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Posted inStatistics

Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability

This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…
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Posted inStatistics

The Gold Standard Of Experimentation Exposed As Pyrite

Everybody says the "gold standard" of experimentation, and especially clinical trials, is the randomized controlled trial. A typical view is that "A Randomized Controlled Trial is an experiment or study…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part II

Be sure to read yesterday's post first. One of the screwy consequences of classical statistics is that my odd sample (mixing babies and the patients from the brain cancer ward)…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part I

A standard epidemiological study goes like this: people who have been "exposed" to some thing, say, cell phone radiation, are examined to discover whether or not they have some malady.…
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Posted inStatistics

Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know

This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Everybody Has A Mental Disease: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 5

I am so far Up North that I heard a radio interview with Uncle Ted Nugnet on the best kinds of arrowheads to bring down feral pigs. Internet still only…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Correlation and Causality: Have A Drink, Get Rich

I am down to one brief internet connection daily, found, intermittently, at a coffee shop in town. I apologize for lack of or slowness in answering questions. According to the…
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Posted inStatistics

Three Cards: One Black, One Red, One Half & Half

Just a short one today, all. I'm heading further North. So far from civilization that when I was a boy, it was a cause to celebrate when a cit thirty…
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