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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…
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Why “The Science” Settled On “Carbon”
Posted inStatistics

Why “The Science” Settled On “Carbon”

The answer to the question Why "The Science" Settled On "Carbon" is easy. The Science settled on "carbon" because it's easy. See? Easy is the answer, as promised. Now that…
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The Great Grand Bluff Of Science
Posted inPhilosophy

The Great Grand Bluff Of Science

Everybody knows the story of the turtles. The earth is held up by four large elephants, some say, which stand on the shell of an enormous turtle. When asked what…
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How Saying “Food Production Battered By Climate Change” Illustrates The Corruption Of The American Regime
Posted inStatistics

How Saying “Food Production Battered By Climate Change” Illustrates The Corruption Of The American Regime

In an interview with Ed Luttwak, who is always worth listening to, he being one of those rare souls that crop up in history who seem to know everybody important,…
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The Disparagement Of Epidemiology
Posted inStatistics

The Disparagement Of Epidemiology

I was having an argument with a friend who was on his way to a conference to point out the shortcomings and over-confidence of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). With EBM,…
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How To Generate Massive Scientific Over-Certainty With These Four Simple Tricks
Posted inStatistics

How To Generate Massive Scientific Over-Certainty With These Four Simple Tricks

Update This must be more difficult than I thought, judging by lack of questions or comments. If you do not understand, ask. Here is a picture of what they are…
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