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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
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Posted inCulture

July 4th: It’s Summer And It’s Hot

[To be sung to the obvious tune] I have a sad story to tell you It might upset you a bit Last night I walked on the sidewalk And it…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Heartland Institute Accomplishes Act To Self Once Thought Physically Impossible

At the risk of losing the argument before it begins, let me ask you two questions. Number One: What do Adolph Hitler, Mao Tse-tung, serial killer and eater Jeffrey Dahmer,…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Why Republicans Deny Science—And Reality: Request For Help

Update The link to Sam Harris's abysmal study are now provided. That is the (modified) subtitle of the sanctimoniously self-satisfied Chris Mooney's new book, "The Republican Brain: The Science of…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

Tennessee Votes To Teach Uncertainty In Science. Result?

What do you think of this? Tennessee has enacted a law (HB 0368-SB 0893) which states (emphasis mine): This bill prohibits the state board of education and any public elementary…
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  1. Uncle Mike on Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)March 12, 2026

    The probability of significant "climate change" in equatorial Africa is very small because most climate change occurs at the poles.…

  2. C-Marie on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026

    Well, I do knpw that Malchi Martin and David McCullough were great authors.... The Final Conclave and John Adams, respectively.…

  3. NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    People have a variety of different reading habits. So the best thing to accommodate that is to preserve a variety…

  4. Johnno on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Briggs, have you tried ONE PIECE ?

  5. Eyrie on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Yep, finding the same thing. Unfortunately many of the good authors have died. We lost Michael F Flynn a couple…

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