Posted inStatistics
Company Stock And Bond Ratings: Skill and Influential Forecasts
If I tell you that it's not going to rain tomorrow, and it doesn't, then I have given you a successful forecast. If I repeat this success a few times,…
Posted inStatistics
Obama Approval Rating By Religion
Mormons, according to the pollsters Gallup, are more dissatisfied with Mr Obama than are any other group of folk. And not only that: Mormons' dissatisfaction is dropping faster than is…
Posted inStatistics
InterAcademy Council Rebukes IPCC: Pachauri To Resign?
You'll have heard that the InterAcademy Council had a look-see at the inner workings of the IPCC (more on that below). This council, previously unknown to civilization, is, as the…
Posted inStatistics
James Cameron Ducks Global Warming Debate That Never Should Have Been Agreed To
Movie maker James Cameron has called people who don't believe as strongly as he does that the end is nigh "boneheads", which, as insults go, isn't particularly inventive. You would…
Posted inStatistics
The Imperfectibility of Politics: Voting And Unhappiness
You're stuck in a motel because of a business meeting. It's 6 o' the clock post meridian, and you're hungry. The town in which you must linger is small and…
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Chinese War Poker: Bluffs Or Solid Threats?
The United States Navy is going to steam into the Yellow Sea and blow up some Korean warships. But friendly, like, and for fun. Points will be scored, and trophies…
Posted inStatistics
The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann
Many---as in lots and lots---of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks! Gordie Howe---Mr Hockey to you---didn't need his stick, his hockey stick,…
Posted inStatistics
Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability
This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…