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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Is Most Published Research Wrong? Yep. Here’s Why

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q One of my students---my heart soars like a hawk!---sent me the video linked above. I'll assume you've watched it, as my comments make reference to it. About the dismal…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Difference Between Essential And Empirical Models

I was having a back-and-forth with a colleague on modeling types (see this post for a modeling hierarchy) and falsifiability. It's crucial we distinguish essential and empirical models, but first…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Preface to Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

The book is now at a 15% discount at Amazon (I apologize for the price). Buy today. And buy again tomorrow! This will be linked permanently on the book's official…
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Posted inStatistics

The Hierarchy Of Models: From Causal (Best) To Statistical (Worst)

There is a hierarchy of models in the sense they offer insight into the thing modeled. The order of importance is: causal, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical. Most models use mixtures of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Uncertainty (#1 New Release in Statistics) Book Page — Here Are The Details. Update!

This isn't the book page. This is. Or you can buy it here. The page is permanently located at the menu bar at the top of the page, at the…
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Posted inStatistics

Cluster Failure: Biggest ‘I Told You So’ Yet. fMRI Stinks

As reader Nate Winchester surmised, today, the biggest I Told You So Yet. Headline: "MRI software bugs could upend years of research: This is what your brain looks like on…
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Posted inStatistics

Number 1 Book In Epistemology & In Logic! Get It While It’s Hot!

It's probably gone by now, but for a little while my new book, Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics, was "#1 New Release in Epistemology" then "#1 New…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…
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  1. C-Marie on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 24, 2026

    God bless you, dear Matt, and all yours, all the days, and thank you for your faithfulness to our Father,…

  2. spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

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  3. Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…

  4. James on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    The same logic applies to the phenomenon of "ball lightning". It sounds credible, but there are no photos of it…

  5. Uncle Mike on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 21, 2026

    Please enjoy your well-earned respite. Warmth is indeed a boon and blessing -- it's in the eighties here today and…

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