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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?

When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

We Don’t Know Anything

The Appeal to Authority is not a formal fallacy, but an "informal" one, a fancy way of admitting that arguments in the form of "Because I said so" are often…
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Posted inStatistics

Don’t Say “Natural Variability”

Word that the climate of doom we were promised (repeatedly) has not obtained has begun leaking out. Climatologists have known this for quite some time, but now even environmental activists…
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Posted inStatistics

Yet Another Author Claims Statistically Significant Temperature Change. 99.999%!

Update 6 Sep 2014 Yet another another another study has claimed "statistical significance", this one by Philip Kokica, Steven Crimpc, and Mark Howdend. "A probabilistic analysis of human influence on…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

People’s Climate March: The Face Of True Belief #PeoplesClimate

Nice people Ready for a surprise? I liked everybody I met. I mean it. I liked them so much I hated what I had to write below. I liked the…
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Posted inStatistics

Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.

When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need…
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Posted inStatistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Wrap Up

Profound thanks I cannot say enough about the generosity of my benefactor, who not only footed the bill for my trip, but wined and dined and rummed our Secret Society…
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Posted inStatistics

Global Warming Creating Anxious Fish

Fish the world over are rubbing their fins together and fretting over news of climate change. One day they are told earnestly that the world's oceans are going to boil…
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  1. J. Johnson on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025

    Well you convinced me to never use p-values, and how to articulate to others why they shouldn’t either. I’d say…

  2. Ed on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025

    As a teacher who's seen, in the eyes of many a student (pun intended), the inglorious mist of complete misunderstanding,…

  3. Uncle Mike on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025

    I disagree with your hypothesis that "my career has largely been a failure". You shouldn't expect the world to immediately…

  4. McChuck on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025

    Modern scientific statistics is nothing more than a roleplaying game based on a 20 sided die. The game master (study…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Lacent’s Vaccination Model Says What Its Told To SaySeptember 17, 2025

    Sorry, the same printer's devils who occasionally sabotage Dr. Brigg's publications must have attacked my previous post; Should read; "ouroboros".…

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