Briggs

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

Culture

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…

Statistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…

Culture

Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco

The strangest thing about yesterday's Stand Up For Religious Freedom rally in San Francisco were the "undecided" gentlemen who came dressed with brassieres on their heads. This was curious because…

Book review Philosophy

Top 10 Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List

Today, a classic column. Original appearance 5 June 2011. A list of (non-fiction) books concerning knowledge, and the limits of certainty, about man's relations to other men. The Federalist Papers…

Culture

University’s Non-Discrimination Clause

I've been looking at university positions and typical is this fine print from the University of San Francisco (which used to be Catholic): The University of San Francisco is an…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism IV: (some) Objections to realism—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

Johnson did not answer ...; but talking for victory and determined to be master of the field, he had recourse to the device which Goldsmith imputed to him in the…

Brian (bulaoren) on Class 99: Entropy Part IOctober 31, 2026
During the summer of 1977, I was living with a woman who had a 2 year old daughter. My brother,…
Ultrarightist on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 29, 2026
Briggs, Thanks for the reply and the information. That is unfortunate. Hardbacks aren't made like they used to be, and…
McChuck on Class 99: Entropy Part IOctober 29, 2026
Entropy is described as a numerical rating of chaos. This is more confusing than not, and a poor descriptor, even…
Briggs on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026
Ultrarightist, Apparently not: They use case laminate (also called adhesive case binding or image-wrap) construction: The page block is glued…
Cary Cotterman on Book Update: Launch DateOctober 28, 2026
Most book stores have a rack where employees put new books they've read, accompanied by short, usually hand-written reviews. It's…