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William M. Briggs

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About Briggs
Briggs is an internationally reviled thoughtcriminal, listed as One Of The Top 7 Dangerous Minds by the Hague.
Posted inStatistics

Are Tree Rings Low Pass Temperature Filters?

I don't know the answer to this question: I am not an expert in this area, and I haven't the time or resources to track down the data to discover…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Will The Religious Out-Breed Us All?

Thanks to long-time reader and contributer Ari Schwartz for bringing this to our attention. "It is widely agreed that religion has biological foundations---that belief in the supernatural, obedience to authority…
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Posted inStatistics

The Similarities Between Psychics And Global Warming Activists

The statistical evidence series will continue after the weekend. "I see the letter G." The woman closed her eyes, cocked her head, and looked inwardly. She became grave, tense. "There's...wait…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part III

To clarify: to prove false means to demonstrate a valid argument with a certain conclusion. If a theory/model says an event is merely unlikely---make it as unlikely as you like,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part I

These next posts are in the way of being notes to myself. Logic is the study of the relation between statements. For example, if "All green men are irascible, and…
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Posted inStatistics

Job Wanted: Tall Statistician Seeks Match

I am hoping that among my faithful readers there is somebody that knows somebody who might know a guy who's looking for a statistician. The economy is such that consulting…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody’s Cognitive Toolkit? Edge

Long-time reader Randy Brich reminds us all to head over to Edge.org and read the responses to the 2011 World Question given in the title. It will be worth your…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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