Statistics

Canada’s Science Coronadoom Model Discovers Canada’s Science Saved 800 Thousand Lives

Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say.

Here it is, right from the hole of Theresa Tam (you recall it was that Canadian official’s bright idea to forgo sexual relations and replace them with a glory hole during the panic):

The peer-reviewed paper this frighteningly person references is “Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?“, by Nicholas H Ogden, old Glory Hole herself, and a bunch of others, in Healthcare-Associated Infections & Antimicrobial Resistance.

Before we get to the paper, let’s look at GH’s claim: lockdocks and masks and the like, which she called “adhering to public health measures”, prevented 800 thousand deaths.

Canada has 38 million trapped souls. As of this date (Sunday), it is reported Canada classified 43,154 deaths as caused by the coronadoom.

Without government beneficence, a model said there would be about 19 times more deaths.

Or, in other words, 2.2% of all Canadians would have crapped out due to the doom, instead of the 0.11% who did.

Florida did not have lockdowns nor masks mandates, beyond the period of about two weeks, and as of this date had 78,047 deaths put down to the doom. Like Canada, they had vaccinations, but they weren’t by the point of gun like in Canada. Florida has 21.22 million happy souls.

That makes a doom death rate 0.37%.

Now this is about triple Canada’s rate. So Canada did better. But Floridians are a lot older than Canadians: Florida has about 18% 65+ and Canada about 11%. And the doom really whacked the aged. (This is all hand-wavy because of the difficulties in counting, keeping track of who was alive at the beginning of 2020 of what age and so on. But we don’t need to become any more exact than this here.)

So, after considering age, and vax availability, Florida and Canada aren’t that different in doom death rates. One had, and still has, Expert-driven madness of lockdowns, masks, fines, arrests, mandatory-to-travel vaccination, panicked idiocies of every kind. And one had, and still has, sanity.

There are many more comparisons we could have made besides Florida, other localities which did not have panicked populations, egotistical Experts and ravening rulers. And which did not have anything even approaching, or even had whispering hints of, what GH’s model predicted they should have had by relying on commonsense.

Before we peek at the model, note that there is no problem putting probabilities to counterfactuals, which is what GH’s model does. (An act which instantly disproves the so-called frequentist interpretation of probability and statistics. Let that pass.)

Their Method (my emphasis):

The study used an agent-based model of a representative 100,000 individuals of the Canadian population. The model was modified to simulate the epidemic in Canada up to the time of writing (April 2022). The model incorporated simulation of the implementation and lifting of the PH measures used (Figure 1)…Many parameter values were obtained from the literature, but some were obtained by fitting the model to surveillance and hospitalization data…[and it goes on like this for some time]

An agent-based model is like a computer game where the NPCs are give greater complexity, with parameters galore, all of which require specifying. And all of which describe interactions the modeler decides in advance. Because all models only say what they are told to say.

This is just like we saw last week. This is a model of a model of a model of who knows how many more models used to justify the main model. And no indication whatsoever that the substantial uncertainty of each model in the web of models is carried over into the next model downstream (this is like the multiplying uncertainties example we did before). In short, the entire contraption is hideously over-certain.

We’d be sure of that just by looking at the model claims. But we can be sure, too, by looking at the modeling steps.

Rather, Experts trusting other Experts steps, because each Expert involved assumes all the others are doing the right thing.

All to produce The Science the government uses to justifies its atrocious actions. From now, the government, of which GH is part, will say “The Science proves we made the best decisions.” A judgement which cannot be questioned, because it is Science.

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Categories: Statistics

20 replies »

  1. Waiting for Glory Hole’s next peer-reviewed model showing how Canadian glory holes can prevent the spread of monkey pox…

  2. “One had, and still has, Expert-driven madness of lockdowns, masks, fines, arrests, mandatory-to-travel vaccination, panicked idiocies of every kind.”

    Technically, the injection travel-mandate was rescinded about a month ago. Purebloods are no longer held hostage. However, they must still quarantine for two weeks when entering the country, which is much the same thing as prohibiting them from leaving.

  3. As an added bonus (paywalled):

    https://www.blacklocks.ca/hero-medallion-for-everyone/

    “The Public Health Agency faulted in audits for Covid mismanagement is awarding a pandemic hero’s medallion to every single employee. Medal presentations include a velvet box to commemorate “their commitments towards pandemic relief efforts” that left 43,000 Canadians dead: ‘It is a special Covid-19 coin in a velvet presentation box.’”

    I wonder if the covid coin shows a mask over two crossed syringes.

  4. I’ll add on to what the John’s had to say. I am Canadian (dual citizen). That is what allows me to even be allowed into Canada. As a pureblood I am required to quarantine for two weeks but the positive test showing I’ve had the doom within the past six months allows me only to avoid pre-arrival testing. Does not, according to the Canadian govt websites, get me out of quarantine. So to visit my parents, who live just across the border, I have to deal with that.

  5. They’re desperate to have us think they’re wise and kind saviors, rather than deluded and vicious monsters who mass-murdered millions.

  6. Wondering what the difference is between a computer “model” and a computer “simulation”. In my mind a computer “model” is something that tests a (perhaps purely theoretic) hypothetical, whereas a computer “simulation” replicates/investigates an established physical process that already has well understood, well known and repeatable outcomes. Am I wrong in this distinction?

  7. Eh, the govt-worshipping cud chewers will lap this report up like they do with all official propaganda.

    I’ve been looking at the IATA guidelines and it looks like quite a few countries have lifted their forced injection restrictions.

    Is that opening up real or is it a ruse so they can make an example of uninjecteds on arrival?

    Can’t be too paranoid these days.

  8. Robin,

    Not one whit of difference. One word seeks to escape responsibility, the other doesn’t.

  9. John B: indeed

    Heresolong: I’m a Canadian national living in the US. That means if I enter Canada I have to quarantine for two weeks, but I also cannot then re-enter the US. Result: haven’t seen my family for almost 3 years.

  10. Here’s my model:

    Sweden – No STASSI – Voluntary Compliance With Health Recommendations – Deaths per Million : 1900

    Canada – Full STASSI – Suspension of Charter Rights – Arrests and fines for any attempt to exercise those rights – – – – Deaths per Million 1100

    (1900-1100)/1100 = .73 … Potential prevention of deaths not considering any other factor

    Current Canadian deaths 42000 … potential savings of 31000 lives

    Canada continues (like the US) to struggle with Covid

    (It’d be interesting to examine excess deaths between Canada and Sweden … Briggs?)

  11. I suppose I should be transparent as well – US Citizen only – lived in Minnesota at a time when adults only needed a driver’s license to cross the border

    I get much of my Canadian information from Viva Frei former Montreal litigator turned You-Tuber. Watched the Freedom Convoy in Ottowa from a number of You Tubers including Frei. Many would walk through the maze of truckers without comment. Watched a number of Trudeau and Trudeau apologists spread the worst kind of disinformation.

    “Cry for the children …”

  12. Here’s a little something for you data hounds…
    with links to UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

    Pfizer Documents & Official Real-World Data prove the COVID Vaccines are already causing Mass Depopulation
    https://expose-news.com/2022/08/07/pfizer-docs-official-data-covid-vaccines-causing-depopulation/

    While you were distracted by Boris resigning the UK Government quietly confirmed COVID Vaccinated Children are 4423% more likely to die of any cause & 13,633% more likely to die of COVID-19 than Unvaccinated Children
    https://expose-news.com/2022/08/06/dsitracted-boris-covid-vaccination-kills-children/

  13. 1 – John B(0) “(1900-1100)/1100 = .73 … Potential prevention of deaths not considering any other factor” I take it you’re in Australia?

    2 – currently writing a report (for The International journal of Magical Remedication) on yesterday’s experiment – Nobel for sure!!!
    We predicted that the temp at noon today at the center of Calgary’s stampede park would be 39C. Then we asked 1,000 NAIT students to have a beer and no nothing that might lead to faster breathing (more CO2 output) for 30 minutes. Today’s actual temp at the center was only 29C. So this intervention, minor as it was, produced a 10 degree reduction in Calgary’s daytme temp today! Cool eh?

  14. I have said this here before, but MN’s lockdowns were based on a model which is demonstrably wrong. The actual deaths after one year were lower than the lowest bound of any 95% confidence intervals. That was around 9,000 deaths, with the best estimate given for the scenario most closely matching the measures taken predicting 29,000 deaths. Actual deaths after one year was about 4,000, and the current total cumulative deaths is about 13,000 (meaning that we still haven’t reached the estimated number of deaths after one year even given more than two years.)

    But of course when it is convenient the model is treated as accurate for its “unmitigated” scenario which predicted about 57,000 deaths a year. Since the model started at April 2020, we’re at two and a third years, meaning an extrapolated 133,000 deaths. Therefore it can be claimed that they “saved” 120,000 lives. This is all rubbish of course since the model is trash to begin with, but that hardly matters when it can be used to prop up the government’s policies.

  15. Paul Murphy

    I was looking at Canada’s 1100 deaths per million
    comparing Sweden’s 1900 deaths per million
    (Only considering STASSI Canadian vs non STASSI Swedish intervention as the reason for difference)
    The Canadian STASSI MIGHT have saved 31000 lives NOT the 800,000 claimed.

    The ONLY way to claim 800,000 is if you found a Ferguson number

  16. If you dig into the excel documents here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

    You can get (by combining the male and female data) that in May 2022 in the UK there were 935 deaths among the unvaccinated and 28186 deaths among the vaccinated, when considering only non-COVID related deaths. That gives us about 96.7% deaths among the vaccinated, but the UK only claims 93.4% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine. (In the 12+ groups, but the excel file doesn’t appear to track deaths in populations younger than that. At least, they don’t appear in the data broken down by age group. If the total numbers do include children aged 0-12 the disparity between the percent vaccinated and the percent of deaths from the vaccinated would be even greater.)

    This indicates that for whatever reason the vaxxed are dying from non-COVID causes at a much higher rate than the unvaxxed. Adjusting for population sizes, it’s about twice as much. Of course the statistics can’t tell us the cause and I’m sure people can cook up explanations like “the vaccines make people feel so much safer that they become reckless in all other areas of their lives, and hence die more.” But this is certainly enough to warrant a full investigation into the safety of these things.

  17. In about March 2020, Italian researchers published a paper stating that Covid spread varied between places due mainly to a number of structural issues including age profile, public health infrastructure, general health of the population, density of living, use of public transport, and number of international tourists during the early stages. Subsequent experience has confirmed that those factors have had more impact on spread in the general population than any restrictions governments have implemented. Governments should have looked after the aged and unwell, given advice to the rest of us, and allowed us to make our own decisions.

  18. Dr.Theresa Tam was weekly repeating the ridiculous covid19 shots-slogan “95% effective” during the 2021 shots drive. Maybe the model was instructed to slavishly conform to official tam algebra: 800,000 x (1.00 all dead – 0.95 undead) = 40,000 dead.

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