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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Tricky Probability Problem: Chance of Two Sons, One Born on Tuesday?

Thanks to reader Matt Lewis who sent me this link. Martin Gardner, may he rest in peace, gave us a delicious probability problem: Suppose that Mrs Smith has two children,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Statistics as Beauty; Global Warming Miscellany; SATs Biased?; More

Statistics is Beautiful? From reader Yeah, Yeah comes a link to a Wired article which assures us we should "Learn the Language of Data." It's not a pretty language, but…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Do You Really Want: Part II

Class is, thank God, rapidly coming to an end. I am sure we are all grateful. Here's an addendum to yesterday; but only briefly explained. Because of the crush of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson n+1: Measurement & Observables

Just a very crude sketch today: it is not complete by any stretch. Naturally, the students in the summer class don't receive this level of information. Best we can tell,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Somethingorother: Against the P-value

I've lost count of the lesson numbers. The definition of a p-value, here phrased in the incorrectly named "test of difference in means", is: Given the truth of a probability…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Five or Six: Abnormality

Say! What happened to lessons three through four or five? Who knows. This morning, I'm dreadfully rushed, so just a sketch. I do not expect anybody to be convinced this…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Two Again and Again: Logic is Not Opinion

Everybody: thanks for the emails. I do see them. I'll be answering all on the weekend. Would it surprise you to learn that to graduate with a degree in statistics---BS,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Two Redux: More Mysticism

Is it written into sport announcers' contract that they shall speak in nothing but cliché? Since there is always great confusion about why premises about "fairness" or "randomness" are not…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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