Statistics – Page 227 – William M. Briggs

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.
Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…
Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…
Cary D Cotterman on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
If the colors of the buttons reflect the same ideological sides they do in current discourse, then disappearing the blue…
Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
As you suggested, I have, so far, read nothing beyond the question. What is not clear to me is...Do the…