that assures me the West has a bright future.
And truth be told, this Western waning may simply be another outgrowth of the badly-done but evidently ‘accepted’ Fatima Consecration. You know, whereby the faithful don’t get the whole enchilada of blessings, but neither do we get the whole foretold chastisement. This slowly unfolding dismemberment of NATO and the Empire may actually be the least violent means of the prophesied Russian ascendancy. Which is still plainly in play.
The wild card, in my mind, is China and Xi, as I think they will now move to eliminate (literally) the Indians, their closest true demographic and numerical nuclear foe. Their foes, the Paki’s, are the perfect foil for this tension, and China is firmly wedded to Pakistan. After all, it was at Lop Nor (in China) that the Paki’s got to test their first (and subsequent) nukes.
And India? It has NO alliances, with us or Russia. No one will come to their aid. The outsourced Help Desk will be closed. Permanento. And once the world sees the savagery that ensues in this theatre, there will be no one that wants to help Taiwan. Or South Korea, or Japan, or the Philippines, or………. (you get the idea). No one in East Asia wants to see the sequel of ‘Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Bombay’, especially at a theatre near them.
Why would China do this? Well, why risk damaging the jewels (Taiwan and the semi-conductor gold mine, etc.) when you can burn down a distant poor neighborhood that no one prizes nor wants to risk life and limb to save? The double benefit, for China, will be a possible decimation (in the true sense) of the Muslim world. No one will notice the disappearance of the Uighurs, I’ll bet. Or the Paki’s who died for Allah.
The reviews of this horror flick will be great reading for NBA die-hards.
So, The Bear gets the West, rather peaceably, and The Dragon gets the East, rather un-peaceably. Everyone (but the Empire) gets what they want . Gas and blood flow freely. No tariffs now.
And there are lessons here. But these lessons are no longer a required part of the current-day Imperial Foreign Service curriculum. The specific lesson we need to focus on is the, the Treaty of Rapallo, in 1922. This treaty is what laid the actual foundation for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 that pre-planned the dismembering of Poland between the two wolves that flanked it. The current Sino-Soviet duet seems like a mirror image of those inter-war years.
I just finished an excellent book on the secret provisions of this Treaty of Rapallo (1922) and the lesson seems clear- Russia is now in the midst of another Faustian bargain, this time with China. My guess is Vlad has learned from Uncle Joe’s mistake of thinking he would be able to beat Hitler to the punch. Vlad learns from other people’s mistakes, which is why he makes so few. And I still don’t think he has mis-read the will of the West. His real concern is actually China. But for now, all is well in the Great Halls of the East.
Anyway, I will write something soon, but here’s my guess: we will have Cold War II, to partially satisfy the War Hawks (and their industrial allies), and Vlad will continue to nibble. By the way, click this link for a look at something 99.9999% of people are unaware of; the existence of the People’s Republic of Trans-Dnistria. This dagger of land on the western edge of Ukraine is the location of the actual beginnings of the dismemberment of Ukraine in 1990. After Vlad’s Crimean move in 2014, the head of Transnistria requested to join the Russian Federation. Hahahahah!!! So, Ukraine is almost totally surrounded by Russian break-away operatives (including Belarus). Vlad eats slowly so as to avoid indigestion. But he doesn’t stop eating. Ever.
Yes, I know, too much info!!!
We’ll have plenty to talk about when I visit after Easter. And maybe even more, depending on upcoming events (may they be few). Stay safe till then!
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGHTS
Well, that’s where I was at late last night. Now it is Thursday noon, and nothing has changed, in my tiny mind. Vlad is still at the Ukrainian NATO-Anticipation fest, but the mood of the Kievan hosts has noticeably soured. Vlad won’t leave on his own, and no one from NATO is coming to oust him.
The Press, of course, is screaming their heads off. But they’ve been doing that for months now, and I’ll bet that a huge number of little people (who have tuned out the MSM and Fox as well) aren’t even aware of what may or may not be happening halfway around the world. Nor do they care.
But some still do. And they always ask the question that betrays their ignorance of Mankind’s actual history. And their question is always ‘What does Putin really want?”
Well, the answer to that, to an experienced criminal mind, is very easy. In one easy word, as Mel would say, the answer is always PAYBACK. As in vengeance.
But ‘vengeance is Mine’, sayeth The Lord. And He means it. I have to admit I am a heavy sinner in this department of spiritual deportment. As most of us are, if we are honest once a day.
What’s Vlad want payback for? Here’s where people’s eyes glaze over as you recount the nations that have tried to encircle, betray and enslave Russia. Starting with the Swedes (who actually accomplished it first, through the Rurikid Dynasty). And then again in the early 1200’s, but successfully resisted by ‘Saint’ Alexander Nevsky. To Russia’s own detriment as they enlisted in the Khan’s Horde.
The litany rolls on. Poland, Lithuania, Prussia, France, England, Austria, Germany, and of course, us. Notice, this litany that Vlad repeats endlessly, concerns enemies that lie (in all senses) in the West. And my list above is not nearly exhaustive.
But what about the Mongol Horde? And their Turkic cousins? Why doesn’t Vlad ever mention them? Well, there’s a reason, and we’ll get to that. And Vlad will, too, eventually. But all of the historic truths he speaks ignore Russia’s own errors, the chief one being her chauvinistic outlook on who should rule the world. That is to say, the same chauvinism her tormentors exhibited over the centuries.
Anyway, Vlad could be forgiven if he sensed the current maneuverings as simply another Western attempt to destroy his people. But who are ‘his’ people? That’s what’s being decided right now. And since every nation is built on a culture, and every culture reflect its cult, this is actually a religious war. As most are.
So, ultimately, what Vlad wants is homage and hegemony. Everywhere. This fact will lead to the unwinding of Russia’s current Faustian bargain, with the Devils of the East. But that’s not today’s story. Today, we are looking West, and wondering what Vlad sees through his field glasses. And if I was going to try and predict what he will do, (and I will), here’s what I expect.
First of all, as I have said, Vlad is patient. He knows his greatest asset is the feckless nature of the modern West. The clock is in his favor. No need to grab the buffet carcass and run. Just keep munching at the dessert bar. He knows that unless he crosses the western borders of Ukraine, NATO will not appear on his radar. All Vlad must do is neuter the air and naval forces of Ukraine. And it appears he is doing just that, as I write.
Then, taking a favorite page from the Empire’s playbook, declare a No-Fly zone over Ukraine. Shoot down ANY aircraft that penetrate it. All the civilian airlines have already halted all flights over Ukraine. Anything else is presumably military.
Same thing with the scanty remains of the Ukraine Navy in the Black Sea. And take the nuclear powerplant at Chernobyl, as it is just a few miles from those other Russians in Belarus. No need to let that genie out of the bottle again, for any false-flag reason. Same thing with the Russian pipelines to Europe that cross Ukraine. Guard the pumping stations, for sure. And sever all rail links to the west. Let’s see how many freedom convoys the EU sends to help, hahahah! In short, act like Trudeau.
Almost all of this can be accomplished by air. With missiles, generally. Put Ukraine under the equivalent of the quarantine as Kennedy did to Cuba in 1962 (before blinking, and removing our missiles from Turkey, which sparked that whole confrontation). If I were Vlad (and be glad I’m not!), I would also destroy every airfield in western Ukraine
At that point there is no need to advance regular ground troops much beyond the western borders of the ‘republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk. Who now have some ‘international’ recognition, and who invited Vlad in earlier this week. How nice of them to invite him to the party!
I wonder if any of the idiots who thought up this NATO-Ukraine engagement party are having any second thoughts now. Actually, they aren’t. They are counting on Vlad taking these steps. They know Vlad is rational. They only want Cold War II, not Hot War III, which they surely must know they (and many others) would lose if Vlad gets mad.
Their real mistake lies just over the time horizon that they so shortsightedly see. What do I mean? Simple. This isn’t really about Ukraine. It’s about the playoffs. They think there will be another round before the finals. But the West has been eliminated as a serious contender. Covid took care of that. Only Russia and China remain.
Next, after the initial missile waves lets up, comes payback for the continental NATO weasels. I’m sure someone will damage the NordStream II pipeline venture sidelined by the Krauts. Well, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out who suffers from that. All Vlad has to do is declare that no belligerents will receive anymore natural gas, or even crude. Moscow will be the warmest city in Europe. Let’s see whose house of cards collapses now.
Remember, Vlad has the largest pile of cash and gold (outside of China) and the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world. And it is the number one or two top producers of gold, diamonds, uranium, coal, wheat. And a big producer of scores of other mineral wealth (copper, aluminum, etc).
So, Vlad doesn’t have to do any of that economic blackmail stuff (although he could, quite successfully). Why? Because those witless Europeans are quite aware of the contorted position they are now in. They have already surrendered, all though a few don’t seem to be aware of this fact. They still mouth Imperial slogans, but the vast majority of them are winking at each other as they repeat Joe’s empty words. Regardless of what anybody says, only actions speak now. And Vlad has acted.
So, no matter what anyone in the West says, Russia will still be able to sell all her goods to others, especially China, the largest consumer of all these same things. And Russians have already been numbed to the chanting of ‘sanctions’ from the West. The common Russian hasn’t been able to buy western products for years. They no longer care. Why? They don’t watch CNN. By volume, that’s America’s largest export. And guess what? My internet link to RT (Russia Today) is now dead. But CNN still works, here in the Empire. Amazing coincidence, eh?
Bottom line, the West has nothing Russia needs. Especially weapons. Russia is an exporter of that product line, actually. And in fact, Ukraine is now the largest importer of them now. Duty-free, and free delivery to boot.
What to do now? Do what we forgot to do for the last hundred years. Pray for our enemies, instead of demonizing them. Why? Because now they ARE demons. OUR demons. We should have listened to The Beautiful Lady. But her Help Desk is still open. And she takes all calls personally. With no outsourced accent.
Got any Holy Water?