Many think confidence intervals are an improvement over P-values. Not really, no. There is no one alive, or dead, who interprets a confidence interval as theory demands. All (as in…

It would be a good joke to conclude "If Pr(Data we didn't see | Cause false) is small then Cause is true", but it isn't. People believe it. Peers review…

We want Pr(H|Evidence), we get Pr(Data we didn't see | H false). And then everybody pretends they are the same. Why why why. Video https://youtu.be/WIZN3BesJps Links: YouTube * Twitter -…

In the Class, which I know all readers are dutifully following, bless you, I often cite Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations site. It is a glorious (growing) compendium of ridiculous results…

Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

I stole that title, ripped it right off, word-for-word, from the Study Finds website, a source rich in The Science exaggerations. I pulled off this heist because I can't think…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…