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The Mathematical Trick Guaranteed To Win You A Nobel Prize
Posted inStatistics

The Mathematical Trick Guaranteed To Win You A Nobel Prize

My friends, the title is not hyperbole. The scheme I present below will work. But it will require some hard work to get there. Which is only proper, since we…
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Making Up Data To Prove Models?
Posted inStatistics

Making Up Data To Prove Models?

There is this idea in statistics called the "bootstrap." The idea is not crazy, but it's not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized…
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Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application
Posted inStatistics

Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application

I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…
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A Doctor Reveals His Wee P
Posted inStatistics

A Doctor Reveals His Wee P

You go into the doc's office. He's not looking happy. He's holding your chart. "Mr Smith, I'm afraid I have some bad news for you." Give it to me straight,…
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Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air
Posted inStatistics

Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air

A toxin, as the redoubtable reader undoubtedly knows, is a poison. And a poison, says Mr Webster, is that which causes "morbid, noxious, or deadly effects". People who ingest or…
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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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Did The Covid Vax, Or Any Vax, Cause ADHD or Autism? Steve Kirsch’s Survey Data Analyzed
Posted inStatistics

Did The Covid Vax, Or Any Vax, Cause ADHD or Autism? Steve Kirsch’s Survey Data Analyzed

This site is mirrored at Substack for those who prefer that format. Introduction Steve Kirsch ran a survey asking parents to say about their kids how many vaccinations of all…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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