Today, a topic that I mean to expand—greatly—in the coming weeks. That theme, as you might has guessed, is too many people are too certain about too many things. Nothing more than […]

I want to ask a favor of my regular readers and of those who occasionally come here to seek an alternate view. You can help me spread the word. Yesterday, we discussed […]

I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]

If you haven’t already, please guess who will win the 2008 Presidential race. If you have voted, please do not do so again. We’ve been running the poll for a couple of […]

21 October 2011: Welcome Register fans! Comments on this site are always close after 8 days to control spam. To see more about BEST, read this post. The advice which forms the […]

When you have a chance, please log on to https://www.wmbriggs.com/president.php and guess who will win the election this year. This poll closes on 11:50 pm 14 September 2008. No guessing will take […]

What is the one thing that will anger a journalist faster than anything else? Telling him that he is not important. Last night Governor Sarah Palin said, “I am not going to […]

Around the 4th of July, here in the States, there is a tendency for official weather forecasts to show a probability of precipitation that is lower than it should be. It rains […]