Briggs

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

spaceranger on Impossible LSAT Statistics QuestionFebruary 4, 2026
I usually go with "b." or "Asia" on those multiple choice ones.
Cary D Cotterman on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026
Polar bears have existed for at least half a million years, and possibly as long as a million. They have…
Brian (bulaoren) on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026
Dr. Briggs I was afraid I'd hijacked your subject today with my, rather dark, "Walter Lantz" cartoon. Returning to your…
Brian (bulaoren) on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026
While we're on the subject of "Ursus Maritimus"; In 1987, a group of amusement denied boys decided to make an…
hudbwu on Impossible LSAT Statistics QuestionFebruary 3, 2026
> But that’s because the setup is itself weird. It contains the implicit premise that more beliefs equals better survival,…