Posted inStatistics
Class 79: Time Series Example
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don't expect all want to read these posts. So please don't feel like you must. Yet, I…
Posted inStatistics
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
The FDA should have gone probability. But they came close. They went Bayes. So announced FDA boss Marty Makar last week. Here's the document "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical…
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Class 74: Contra Effect Sizes
Thanks to whoever sent the Dice (there was no note or name attached). They work! Some are recognizing testing is flawed, but they seek refuge in "effect sizes", which is…
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Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad Dice
This is the most in-depth, complicated Class yet. But it has everything. Every probability problem turns out to be just like asking Pr(Dice loaded|Evidence). I hope you stick by this…
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Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way
Do not conduct or trust any regression, or any probability model, before you understand what "control" means and does NOT mean. NO CLASS NEXT WEEK. Video https://youtu.be/_ON42EEGrb4 Links: YouTube *…
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Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way
Claims of control are almost always false or misleading. "Controlling for" sex or age or anything in probability models is not true control. It's just adding things to models. Vast…
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Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG Way
Be sure to review the RIGHT way from last week. Today, of the infinite number of ways to go sour, we look at one common way modeling goes awry. Video…