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Researchers Tell Models To Say People Will Die Without Your Money
Posted inStatistics

Researchers Tell Models To Say People Will Die Without Your Money

Here is how the political magazine Nature opened its article "25 million deaths: what could happen if the US ends global health funding: Models estimate the ginormous potential impact of…
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Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested
Posted inStatistics

Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…
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Class 46: Explanation & Abductive Weakness
Posted inStatistics

Class 46: Explanation & Abductive Weakness

WARNING! If you're attempting to read this via email and not on the site, you might encounter problems: the text might look like gibberish. The LaTeX interpreter, which I need…
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Science: The Bigger The Hole In The Head, The More Politically Active
Posted inStatistics

Science: The Bigger The Hole In The Head, The More Politically Active

One lesson I've worked hard at imparting is that scientists, being generally of slightly above average intelligence, and sometimes more, excel at finding evidence which supports their beliefs. But that…
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A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence
Posted inStatistics

A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence

In my forced isolation, which was in many ways a gift, I took to thinking of my failures to convince people not to use or trust standard statistical evidence. Here…
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The Limitations Of AI: General Or Real Intelligence Is Not Possible
Posted inStatistics

The Limitations Of AI: General Or Real Intelligence Is Not Possible

This is Part II of The Limitations Of AI. See Part I: Predictive Ability. Forgive me this banality, but reminders of the obvious can bring clarity: AI runs on computers.…
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Butter Bad, Seed Oils Good, Says New Study
Posted inStatistics

Butter Bad, Seed Oils Good, Says New Study

Today a paper which proves my contention that governments ought to get out of the grant-making business. The "study" was funded by NIH, and conducted by "top" scientists at Harvard.…
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On Scott Adams’s Vax-Decision Analysis
Posted inStatistics

On Scott Adams’s Vax-Decision Analysis

Dilbert's Scott Adams posted a video on his reasoning behind his decision whether to get vaxed during the covid panic. He concludes that no one is now in a position…
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  1. Johnno on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 9, 2025

    Facts and logic are very diverse things. As diverse as peoples, with diverse facts and diverse ways of logicking. Liberal…

  2. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  3. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  4. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

  5. hudbwu on Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970sNovember 7, 2025

    I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…

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