Search Results for “chance” – Page 6

Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real

Anon writes: Mr. Briggs, I am trying to understand the statement in the title. It [probability] is a measure of uncertainty. It is a measure of what we know or…

Statistics

Bayesian Yacht Sinks; Connected Man Run Over By Car: A Working Coincidence

So a 184-foot yacht named Bayesian sank while anchored in a freak windstorm off Sicily. Its billionaire owner now sleeps with the fishes. The name of the boat naturally brings…

Culture

Our Next — And Last — President, Gavin “Gruesome” Newsom

Newsweek: Donald Trump Followers Targeted by FBI as 2024 Election Nears The federal government believes that the threat of violence and major civil disturbances around the 2024 U.S. presidential election…

Fun

I Never Received About 15% Of Your Emails

I first describe a bug at the blog, a blog bug, and then show us a few emails we missed. Wordpress Bug & Emails I was cleaning up the blog…

Statistics

Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets

Note: I wrote this on Saturday morning before the events of Sunday hilariously vindicated the conclusions below. My point was to illustrate how bets are not probabilities, though they do…

Statistics

David Hume’s Anti-Miracles Argument Is Poor

David Hume, as you know, wrote on miracles. He didn't like them. Which is to say, he didn't believe them. But then Hume didn't believe we could know any cause.…

Statistics

Register Your Predictions For 2025!

My Dear Friends and Despised Enemies, Happy New Year. As has been our tradition these many years, it’s time to register our predictions for the coming year. We looked at…

Statistics

Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Greetings Doomsters. I am graciously grateful to Brother Briggs for allowing me this gesture to you and for you in this histrionically historical moment during Advent -- quite possibly the…

spetzer86 on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 7, 2025
If you'd like a wide selection of radio stations from around the world: https://radio.garden/visit/tefe-am/JSbjvYLx is pretty fun. It's always amazing…
Briggs on The Unseen Bias In All ScienceJuly 7, 2025
bruce, Absolutely nowhere will you find me "rejecting" IQ. The opposite is the case. I go out of my way,…
bruce g charlton on The Unseen Bias In All ScienceJuly 7, 2025
@WMB - I think you are off on a false trail here. Using "not perfect" as a reason for rejecting…
MikeW on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 7, 2025
Radio is not ending sadly. It is happily transitioning to internet streaming radio. My favorite is the Instrumental Channel on…
C-Marie on The Sad End Of RadioJuly 6, 2025
Right on, Brian (bulaoren)!! It has never been the same without Rush!! God bless, C-Marie