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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…
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Posted inStatistics

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    So, "Epsilon Minus" murderers would face the executioner? Maybe you really can fix stupid...

  2. Willis Eschenbach on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    Thanks, Matt. I've been saying this (although far from as eloquently) for a while. If a person is so mentally…

  3. Robert Arvanitis on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the perpetrator…

  4. Joe Blow on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    I would proffer from a species standpoint, REMOVING exceptionally low IQ individuals from the gene pool should be carried out…

  5. Tim O. on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    ALL the concern over IQ and competency is the same smoke screen used as "motive" is commonly used: If the…

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