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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part IV

Read Part III Question 5 Allard In his last argument Mr. Briggs mentioned the argument of choices, and also the difference between the rights to be happy and the pursuit…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Significance Magazine Announces Its Pro-Abortion Position

Significance Magazine waded into the culture wars by publishing "Deciding abortions by the toss of a coin?" by somebody called Michael A. Lewis. Here (in case the article is pulled)…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part III

Read Part II Question 3 Allard In question 3, the argument presented by Mr. Briggs is that marriage has very little to do with love. It is true that a…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part II

Read Part I. Question 2 Allard In question 2, Mr. Briggs asked the question "why two?" and later says that we can't use the historical fact that marriage is traditionally…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)

Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…
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Posted inStatistics

Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last

Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
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  1. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  2. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  3. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  4. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

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