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How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
Posted inStatistics

How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty

It's easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I'll show you how. I'll give you the procedure first, then work through…
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Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation

Kevin Gray is back with another question, this time about priors. His last led to the post "Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed." (The answer was…
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Why Much Of Science Is Fake
Posted inStatistics

Why Much Of Science Is Fake

Why is so much of Science now fake? There are many small reasons, but one big one. Our Expertocracy. Here is a small survey proving this. Anon posted a cri…
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More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics

Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any---I said any---dataset x. And all it takes is one---I said…
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Dreaded Delta; Noble Lies In The Name of Science; No Fly List With Mark of the Vex; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXXIII
Posted inStatistics

Dreaded Delta; Noble Lies In The Name of Science; No Fly List With Mark of the Vex; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXXIII

MUCH MORE THAN WE CAN DO There is so much material this week I can't include it all in one update. It would grow far too long. If it can…
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Posted inStatistics

Boris Says Be A Girl For Great Reset; CDC Counts Vaccinated Differently; Kentucky Court Victory; The New HCQ Paper; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXV

JUICING NUMBERS https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1402708260344500226 He who controls the data controls The Science™ (I repeat myself.) WE TOLD YOU SO I don't like recommending long videos, and rarely do it. I recommend…
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Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
Posted inPhilosophy

Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty

This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate…
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The Claim 37% Of Heat Deaths Are Caused By Global Warming Is Absurd
Posted inStatistics

The Claim 37% Of Heat Deaths Are Caused By Global Warming Is Absurd

The media has been reporting that 37% "of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change". They gleaned this from the peer-reviewed paper, "The burden of heat-related mortality…
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