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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Difference Between Essential And Empirical Models

I was having a back-and-forth with a colleague on modeling types (see this post for a modeling hierarchy) and falsifiability. It's crucial we distinguish essential and empirical models, but first…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Preface to Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

The book is now at a 15% discount at Amazon (I apologize for the price). Buy today. And buy again tomorrow! This will be linked permanently on the book's official…
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Posted inStatistics

The Hierarchy Of Models: From Causal (Best) To Statistical (Worst)

There is a hierarchy of models in the sense they offer insight into the thing modeled. The order of importance is: causal, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical. Most models use mixtures of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Uncertainty (#1 New Release in Statistics) Book Page — Here Are The Details. Update!

This isn't the book page. This is. Or you can buy it here. The page is permanently located at the menu bar at the top of the page, at the…
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Posted inStatistics

Cluster Failure: Biggest ‘I Told You So’ Yet. fMRI Stinks

As reader Nate Winchester surmised, today, the biggest I Told You So Yet. Headline: "MRI software bugs could upend years of research: This is what your brain looks like on…
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Posted inStatistics

Number 1 Book In Epistemology & In Logic! Get It While It’s Hot!

It's probably gone by now, but for a little while my new book, Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics, was "#1 New Release in Epistemology" then "#1 New…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…
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Posted inStatistics

Brits Psychologists Cry “BS!” Over Research Practices. Or, Die P-Value, Die Die Die

In The British Psychological Society's official organ The Psychologist, two gents Tom Farsides and Paul Sparks, call BS on standard research practices. There is a worrying amount of outright fraud…
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  1. Ray on Science Is Becoming FeelingsNovember 12, 2026

    Remember the old song by Morris Albert? Feelings Nothing more than feelings Trying to forget my Feelings of love ETC.

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    Yes, Happy Veterans Day from Petty Officer First Class John. I look forward to the book! I enjoyed the first.

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    An impressive list that I shall look forward to reading when my wife (or son) buys it for me for…

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    I'm still laughing about "Debolina".

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