Statistics

Case Study Of A Coronadoom Panic: How It Starts, Builds & How It Ends

Taiwan has been an excellent source of Science Shield™ pictures. We’ve posted others before. Here’s a new one from a month or so back.

The Science Shield 8000™! When you need to pretend Science is happening. Find one wherever Experts are sold.

To be fair, I want to open up the comments to any and all Experts and Scientists. Go ahead and prove to us exactly how this Science Shield™ blocks the coronadoom. If any can successfully do that, I will give them one hundred American dollars cash. Watch this space!

Besides fun, Taiwan also affords us a wonderful insight into how panics happen, how they build, and how they resolve.

The country was praised by many at first for keeping the coronadoom contained. They were lucky in this in being an island, requiring all incoming travelers to have negative tests, quarantines, and so on. On an island where the airports and shipping can be assiduously watched, this watchfulness is easy. It is, of course, impossible in countries like the USA.

The praise stopped around this time last year. The net leaked, and there was a minor blip up in infections, and also some attributed deaths (on the order of flu in ordinary years). The government quickly locked everything down: restaurants shuttered, schools closed, IDs checked everywhere for everything, the whole litany. Mask mandates naturally.

This, as we have learned from looking at other data, is useless to stop the spread of a respiratory virus. But—and this is key—it was an excellent anti-inducement to venturing out to be tested. Since this was the first time the virus was noticed on the island, most people stayed home and shivered and cried “Save me!” to the government. (We followed all this in the old coronadoom weekly updates.)

In the lockdowns, testing suffered, and this quashed headlines of new “cases”. You can’t have a new “case” without a test. These non-“cases” being non-reported, the public and government calmed down.

All was well, things opened up a bit, but the mandates were kept. Until about a month ago, when the virus was again noticed.

Here, then, is the plot of attributed coronadoom deaths for Taiwan for all time through Saturday, 30 April, recalling the country has about 23.5 million souls:

Study this graph before reading on. Nothing noticeable except for last year’s blip. Not even now. The overall attributed population death rate is under 0.00004. In the States it’s about 0.003, so Taiwan is 100 times smaller. Also recall when contrasting numbers, that flu only returned everywhere in the world only a couple of months ago.

About a month ago, the Ominous Omicron hit. All over Asia and not just Taiwan. China flipped out and now locks 2 to 3 hundred million people down, many imprisoned literally because of their Expert-driven Zero Covid policy. China is crazy.

“How crazy is it?”

This crazy:

Taiwan isn’t that crazy. But it’s crazy enough. For the headlines of a very minor increase in infections (the media there as here wrongly call them “cases”) back in late March caused the public to once again seek out testing. Because the Ominous Omicron is highly infectious, there were more positive tests than the last wave a year ago.

These new tests generated new headlines, once more driving the population into panic. Only this time, because there were almost no deaths, people began to run out to get tested. Here’s a typical headline in the ramp up of the hersteria well after it started on 26 April from Taiwan News.

Do you see where it says that 99.7% of the positive tests are asymptomatic or mild “cases”?

Let me ask that again: Do you see where it says that 99.7% of the positive tests are asymptomatic or mild “cases”?

All right, here is a headline from Saturday, 30 April: “Taiwan ends April with record 15,149 new COVID-19 cases”.

Infections more than doubled in less than a week. Even with a mask mandate (golly).

Buried in the article is this: “Of the new domestic cases reported Saturday, 8,108 were asymptomatic, according to the CECC.” This does not include the mild infections: this is just those people with no symptoms whatsoever who showed up to be tested.

That’s 54% of the infections! Most of the people lining up for tests had no reason to do so other than panic.

This is panic all the way. When 99.7% of the infections require no treatment whatsoever, and when more than half don’t even have symptoms, it can be nothing else but panic.

Here’s the timeline of positive tests:

Notice the lack of correlation with attributed deaths: almost nobody is now dying from the doom. Why fear an infection that will almost certainly cause you no harm, especially if you are not elderly and otherwise ill? Panic and propaganda. The same answer there as here.

Now Taiwan’s CDC, called the CECC, was like ours. Its authorities generated and encouraged fear, hersteria, and panic at the beginning of the coronadoom. Again like our CDC, it kept with these policies until recently. It can’t keep this up forever, because of the tremendous damage government policies have done and are doing. Like here, many jobs were lost, businesses closed, etc., etc., etc.

Again like here, the authorities had a use for juicing the panic initially (for all the many reasons we know), but then the utility of the panic wore off—especially as elections near. This is all terrible, because it is the duty of leaders to be a positive moral force and to provide at least a show of strength to their people. Not in the coronadoom: for most countries, terror and panic was the preferred response. But at least all the oligarchs grew richers.

Anyway, the terror strategy worked beautifully. People indeed panicked. They cherished their fear. They do still, in many cases. And now leaders are having a hard time quelling the terror they instigated. You have to laugh.

Before we come to that, a word about vaccination, which many will credit with the easy spread of the Ominous Omicron. Wait. Hold up. I meant with the decline in deaths.

Here’s where Taiwan’s media does a better job than the American press. First, an article from China Times (a Taiwan paper), which tries to argue that lack of vaccination leads to more positive tests.

The first column shows the number of shots: 0, 1, 2, or 3. The second are the number of positive tests in a certain time period. The third are the number of people across the country in the shot categories. The fourth is the rate per million of positive tests.

It appears those with no shots have higher rates of positive tests. The article asks you to infer the vaccination is working well against the Ominous Omicron.

Problem is, the denominator is wrong. It’s not the number of people in country in each category that’s important: it’s the number of people in that category who show up for testing.

The unvaxxed there are, as here, not loved. They are therefore subject to more propaganda. So it’s very plausible more unvaxxed are showing up to be tested. I haven’t been able to discover any source with testing and vax status.

Here’s another media improvement, best seen in this headline from Focus Taiwan: “Woman to get millions in compensation for vaccine-induced blood clots“. The vax was the AZ, and the lady was in her 40s. You never see that kind of reporting in the USA.

Nor do you see this (indeed, if you try that here, you will be canceled):

They report on possible deaths caused by the vax! Amazing. This is a few weeks old (the “New” is in the week this was reported).

Two things stand out. One, the number of attributed coronadoom deaths total for all time is under 900 in Taiwan. Which makes the possible vax-caused deaths much higher. Two, even though a table (in the article) right above this shows the Pfizer vax being administered even more than the AZ, there are no adverse events reports for Pfizer. Curious.

Anyway, back to how I believe the panic will end. It ended in the States in part when SCOTUS semi-stifled the vax mandate, and in another part when a judge whacked the mask mandate. But it will end mostly because midterm elections are coming.

Only ideologues believe the Putin Price Hike nonsense. People outside the Zoom class and NPR listeners were hurt bad by coronadoom “solutions”, and politicians are trying to run from those “solutions” as fast as their still-semi-panicked populace will let them.

Same thing in Taiwan. Their elections come a bit later than ours. Already opposition candidates are reminding people about the failed “solutions.”

Yet how can the government calm down beast they created? By stopping the testing frenzy.

Officials thus announced “Taiwan to limit PCR tests to those with positive rapid COVID test result”. So you can’t get the official test (the ones reported on above) without first testing positive on a cheap home-based one. Word in the news was that lines were out the door to buy these cheap ones. Even so, this move to make PCR tests harder to get will slow down testing.

Second move was to force a registration and quarantine system (which comes with additional testing) on people who officially test positive and on their close contacts. This didn’t exist before, and began on Sunday, 1 May. There will be much less ardor for testing when the fun goes out of it.

These moves alone can’t end the panic. That requires the help of propagandists. Starting sometime this or next week, I predict, they will have fewer positive tests to report. Here’s the link to check. The decrease in reporting will, with the other moves, diminish the desire to get tested, because people will think the virus is abating.

Which it may or may not. Because the Ominous Omicron is harmless to 99.7% of those it infects, and because it infects so easily, it should still spread with ease. Especially because officials at Taiwan’s CDECC have announced, even at the peak of this panic, relaxation of the island-wide economy crushing restrictions.

As one report yesterday said, “Despite new COVID-19 cases continuing to surge in Taiwan, the country will continue to gradually relax restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the virus”.

No panic lasts forever. These words from Charles Mackay, author of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, are oft-quoted, and for good reason: “People it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

The people who started the panic and drove the herd mad are beginning to recover.

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Categories: Statistics

37 replies »

  1. Briggs writes:

    “It appears those with no shots have higher rates of positive tests. The article asks you to infer the vaccination is working well against the Ominous Omicron.

    “Problem is, the denominator is wrong. It’s not the number of people in country in each category that’s important: it’s the number of people in that category who show up for testing.

    “The unvaxxed there are, as here, not loved. They are therefore subject to more propaganda. So it’s very plausible more unvaxxed are showing up to be tested. I haven’t been able to discover any source with testing and vax status.”

    I’d say that Taiwan, or Taiwanese institutions, like those in the U.S.A. and other countries, are probably requiring the unvexxed to submit to weekly or twice-weekly testing, regardless of whether they are symptomatic. Given that the vexxinated can, and do, get Covid and transmit Covid as easily as the unvexxed, this policy is probably designed to skew the numbers and make it appear that unvexxed are testing positive at a higher rate.

  2. Ann Cherry, exactly right, the unvaxxed are most likely required to be tested, just like they were in Europe. That could easily lead to a testing rate 10 or more times higher among unvaxxed compared to vaxxed.

  3. In the China Times chart, ?? doesn’t mean positive tests; it means “seriously ill” — i.e., “cases” in the medically correct sense of that term.

  4. Sorry, the Chinese doesn’t display properly in comments. The second column says “cumulative number of serious illnesses,” and the fourth column says “number of serious illnesses per million people.” These numbers don’t include mild or asymptomatic positive test results.

  5. Thanks Briggs. I used to have the idea the slants were clever chaps. Probably from watching old Charlie Chan movies. Now I see they’re just as dumb as us. My disillusionment is complete. And I feel fine. Better than ever, actually.

  6. WJT,

    Thanks for the correction. It doesn’t change the problem of the denominator.

  7. Briggs

    ??? The second number is illness (serious – not fake cases) ???

    The PROBLEM is not the denominator but how much Covid Illness is exchanged for Vaccine illness

    Your Minister of Truth

  8. There’s an insurmountable cultural gulf between how Northern Europeans and Asians have generally responded to the Coof. The willingness with which Confucian societies submit to the whims of “experts” is unfathomable to a Western mind. As someone who lived in Taiwan for a few years, has decent Chinese skills, and is married to a Taiwanese wife, my brain goes into screen saver mode when I witness their reaction to a moderate flu bug. I’m still amazed that I’ve been able to keep my wife unvexxed and that she’s left our daughter alone. We’ve all had the Wuflu in the past several months and no one had a problem.

    But the in-laws across the Pacific are still huddling in fear even though they’ve been healthy as can be. Last summer, we posted pictures of our daughter with two classmates, fossil hunting in acres of open space, on a hot, sunny day…all of us unmasked. My sister-in-law’s first reaction to the photos was “No masks? Super frightening!”

    But, as Briggs touched on, the strange thing is that Taiwanese media is not afraid to run stories highlighting the downside of the sundry vexxes. Just last night, my wife said, “did you see this story about Denmark stopping the shots because of adverse effects?” The newsy talk shows bring up stories about vexx injuries too. Yet in the end, it doesn’t keep any of them from reconsidering their hermetically sealed world.

  9. Oh, the other thing that would amaze us here is the amount of detail the Taiwanese Covid trackers are able to collect and publish. Anyone with a positive test, at least in my wife’s hometown of 3 million (Kaohsiung), will have published by the municipal health department an amazingly thorough timeline of their movements in recent days. If they visited the 7-11 on Bo-ai Road from 9:10AM to 9:15AM last Friday, it will be on there. When my wife tested positive last fall (required testing as an unvexxed working in public education) I immediately blocked the phone number for New York’s covid trackers on all our phones. They called incessantly, but never talked to a human.

  10. Two additional reasons for the over-reactions in Taiwan (and Australia, New Zealand) that need to be considered are:

    1 – no one then (and – I think?? – no one now ) understood how this thing transmits – people on ships far from land and other human contact tested positive on return to shore. As a result it was easy to think that shutting down the ports would work. Australiam even more than Taiwan, illustrates just how ill-informed this policy proved to be: major economic and social damage, small postponement in peak deaths credited to the wahun flu.

    2 – both on Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, in Australia, people were initially afraid that this was in fact an attack by China directed at them and (over) reacted accordingly.

  11. Re. the denominators, I live in Taiwan and can confirm that many jobs require weekly testing for the unpecked but not for the pecked.

  12. I have not found any report or paper that explains the isolation of this novel coronavirus and that it causes symptoms known as Covid, so I don’t want to hear about denominators until that simple fact is established.

  13. Also, why did the media stop using the adjective “novel” in early 2020. Maybe it wasn’t.

  14. “WJT, is mandatory testing also mandated for those yet to receive a booster?”

    I’m not sure. Since I’m completely unpecked, I haven’t really paid much attention to “booster” requirements as they don’t affect me.

  15. In the remarkable notice that Briggs posted here, “Mask wearing guidance for dinghy sailing”, the last item states:

    “REMEMBER TO DISPOSE OF YOUR MASKS APPROPRIATELY – Surgical masks take 450 years to degrade if left in the ocean. Cut the ear loop straps and dispose of in a waste bin to protect the environment.”

    What the hell is in surgical masks that requires “450 years” to degrade??

    We know that surgical masks contain micro-plastics, graphene, mold, and toxic bacteria:

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/how-dangerous-are-masks-for-children_4408333.html?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy&rs=SHRCFMNH&amp

    Even so, “450 years” to degrade in the ocean, seems a bit far-fetched. I’d be more concerned about the degradation to my LUNGS, from strapping a mask laced with micro-plastics, graphene, mold and toxic bacteria to my face for hours on end.

    These people are certifiably insane.

  16. Here is today’s column from eugyppius, entitled “Reminder: Respiratory viruses infect huge numbers of people all the time, and nobody cared about this until 2020.”

    Excerpt:

    “Respiratory viruses are extremely pervasive; they’re everywhere and this is totally normal. What isn’t pervasive, is virus testing. We’ve only ever tested widely for a single virus. So much of Corona mythology depends upon presenting data in isolation from what we know about the behaviour of all the other pathogens we’ve lived with for centuries.”

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/reminder-respiratory-viruses-infect?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjk5NjEzOSwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTMyMzU3MTEsIl8iOiJUaitXdiIsImlhdCI6MTY1MTUxNDIzMywiZXhwIjoxNjUxNTE3ODMzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjY4NjIxIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.jxxRa4Uk4_HNg3sU29YhFzhD1ILU8VyvVQPwSVYsEOk&s=r

  17. Still want to point out that the second column (if WJT is correct)) represents real actual illnesses (not positive tests).

    Now I’ll accept that it’s a denominator problem if the Unvexxed could be further delineated into those who refused the Vex and those that were denied the Vex because of preconditions you have something to work with there.

    Without that info, you are left with the trade off between chances of unvexxed illnesses with those of illnesses from the Vexx.

  18. Also, why did the media stop using the adjective “novel” in early 2020. Maybe it wasn’t.

    It is called novel when it is new. No controversy there at all.
    IN a similar way to new strains of influenza. Once they are endemic, they are no longer new.
    Media doesn't need to keep saying "novel' every time they report in the same way that they don't say,
    "the novel SARS2 cov.id.19. Which stands for,
    "Novel Sudden Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome corona virus identification 2019"
    WHO admitted in early 2020 they did not want to name the location of outbreak so as not to stigmatise the Chinese or those local to Wuhan. "Spanish" "Asian", or "Hong kong" flu wasn't given the same PC labelling.
    &nbsp'

    There's also no such thing as a medially correct "case" there is what statisticians want the word case to mean and what Dr's and staff mean when they speak in plain English to each other. Patients = cases.
    diseases don't.
    If a member of the public test themselves that of course is a +ive test. It may be a case case, once that person presents. They may not have presented for covid symptoms or any kind of respiratory symptom. Still, that counts on the stats as a case. The only time it won't is if the stats "guys" have come along and said,
    "Erm, can you tick another box for us? When you tick the box we asked you to tick, please can you also tick as to whether or not they were admitted FOR covid, WITH covid, or tested +ive after admission?….please?….only we've got some arguments to have?…and can you, while you're about it, please ;tick which day and date it?…and then, can you input it and email us so that we don't have to do any work?
     
    A case is just someone in hospital with covid, unless your'e trying to make some argument about numbers in which case you need as many or as few as to make your stats look right!
     
    Then…there's the fact that the staff don't always tick the boxes! The horror!
    I know this is true. Probably not for Covid, having said that, but after a time…and this is why any good study has to do its own sampling in the community.
     
    It was always silly to get het up because the "cases" numbers were high. Testing was and is still in places, absolutely necessary. vicarious panic or projection of panic, is immaterial.
     
    Now your'e picking over the traces re boosters? Haven't some of you older people had a fourth yet?
    Anyone can who wants one here, and everybody's getting on with life…post covid

  19. Italics in the above comment:

    Also, why did the media stop using the adjective “novel” in early 2020. Maybe it wasn’t.
    It is called novel when it is new….]

  20. Paul,
    The faecal aerosol transmission theory of C19 has worked its way past my olfactory bulbs:

    https://theethicalskeptic.com/2021/11/15/chinas-ccp-concealed-sars-cov-2-presence-in-china-as-far-back-as-march-2018/

    It has always boggled my mind how all those damned deer seem to have C19. Droplets suspended in the quaint windless wild or wherever deer happen to be respiring in order to get a viral load large enough to cause a sustainable infection…oh, and the possibility that C19 was really C18, and so certain populations already had pre-existing immunity.

    But someone, crapping in the woods off the short edge of a hunter stand, and so shedding virions eagerly inhaled (or ingested, I suppose, depending on the corn intake the night before) by the eagerly waiting deer population down below…that has more appeal to me for how they seem to pick up C19. Curiously, it might explain the preoccupation of some Public Health officials with the sewage C19 levels and the corresponding waning of appeal for the publics’ toleration of said officials(sewage watch coverage has been minimized up North of late. Not a terribly positive spin to the narrative)

    (note: this is test of the Canada-wide online censorship bill of mis/dis/mal -information aka M.D.M. – info. Add your own letters)

  21. ?????? => google translate simplified Chinese
    “The cumulative number of moderate and severe cases” (second column heading)

    ???????? =
    “severe cases per million” (fourth column heading)

    Column with number 41 has Chinese text under the number:
    ??1??????? =
    “Another case of under-the-hood egg disease”

    Curiouser and curiouser…the centred title under the graphic:
    ???????????? =
    “Lin’s Bizhu division new crown ruffian discussion group”

    ????/?????????????/??? = ( the bottom left text just above centred title)
    “Consultation source/command center, tabulation by the Department of Household Affairs, Ministry of the Interior/Undergraduate”

    Weird

  22. Based in Taiwan (since 1968) Elsevier Published: Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, is the main academic-publication-trellis upon which ALL Medical and Science careers on Taiwan Island are supported. As such, it holds tremendous sway over broad medical, health care and governmental policy fields. It is the SINGULAR English language peer-reviewed (domestically edited) bedrock upon which Taiwanese Medical Expert credentials (and thus careers) depend:.

    https://journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-microbiology-immunology-and-infection
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-microbiology-immunology-and-infection/about/aims-and-scope
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-microbiology-immunology-and-infection/about/editorial-board
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-microbiology-immunology-and-infection/about/announcements

    My pet theory – is that Taiwan’s ongoing OVERKILL response to the DEMIC was entirely crafted and driven by these MANDARIN LEADERSHIP EXPERTS. (Pictured above – seated in cluster formation behind Plastic/Fomite Desk Dividers).

  23. That boat looks like a toppa’, used to sail those. What do masks have to do with sailing? Those are spoof pictures
    The more Vaccine shots the less seriously ill per million, according to those numbers in that table, no?
     
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~tumbleweed~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    JH could translate for us?
    What’s with the egg references? Is it a game to hide them so people can find them?
    There was one in the Kung fu post years ago about the FBI fitness tests where you posted a suggestive photo at the top? I don’t want to spoil the fun, but…Brian Buleren used to pop up too…hmm. Ever get the feeling you’re being hustled?

  24. In number 4 he’s doing the capsize drill and the mask, if you wanted to wear such a thing in the boat, would make absolutely no difference.
    If you can swim adequately, which is a [re=requisite for manning such a boat, you don’t hold onto your mask or worry about it at all! Just climb onto the boat, stand on the centre keel to force the boat up the right way and hold onto the ropes to make it turn upright. He should be able to do it and breathe at the same time! Since he’s not a dolphin, more’s the pity, he wouldn’t be able to breathe if he went underwater by accident, with or without a mask. Am I missing something? It’s double bluff Propaganda! Spoof safety info’

  25. …and he shouldn’t be standing up, that’s why he fell in!
    Those boats are designed to sit on the edge and lean right out to balance the boat as the sail picks up the wind
    So it’s just a spoof!

  26. Last time I checked:
    1/3 people have no symptoms at all. THAT is asymptomatic.
    Thos classed as “mild” who know who they are and have HAD this disease, it simply means they didn’t require hospital. So Briggs, you are hiding a multitude int the “mid” bracket. The key are those who do not have any symptoms at all….hence testing….which you object to in principle, it seems.
     
    Many people who had a “mild” case have had long term effects and the “mild” case took months to enable them to function properly.

    To the point, the asymptomatic cases are the factor which made the disease harder to control. THAT plus the fact that the highly infectious phase is prior to onset of symptoms, regardless.
     
    It seems your point is arguing an old point about virulence and omicron
    The mortality rate for covid has been known for. along time, so announcing it now seems a bit old

  27. Briggs
    Not for those who suffer it.
    “long covid” was a common term adopted for post viral syndrome after covid.
    Yet again, there is nothing controversial OR political, about post viral syndrome but you appear to argue that this is the case.
     
    The other side of the coin are those who never knew about post viral syndrome and think it’s unique to covid. PVS is a common feature with covid, possibly, unsurprisingly, as a feature of the disease, and / OR as a result of the numbers of new infections since 2020 all at once, appearing to be more prevalent in records and in clinics, as well as anecdotally
     
    So the lay person is is unknowing , wether skeptical or not. Post viral syndrome is not new
     
    vague symptoms and ubiquitous symptoms are a common feature of everyday diagnosis. All manner of disorders, disease and syndromes produce vague symptoms. That’s where experience comes in. Subtle patterns are apparent along with knowing a person’s character, all add into the mix which is a soft science an an art, hence the word “practice”.
     
    For future reference and prevision of the retort. The term syndrome is used for a collection of symptoms
    AND sometimes signs, (objective markers) which are labeled by a preceding identifying word. “x” syndrome.
     
    So it would be better for media AND controvert skeptics alike to overt stir yet more rumour, fear, stigma, or fuss about something to which they never gave a second thought until a year ago. “Long covid Awareness” is not desirable. Thos who suffer are already “aware”

  28. “Avert” (sorry)
    Can we do butterflies? Or perfume?
    bit fed up with covid now…

  29. Random thoughts here.
    People without a spiritual anchor are filled with fear over the possibility of sickness and/or death. It makes sense, you are going to undergo an unpleasant experience, possibly die, and go into a hole. This should be in complete contrast to the outlook of Christian believers who put their lives in God’s hands completely and see heaven as their eternal home with God. Non-believers are materialists.
    There is a new enzyme just discovered that eats plastic, and it is now thought will consume billions of tons of plastic in landfills. A great discovery, made in America. Bye-bye masks and water bottles.
    Deep lung studies are finding microplastics in lungs, no doubt from wearing China-made paper masks.
    I think the reason for testing of non-vaxxed is as you say here, to “prove” the unvaxxed have Covid at higher levels.
    It is shocking, how easily manipulated people are. The technically smartest people I personally know have all bought into the narrative, and furthermore, have distanced themselves from us for not doing so. Mass formation is a thing.

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