Statistics

Global Warming To Create Cold Which Will Cause Mass Extinctions: Experts’ Model

Reporter Leslie Stahl once had herself filmed walking by a power plant’s smokestack. She said, “There could be anything coming out of there.” Unless “we” acted.

She asked her ardent followers to infer from that deep evidence that anything meant something bad. She jumped from could to does, and wanted us to, too.

We saw the same reasoning grip the political class pretty much the world over during the coronadoom panic. Experts like Nassim Taleb reasoned that anything could happen during the pandemic, therefore, he and they asked us to infer, something bad, far worse than we’ve see, would. Unless “we” acted.

Now we see this thinking again in the peer-reviewed paper “Avoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming” in Science by Justin Penn and Curtis Deutsch, which begins with this sentence: “Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity.”

The title, as is now clear to you, shows the authors moved from unknown severity definite mass extinctions.

Saying a thing might happen gives no information about the thing other than it is not impossible. That, and nothing more. You cannot move from might to likely or certainly. You can’t even infer unlikely. You are left in near total ignorance.

But to those of a precautionary mindset, might when applied to imagined terrors always implies damned certain. Unless “we” act.

It’s good to keep this in mind as we emerge from the coronadoom panic, because the same people are still in charge, and precautionary habits aren’t quelled easily. The most obvious regime-supported panic shift, given efforts at painting Putin as Hitler revivified are failing, is global warming.

Hence we see papers like ours today. Before we come to it, let’s recall all models only say what they are told to say.

Our authors have created a model.

Now a lot of models take “data” and relate that data to measures using some kind of physio-probability model. For instance, we can collect a bunch of times species survived, and times when they didn’t, and we can correlate those observations to measured changes in the weather. (That correlation becomes causation when wee p-values are seen. Magic does this.)

This model cannot be overly empirical, though, because there have been zero species killed by “climate change” recently, and none ever by man-caused slight increases in average temperature. Sure, man has aided in wiping out species in the past, but it wasn’t because of small shifts in the weather.

On the other hand, changing weather, they say, axed the dinosaurs. So weather-caused extinctions can happen (if “they” are right). But, and it’s a big but, those beasties died from the cold, Experts say. I’m open to correction, but of the “big 5” extinctions, when weather was a causal factor, it was an icy death grip. Not a hot one.

As we have lamented before, papers are increasingly hiding details in “supplementary” material. Same here. The paper resembles journalism; the meat is in the parts people won’t read. So the quotes below come mostly from the Supplement.

Our authors start with a bunch of climate models (which are all by the same core set of Experts, so the multiple models provides a false sense of Diversity). Then they derive a metric called the “Metabolic Index” (MI).

The MI is a formula using oxygen and things like the sure-to-be-overcertain species-level “hypoxia tolerance” (one number per species). Then per species median body BMI, metabolic rest rates, and so on. They have several plug-in numbers for species across “five phyla (Annelida, Arthropoda, Chordata, Cnidaria, Mollusca)”. Finally, this MI formula is tied to temperature.

Not surprising to us, but what should be surprising to the fearful, is that our authors spend a great deal of time on “cold tolerance limits” of species. Because it’s cold that limits, not so much heat.

The model is an immense tangle of items: oxygen levels, how cold tolerance correlates to everything, “extinction thresholds” derived “Using Permian fossil data and simulations”—simulations are models, and all models etc.; wee p-values make an appearance—which in the end say that increasing heat will cause a mass extinction.

The model says a global average of 5 C increase will kill off somewhere between 1% and 20% of all species, with an emphasis on the higher levels.

Even bolder, by 2300—long after we’ve all met our final reward—the model says more than 60% of species will be whacked. By it becoming too cold because of global warming. Or something.

It’ll be a problem to verify this model, not only because we’ll all be dead when the observations come round. But we don’t even know how many species there are, so it will be difficult to count percent loss.

Our authors also never adequately explain how if it is going to heat up because of CO2, and thus plants increase everywhere, and thus oxygen increases everywhere, how oxygen is ackshually going to decrease. Unless “we” act.

The whole thing is a mess, but a very scientific mess. So please join me in saying All models only say what they are told to say.

Buy my new book and learn to argue against the regime: Everything You Believe Is Wrong.

Subscribe or donate to support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal click here; Or go to PayPal directly. For Zelle, use my email.

Categories: Statistics

9 replies »

  1. I’ve always subscribed to the dictum “If it happens, it’s possible”.

  2. ”Global Warming To Create Cold Which Will Cause Mass Extinctions”

    Briggs, that’s great news. The new Ice Age will be invigorating. Warm-weather bugs will get the deep freeze. Skiing, snowshoeing, caribou hunting, ice palace building, snow man making, ice fishing — cool stuff. I have my skis, snowshoes, and snow tires ready to slide, so bring on the big chill.

  3. Since we are already *in* an ice-age, geologically speaking, the *cold* will be returning. The current interglacial is already on the downswing (max insolation at the high latitudes is slowly decreasing, with or without aerosols, of which water clouds currently dominate). Also, given how close to plant starvation levels the current atmospheric carbon dioxide level is, why should we *not* be trying to keep the levels closer to plant optimums if we can and to the extent we can. All of that is compounded by, to me, the *major* misunderstanding how electromagnetic radiation (light) is converted from internal kinetic energy (heat) and back.

  4. Catastrophism sells and always has when the Ice Age was upon us it was
    flash frozen mammoths and particulate pollution albedo. The lethal combination
    of low intellect and consciousness has killed and maimed people for millennia.
    What’s more amazing is the rapid emergence of the sect of castrates dominating
    the headlines today now under the guise of medical necessity. It’s all about the science;
    if they can bring this back they can do anything. Global warming is nothing more than
    a long term project of civilizational level castration.

    Ritual of castration eventually led to Christianity
    See more at https://english.pravda.ru/news/society/59594-n/

    13 Reasons Cultures Throughout History Brutally Castrated People
    https://factsandhistory.com/13-reasons-cultures-throughout-history-brutally-castrated-people/

  5. There have been other significant extinction events in geologic history. Just a few:

    The Lutetian-Bartonian event (41 mya)

    The Bartonian-Priabonian event (37 mya)

    The Late Priabonian event (35 mya)

    The Terminal Eocene event [Grand Coupure] (33.5 mya)

    The Late Rupelian event (30.5 mya)

    Pliocene Extinction Event (3.0-2.5 mya)

    All these extinction events were associated with reductions in global temperature, thinning CO2, declining rainfall, and falling sea levels. From ~32 mya through 30 mya 60% of mammalian species disappeared, the largest sea-level drop in Tertiary history occurred, and full continental glaciation on Antarctica began. During the Pliocene event one-third of marine mammal species went extinct. We Ice Agers have inherited a world with severely diminished bio-diversity.

    Life likes warmth. It does not like cold. The warmunista fraudsters have that exactly wrong.

  6. what planet are these people on?? We have these same people NZ?? from Trevor.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.