Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say.
Here it is, right from the hole of Theresa Tam (you recall it was that Canadian official’s bright idea to forgo sexual relations and replace them with a glory hole during the panic):
1/5 #COVID19 modelling studies show Canadians’ collective action in achieving high vaccine coverage AND adhering to public health measures prevented an estimated up to: 34M cases, 2M hospitalisations & 800K deaths as of Apr 2022 in Canada alone. ?? https://t.co/Z2eZLMfLrd
— Dr. Theresa Tam (@CPHO_Canada) August 4, 2022
The peer-reviewed paper this frighteningly person references is “Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?“, by Nicholas H Ogden, old Glory Hole herself, and a bunch of others, in Healthcare-Associated Infections & Antimicrobial Resistance.
Before we get to the paper, let’s look at GH’s claim: lockdocks and masks and the like, which she called “adhering to public health measures”, prevented 800 thousand deaths.
Canada has 38 million trapped souls. As of this date (Sunday), it is reported Canada classified 43,154 deaths as caused by the coronadoom.
Without government beneficence, a model said there would be about 19 times more deaths.
Or, in other words, 2.2% of all Canadians would have crapped out due to the doom, instead of the 0.11% who did.
Florida did not have lockdowns nor masks mandates, beyond the period of about two weeks, and as of this date had 78,047 deaths put down to the doom. Like Canada, they had vaccinations, but they weren’t by the point of gun like in Canada. Florida has 21.22 million happy souls.
That makes a doom death rate 0.37%.
Now this is about triple Canada’s rate. So Canada did better. But Floridians are a lot older than Canadians: Florida has about 18% 65+ and Canada about 11%. And the doom really whacked the aged. (This is all hand-wavy because of the difficulties in counting, keeping track of who was alive at the beginning of 2020 of what age and so on. But we don’t need to become any more exact than this here.)
So, after considering age, and vax availability, Florida and Canada aren’t that different in doom death rates. One had, and still has, Expert-driven madness of lockdowns, masks, fines, arrests, mandatory-to-travel vaccination, panicked idiocies of every kind. And one had, and still has, sanity.
There are many more comparisons we could have made besides Florida, other localities which did not have panicked populations, egotistical Experts and ravening rulers. And which did not have anything even approaching, or even had whispering hints of, what GH’s model predicted they should have had by relying on commonsense.
Before we peek at the model, note that there is no problem putting probabilities to counterfactuals, which is what GH’s model does. (An act which instantly disproves the so-called frequentist interpretation of probability and statistics. Let that pass.)
Their Method (my emphasis):
The study used an agent-based model of a representative 100,000 individuals of the Canadian population. The model was modified to simulate the epidemic in Canada up to the time of writing (April 2022). The model incorporated simulation of the implementation and lifting of the PH measures used (Figure 1)…Many parameter values were obtained from the literature, but some were obtained by fitting the model to surveillance and hospitalization data…[and it goes on like this for some time]
An agent-based model is like a computer game where the NPCs are give greater complexity, with parameters galore, all of which require specifying. And all of which describe interactions the modeler decides in advance. Because all models only say what they are told to say.
This is just like we saw last week. This is a model of a model of a model of who knows how many more models used to justify the main model. And no indication whatsoever that the substantial uncertainty of each model in the web of models is carried over into the next model downstream (this is like the multiplying uncertainties example we did before). In short, the entire contraption is hideously over-certain.
We’d be sure of that just by looking at the model claims. But we can be sure, too, by looking at the modeling steps.
Rather, Experts trusting other Experts steps, because each Expert involved assumes all the others are doing the right thing.
All to produce The Science the government uses to justifies its atrocious actions. From now, the government, of which GH is part, will say “The Science proves we made the best decisions.” A judgement which cannot be questioned, because it is Science.
Buy my new book and learn to argue against the regime: Everything You Believe Is Wrong.