The simple answer to today's titular question is no, Bayesianism cannot quantify true belief. This answer will disappoint the Effective Altruists, Rationalists, many professional statisticians, a score of others, and…

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. Pease don’t feel like you must. Yet, I have…

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. Pease don’t feel like you must. Yet, I have…

A trio of academics, responsible for the paper "Temperature and Maltreatment of Young Children", did not mention Lindsay Clancy by name, but you will forgive my lapse into clickbait titling…

Reminder: no Class until after Labor Day. Headlines blared that children growing up when the UK rationed sugar, a severe act resulting from one of their many wars, caused these…

https://youtu.be/PnW39ywWotc Lyrics [Verse 1]Oh the scientists are publishin', crankin' out those papers fastThey got a tiny pee-value, think they made it at long lastPoint oh five or lower, they shout…

Let's take something silly and turn it into something shiny. And, in doing so, relearn the invaluable lesson that nothing has a probability. Somebody posted this receipt from a sale…