Briggs

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Cary D Cotterman on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026
Interesting, but he could have said everything he had to say in half as many words.
Brian (bulaoren) on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026
Whatever women's intellectual deficiency, they make up for it with raw animal cunning.
Dan MacDougald on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026
Paul Johnson, the great British Historian, in his "History of the American People," the US started down the road to…
Marbles! – William M. Briggs on Marbles!June 24, 2026
[…] I am on the road and am way behind on posts—I have a 3,500 word article on deriving Oughts…
Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 24, 2026
For the past 48 hours, I've been considering a fundamental, structural, problem with marbles; " Marmorism". Some people will accumulate…