Today, a topic that I mean to expand—greatly—in the coming weeks. That theme, as you might has guessed, is too many people are too certain about too many things. Nothing more than […]
The limits of acceptable criminal behavior to combat global warming
I want to ask a favor of my regular readers and of those who occasionally come here to seek an alternate view. You can help me spread the word. Yesterday, we discussed […]
Demonstration of how smoothing causes inflated certainty (and egos?)
I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]
Still a few days left to guess who will win Presidential race
If you haven’t already, please guess who will win the 2008 Presidential race. If you have voted, please do not do so again. We’ve been running the poll for a couple of […]
Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
21 October 2011: Welcome Register fans! Comments on this site are always close after 8 days to control spam. To see more about BEST, read this post. The advice which forms the […]
Predict who will win the US Presidential Race
When you have a chance, please log on to https://www.wmbriggs.com/president.php and guess who will win the election this year. This poll closes on 11:50 pm 14 September 2008. No guessing will take […]
On journalists and Governor Palin
What is the one thing that will anger a journalist faster than anything else? Telling him that he is not important. Last night Governor Sarah Palin said, “I am not going to […]
Wishcasting
Around the 4th of July, here in the States, there is a tendency for official weather forecasts to show a probability of precipitation that is lower than it should be. It rains […]
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