Search Results for “heat” – Page 2

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Statistics

How To Cheat, Or Fool Yourself, With Time Series: Climate Example

Update This post of such importance, that it remains on top today. See below for more comments. Presented for your satisfaction, a way to cheat either yourself or others using…

Statistics

Statistics Of Loeb’s “Observed Changes In Top-Of-The-Atmosphere Radiation And Upper-Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty”

The paper is "Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty" by Norman Loeb and others in the journal Nature Geoscience. I'm pressed for time, so for…

Philosophy Statistics

Another Reason To Abandon P-values; Or Another Way To Cheat

If you're a scientist, soft or hard, who routinely uses statistics, it's likely that your funding, and therefore your career, the very wellness of your being hinges on discovering statistically…

Philosophy Statistics

Tolkien Wants A King, Cheating With Statistics

Cheating With Statistics Reader Matt Lewis points us to Planet Moron, to an article which tears apart a statistical argument used by the Washington Post, an argument which sought to…

Philip Rogan on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026
Effective Altruism is something else I've never hard of but apparently has been infecting academic circles for decades. I took…
John M on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026
Thanks for reminding me of that classic Klingon joke!
Rob Potter on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026
Asimov's robot stories are the best example that an artificial intelligence is not intelligence. They were a fabulous way for…
John Pate on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 28, 2026
We should all re-read our Ted Kaczynski materials. A man ahead of his time.
Brian (bulaoren) on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 28, 2026
While in university, I took a class called "Symbolic Logic". Logic was then taught through the Philosophy department, which was…