Posted inFun
Top 20 Posts Of All Time: Reader’s Choice
Start of long weekend, where the Nation trips happily outside into the warm summer sun. Well, sun anyway---more or less. Not really summer, either. Turns out the climate change forecasts…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V
Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives—Part II
Update 4 Too late. 10 October 2013. Update 4 Moved this to top because the bill allowing non-doctors to perform abortions is on Gov. Brown's desk. He'll likely sign, but…
Posted inStatistics
Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?
Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled "IPCC statistics ruled illegal" in which he said, "Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
Update See below for main update. The odds of Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) being the next Pope are 1,000 to 1. You may say this is small, but it's…
Posted inStatistics
How Effective Was This Year’s Flu Vaccine?
A reader asks, was this year's flu shot effective? Short answer: Looks to be, but there is no definitive way to know. In order to know definitively for any one…
Posted inStatistics
Obama On Way Out? Romeny Hasn’t A Chance? Last Day of Presidential Voting Study
Today is the last day to participate in the voting study. If you have not already done so, please click below. And please send this to people you know, especially…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
