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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inStatistics

Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant? New Polynomial Cointegration Test Paper

I have been asked by a number of people to comment on a new paper that purportedly shows that "statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Precaution: Part II—Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

For all the flurry surrounding precaution---being portrayed as a decisional/procedural instrument to protect human and environmental health from the (potential) dangers of human activities---the history shows that we are dealing…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Precaution: Part I — Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

The can things with the sharp little edges That can cut your fingers when you're not looking The soft little things on the floor that you step on They can…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

How’d Our 2012 Predictions Fare?

We didn't have a such a bad year making picks---here's the list. Make predictions for 2013 here. Yours truly picked Mitt Romney as president. A wishcast not a forecast! A…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!

Time for our annual guessing game about what's to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter…
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Posted inStatistics

The Curious Case Of Professor Richard Parncutt; Or, Death To Deniers And The Pope!

Austrian professor Richard Parncutt1 has called for folks like me to hunted down and, for his pleasure, shoved into gas chambers. I jest not. He really did say that "influential"…
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Posted inStatistics

Shocking New Study: Males Play More Sports Than Non-Males

The peer-reviewed paper "A Sex Difference in the Predisposition for Physical Competition: Males Play Sports Much More than Females Even in the Contemporary U.S" by Robert O. Deaner and a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

In Defense Of Peter Kreeft: A Response To Brafford

Peter Kreeft, a philosopher whose surname does not sound like it is spelled, placed in Touchstone the article "Clashing Symbols: The Loss of Aristotelian Logic & the Social, Moral, &…
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  1. Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…

  2. Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

  3. Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…

  4. John M on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 12, 2026

    1. Substack stops copying social media on their homepage and when they realize Substack is for people who want to…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    It's even worse; "Handicap" is now a forbidden term.

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