Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don't expect all want to read these posts. So please don't feel like you must. Yet, I…

The FDA should have gone probability. But they came close. They went Bayes. So announced FDA boss Marty Makar last week. Here's the document "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical…

Thanks to whoever sent the Dice (there was no note or name attached). They work! Some are recognizing testing is flawed, but they seek refuge in "effect sizes", which is…

This is the most in-depth, complicated Class yet. But it has everything. Every probability problem turns out to be just like asking Pr(Dice loaded|Evidence). I hope you stick by this…

Do not conduct or trust any regression, or any probability model, before you understand what "control" means and does NOT mean. NO CLASS NEXT WEEK. Video https://youtu.be/_ON42EEGrb4 Links: YouTube *…

Claims of control are almost always false or misleading. "Controlling for" sex or age or anything in probability models is not true control. It's just adding things to models. Vast…

Be sure to review the RIGHT way from last week. Today, of the infinite number of ways to go sour, we look at one common way modeling goes awry. Video…

If you cite, enjoy, or create "research" or "studies", this post is a must. I've eschewed all math (given next time in The Wrong Way) and focused entirely on the…