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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Does The Regression Equation Mean? Causality? Something Else?

Saw this tweet this fine morning: https://twitter.com/MarkThoma/status/276542962622668800 and downloaded the paper at the landing site, co-authored by Judea Pearl, he of Causality fame (a recommended book). Pearl and a co-author…
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Posted inStatistics

Machine Learning, Big Data, Deep Learning, Data Mining, Statistics, Decision & Risk Analysis, Probability, Fuzzy Logic FAQ

Last Updated 3 December 2012, 7:24 AM EST. What's the difference between machine learning, deep learning, big data, statistics, decision & risk analysis, probability, fuzzy logic, and all the rest?…
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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inStatistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…
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Posted inStatistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Teaching Journal: Day 9—Hypothesis Testing: Part II

A review. We have sales data from two campaigns, A and B, data in which we choose (as a premise) to quantify our uncertainty with normal distributions. We assume the…
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