Posted inPhilosophy
Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate…
Posted inStatistics
The Claim 37% Of Heat Deaths Are Caused By Global Warming Is Absurd
The media has been reporting that 37% "of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change". They gleaned this from the peer-reviewed paper, "The burden of heat-related mortality…
Posted inStatistics
Statistics (Philosophy) Quiz: See If You Really Know What You’re Doing Using Tests
This is from Gerd Gigerenzer's "Mindless statistics" in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I'm giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer).…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…
Posted inClass Statistics
The Danish Mask Study Shows Masks Aren’t Worth It
HUFFIN', PUFFIN' & BLUFFIN' The blustery squid-stained panicked hersteric Nassim Nicholas Taleb---the man who called those who dared not run around screeching like teenage girls as he did at the…
Posted inStatistics
One Milwaukee Ballot Curiosity & One New Theoretical Voter Fraud Tool
Milwaukee Milwaukee is comprised of a number of wards, almost 500, from which was collected the number of votes each candidate received in both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections…
Posted inStatistics
Computer Models Aren’t Science — Guest Post by Robert Kurland
This piece ran originally at The American Catholic, but Kurland graciously allowed us to re-run it here. It is a topic of deep interest for us. INTRODUCTION We keep reading…
Posted inCulture
The Usefulness Of Historical Analogues: Russian – West Intelligentsia Parallels Example
Ed Lorenz back in 1961 was running, on a computer!, a simple weather model, with twelve full parameters. This was in the days of punch cards and paper print outs.…