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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
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Posted inStatistics

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
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Posted inStatistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inStatistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
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Posted inStatistics

Eating Chocolate Increases Chance Of Nobel Prize, P< 0.05

Yesterday, those noble Nobel fellows, the same committee that honored President Obama---what was it? six, seven days after he assumed office?---, gave this year's Peace Prize to the European Union.…
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Posted inStatistics

The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?

It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…
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Posted inStatistics

Debate Thread: “Where Was This Romney Before?” Always There

Chris Matthews looked as though he saw the men with the nets coming for him, the tingles evidently having traveled from his leg and lodging in his frontal cortex. An…
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  1. Chad W Jessup on On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”November 18, 2025

    I would like to add to your excellent post that there were probably thousands and thousands, if not millions, of…

  2. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 18, 2025

    John, I don't troll. Never have, never would. Google "projection", there's a good fellow. I asked a question, hoping to…

  3. John Pate on On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”November 18, 2025

    If only people still had faith in chicken entrails this would all be unnecessary.

  4. John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 18, 2025

    Eschenbach, you're trolling and Briggs humours you, it is amusing. Somehow Briggs can't shake off the embrace of scientism in…

  5. On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World” – William M. Briggs on Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To CoronavirusNovember 18, 2025

    […] to those who were sober and not grasping, avaricious, or panicked. Those who kept their calm from the beginning…

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