We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

I forgot to remind you of this week's What Are The Chances? video. A truck carrying 216,000 dice spilled onto the highway, and they said the total was exactly 756,000.…

Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…

WARNING! If you're attempting to read this via email and not on the site, you might encounter problems: the text might look like gibberish. The LaTeX interpreter, which I need…

In my forced isolation, which was in many ways a gift, I took to thinking of my failures to convince people not to use or trust standard statistical evidence. Here…

Everything, Science says, will kill you or ill you. Or cure you. Last week I gave readers homework to go to scholar.google.com and type in "X 'reduces' risk" (or 'increases')…