Briggs

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Chad Jessup on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 5, 2026
I am very happy for any information you post, so whatever suits your time and interests is fine with me.…
Steve on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 5, 2026
The bikini rule -- less is more, but it has to cover all the important stuff. As with human bodies,…
Heresolong on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 5, 2026
Yes.
Jose Miro Julia on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 5, 2026
I'd prefer 3-4 short ones a week.
Ivdas Machabevs on Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?June 4, 2026
Longer, deeper, rarer.