Briggs

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

Richard S. on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherDecember 3, 2025
I retrieved and read or skimmed Chanda's piece. Her article scarcely referenced actual counts and statistics, but some of the…
Cary D Cotterman on Academic Proposes Mushrooms To Avoid Compulsory Moral BioenhancementDecember 3, 2025
"...tends to create sensations of selflessness..." No thanks. I need to stay focused on myself. Taking care of my own…
Tars Tarkas on Academic Proposes Mushrooms To Avoid Compulsory Moral BioenhancementDecember 3, 2025
If we are to have to put up with reliving the 1970s, I just hope and pray it's complete with…
Danny on Academic Proposes Mushrooms To Avoid Compulsory Moral BioenhancementDecember 3, 2025
What would make me happy is one of those plaid jackets with suede patches on the elbows,
Brian (bulaoren) on Academic Proposes Mushrooms To Avoid Compulsory Moral BioenhancementDecember 3, 2025
Didn't Aldous Huxley say, in Brave New World, "A dramme is better than a damn"? He was referring to a…