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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine
Posted inStatistics

Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine

This one picture proves why you must distrust every new boast from every scientist. Scientists' ideas must be assumed false until they are proven true by people other than themselves.…
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The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate
Posted inStatistics

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…
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Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online
Posted inStatistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…
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Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis
Posted inStatistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…
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Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act
Posted inCulture

Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act

SCENE: A PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITY DRAMATIS PERSONAE: TWO AGING PRESTIGIOUS ACADEMICS "Hey, dude, we're, like scientists. Maybe we should, like, do some research." "Yeah, man. Do research." "Do research. We definitely…
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Coronadoom Misinformation Model Says What It Was Told To Say
Posted inStatistics

Coronadoom Misinformation Model Says What It Was Told To Say

Repeat after me (yes, this includes all you regulars, too): All models only say what they are told to say. Thank you. Now let's see this headline: "COVID-19 misinformation cost…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026

    If our rights derive from God, and if the pope is God's primary interlocutor (Pontifax Maximus) can we sue the…

  2. Robert Arvanitis on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026

    You are correct in one point. The American enterprise, unlike all previous societies, is for all Men. Not based on…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Logic, empiricism, wisdom... These solvents are without impact for people who have, so often, survived them. I believe this is…

  4. spetzer86 on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    It's interesting that the commenters using AI prove the point that the use of a model yielding apparently random results…

  5. JH on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    When brilliant minds join forces with advanced computers that execute tasks with precision and speed by following instructions, they achieve…

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